Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - Merry Christmas!
Table of Contents 📖
"Let's also have maybe a somber moment to remember those who have given their lives for freedom. And I think ultimately for us."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:33⏩
Jonathan introduces the video, which is the Ukraine War News Update for Christmas Day, December 25th, 2024. He wishes everyone a Merry Christmas and asks viewers to spare a thought for those fighting on the front lines in Ukraine. He mentions that he needs to keep the video relatively brief so he doesn't end up in the oven with the Christmas turkey.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - Ukrainian General Staff Figures
🎦 00:33-01:31⏩
Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, noting a significant downtick across most categories compared to recent averages, except for personnel losses, which remain high at 1,600. He provides the following figures:
- Personnel: 1,600 (high)
- Tanks: 4 (down from average)
- Armoured Personnel Vehicles: 8 (down from average)
- Artillery Systems: 10 (about half the daily average)
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 31 (fairly low)
- Special Equipment: 0
Jonathan speculates whether the decrease is due to Christmas, the weather, or other factors.
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Russian Losses - Andrew Perpetua Figures (23rd December)
🎦 01:31-03:08⏩, 06:46-07:53⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's loss list for December 23rd, which shows 203 visually confirmed Russian personnel losses, one of the highest figures Jonathan has seen recorded by Andrew Perpetua. He explains the difference between the Ukrainian General Staff figures and Andrew Perpetua's figures, highlighting the time lag and the different sources used. He emphasises that Andrew Perpetua's figures are based on visually confirmed losses from social media, which may not reflect the actual losses on a given day. Jonathan provides a breakdown of the losses, noting that it was a particularly bad day for the Russians in terms of combat asset losses with approximately 3 to 1 ratio in losses, and about 5 to 1 in personnel losses which made for a "really good day" for the Ukrainians.
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Clarification of Loss Figures
🎦 03:08-06:46⏩
Jonathan clarifies how the Ukrainian General Staff and Andrew Perpetua compile their loss figures. The General Staff receives visual evidence from its units, while Andrew Perpetua and his team monitor social media for videos and images of losses. Jonathan explains that the time lag between the actual event and its appearance on social media can be several days, weeks, or even months. He emphasizes that these figures provide an indication of trends and ratios rather than exact numbers for a specific day. Jonathan also clarifies that not all losses reported by the General Staff will appear on social media due to operational security and agreements with allies regarding certain weapons systems.
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Ukrainian Losses - Andrew Perpetua Figures (23rd December)
🎦 07:53-08:47⏩
Jonathan analyses the Ukrainian losses, highlighting the following:
- Tanks: 1 Leopard 2A4 abandoned, 2 other tanks (TATBVs) destroyed.
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles: 2 out of 4 destroyed, including YPR 765s (upgraded Dutch version of the American M113s) and a BMP-1, BRM-1K.
- Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs): Several M113s (abandoned), FV103s (abandoned), and an abandoned Stryker.
- MRAPs: 1 captured Max Pro, 1 abandoned Kozak 2M1, and 2 damaged Kozaks.
- Infantry Mobility Vehicles: Less armoured than MRAPs, used for troop transport.
Jonathan notes that the Ukrainian losses include a significant amount of Western equipment.
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Russian Losses - Andrew Perpetua Figures (23rd December) Continued
🎦 08:48-10:47⏩
Jonathan continues to analyse the Russian losses, highlighting the following:
- Artillery: 1 self-propelled gun (Mr. B), 3 towed howitzers (M46, D20, D30).
- Tanks: 11 tanks (T-80s, T-72s, including some with mine rollers), with 6 destroyed or abandoned.
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles: Over 20, mostly destroyed or abandoned, including BTR-82s, BMP-1s, BMP-2s, and a single BMP-3.
- APCs: Several MTLBs.
- MRAPs: 3 out of 4 ZSTS Akhmats destroyed or abandoned.
- ATVs and Civilian Vehicles: Numerous Desert Cross 1000-3 golf buggies, quads, Ladas, pickup trucks, and motorcycles, many used in combat roles.
Jonathan notes that the Russians are experiencing heavy losses in infantry fighting vehicles, particularly BTR-82s, BMP-1s, and BMP-2s, which are being pulled from long-term storage. He mentions reports that Russia may face a critical shortage of these vehicles by the second quarter of 2025.
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Russian Use of Civilian Vehicles for Assaults
🎦 10:47-11:38⏩
Jonathan discusses a video showing Russian forces using civilian vehicles, including Ladas with improvised "cope cages," for assaults. He interprets this as a sign of desperation and a lack of proper armoured vehicles. He compares the modifications to something out of "Mad Max" and suggests that the Russians would be using MRAPs if they had them available.
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Large Batch of Dead Russian Soldiers at Ulyanovsk Airfield
🎦 11:38-12:28⏩
Jonathan reports on information from a driver who transports bodies, stating that a batch of 180 corpses was delivered to Ulyanovsk Airfield. He sees this as another piece of evidence supporting the conclusion that Russia is suffering significant losses in personnel and equipment but is able to replenish them in large numbers. He poses the question of who will win this "game of attrition chicken."
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Russian Su-25 Collides with Zala Reconnaissance Drone
🎦 12:28-13:16⏩
Jonathan reports on a collision between a Russian Su-25 aircraft and a Zala reconnaissance drone in Donetsk. The Su-25 was reportedly damaged but managed to land. Jonathan shares an image of the damaged aircraft, noting loose screws in the body. The source/date of the image is unclear.
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Ukrainian Su-25 Lands After Being Damaged
🎦 13:17-13:52⏩
Jonathan mentions a video of a Ukrainian Su-25 from the 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade landing after being damaged. He is unsure if this is a recent event or an older video.
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Sudanese Forces Shoot Down Russian Aircraft
🎦 13:53-14:04⏩
Jonathan reports that Sudanese forces shot down a Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft using a Soviet Strela-2 SAM system. He suggests that this indicates that Russia is experiencing attrition not only in Ukraine but also in other regions where they are active, such as Sudan.
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Azerbaijani Airlines Plane Crashes in Kazakhstan
🎦 14:04-15:36⏩
Jonathan reports on the crash of an Azerbaijani Airlines plane en route from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya. The plane crashed in Western Kazakhstan after reportedly hitting a bird. 28 out of 67 passengers survived. Jonathan shares video footage of the crash from Telegram. The Russian aviation watchdog attributed the crash to a bird strike, but Jonathan speculates whether it could be related to a lack of aviation maintenance in Russia.
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Arson Attacks in Russia
🎦 15:36-16:45⏩
Jonathan reports on two arson attacks in Russia:
- United Russia Office: The office of the United Russia party in Arkhangelsk was set on fire with a Molotov cocktail.
- Bank: A pensioner was seen lighting fireworks inside a bank branch in Tula. Police claim she was a victim of scammers.
Jonathan also mentions a powerful explosion and fire at the Alanya Mall shopping centre in Vladikavkaz, Russia. He notes that there have been many such incidents recently and that they are indicative of something significant happening within Russia.
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Russian Missile and Drone Attack on Christmas Day
🎦 16:45-17:39⏩
Jonathan discusses the Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine on Christmas Day. He notes that the attack was expected, as Ukraine now celebrates Christmas on December 25th, and Russia often uses symbolic dates for attacks. He provides the following breakdown of the attack:
- Drones: 106 drones launched, 54 shot down by conventional means, 52 stopped through electronic warfare (100% success rate).
- Missiles: 78 missiles launched, including:
- 0 out of 2 KN-23 North Korean ballistic missiles intercepted.
- 0 out of 10 S-300/S-400 surface-to-air missiles intercepted.
- 55 out of 62 Kalibr cruise missiles intercepted.
- 4 out of 4 aerial guided bombs intercepted.
- Jonathan notes that several missiles got through, and that energy infrastructure was targeted and hit.
Targets of the Russian Missile and Drone Attack
🎦 17:39-18:41⏩
Jonathan shows the routes of the missiles and drones used in the attack. He notes that many targeted Poltava, Kharkiv, and Lviv. He mentions that energy infrastructure was a primary target.
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Zelensky's Statement on the Attack
🎦 18:41-19:28⏩
Jonathan shares Ukrainian President Zelensky's statement on the attack. Zelensky confirmed that over 70 missiles (including ballistic missiles) and over 100 strike drones were launched, targeting the energy sector. He stated that over 50 missiles and a significant portion of the drones were shot down. Zelensky acknowledged that there were outages in several regions and that energy workers were working to restore power.
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Aftermath of the Attack
🎦 19:28-20:31⏩
Jonathan describes the aftermath of the attack:
- Dnipropetrovsk: One death reported.
- Kharkiv: Hit by S-400/S-300 missiles, leaving around half a million people without power or heat. Four people were injured.
- Kyiv: Falling debris caused damage.
- Moldova/Romania: A Kh-101 missile spent about two hours in Moldovan and Romanian airspace before landing in a field in Ukraine.
Russian Strike on Kryvyi Rih
🎦 20:32-20:54⏩
Jonathan reports on a Russian strike on a residential building in Kryvyi Rih, which he believes occurred before the Christmas Day attack. He notes that Kryvyi Rih has been targeted frequently recently.
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Ukrainian Strikes in Chechnya and Kursk
🎦 20:55-22:37⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian strikes in Chechnya and Kursk:
- Chechnya: A Ukrainian A-22 Foxbat (converted attack aircraft used as a long-range drone) was reportedly shot down by a Pantsir S-1 air defence system in the Shali region. Jonathan notes that Grozny has also been targeted recently.
- Kursk: The towns of Rylsk and Lgov were attacked. These towns are staging posts for the Russian forces in the Kursk salient. Ukrainian Stratcom reported hitting a Russian command post and a building housing the 810th Marine Brigade in Lgov.
Jonathan mentions that there may have been other Ukrainian strikes overnight but lacks details.
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Shakhtynsk Oil Plant Update
🎦 22:38-23:38⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Shakhtynsk oil plant, which was previously reported to have shut down. Satellite imagery shows that only one oil tank was hit and destroyed. However, Jonathan speculates that other equipment or underground infrastructure may have been damaged, leading to the plant's shutdown. He reiterates his belief that such targets should be hit with a large number of projectiles to overwhelm defences and completely disable them.
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Russian Attacks Across the Dnipro River in Kherson
🎦 23:38-24:10⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces are attempting to storm across the Dnipro River in Kherson three to five times a day, according to Kaj Kallan. He expresses concern that Russia is throwing everything they have at the front, possibly before January 20th. He mentions that a road he recently travelled on in Kharkiv is now under Russian control and that Ukraine needs significant support.
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Power Outages in Ukraine
🎦 24:11-24:22⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine will experience scheduled power outages until the end of the day due to the heavy targeting of its power infrastructure.
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Wrap up
🎦 24:22-25:39⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and asking viewers to spare a thought for those who have given their lives for freedom. He expresses hope for a more successful year for Ukraine in the coming year and improved support from allied countries. He mentions that he may release a video later with footage of ATP Geopolitics trucks sent to Ukraine. He signs off by saying "Toodlepips."
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