Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Massive Ukrainian Drone Strikes
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Ukraine is the single greatest terrorist threat facing the United States."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:37⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video.
- He mentions that this is part one of the Ukraine War Update NEWS video for the 11th of March 2025.
- He had a "heavy night" in the pub with a friend (Mark S) who has been watching his videos.
- He gives a shout out to Mark S and David M and thanks them for the company and "multiple pints" (and a "couple of ports at the end")
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Equipment and Personnel Losses
🎦 00:38-04:02⏩
- Jonathan provides the daily update of Russian losses based on figures from the Ukrainian General Staff, adding his usual caveats.
- Personnel losses are up slightly, with 1,300 Russian personnel losses.
- Equipment losses are "good across the board", with 11 tanks (above average), 23 armoured fighting vehicles, 75 artillery systems ("insanely high" and four times the average), 2 MLRS, 1 anti-aircraft system, 134 vehicles and fuel tanks and 2 pieces of special equipment.
- Drone losses are high at 198, reflecting activity over a 48 hour period.
- Jonathan reviews the 30-day rolling average figures for Russian equipment losses compiled by researcher Dell.
- This shows that the number of artillery pieces destroyed (75) is close to the record high (81).
- 198 drones were destroyed - 43 less than the record high (241).
- - Jonathan notes that the trend line for artillery losses has increased throughout 2024/early 2025, with a reduction over the winter (December) before ticking up again to its current high level.
Ukraine: Increased Use of Drones and New Footage of UAS Ceph
🎦 04:03-06:06⏩
- Jonathan reports that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian targets increased by 22% in February, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi
- Syrskyi states that first-person view (FPV) and multi-rotor bomber drones are the most effective.
- Jonathan believes that Ukraine is substituting humans with drones to reduce risk to troops, creating a 20km corridor along the frontlines where it is difficult for Russian forces to operate.
- Footage has emerged of a new Ukrainian-made drone - the UAS Ceph - in action, which is already having an impact. The drone is fully automated, easy to operate and resembles a smaller version of the Iranian Shahed drone.
Russia: Use of Disguised A-50U Aircraft
🎦 06:06-07:39⏩
- Jonathan discusses the recent reappearance of a Russian A-50U disguised aircraft (long-range radar detection), which had been largely absent since Ukraine destroyed two near Mariupol.
Kursk: Russian Use of Aircraft, HIMARS Strikes and Ukrainian Retreat
🎦 07:39-08:16⏩
- Jonathan believes that Ukrainian forces have pulled back from Kursk.
- Footage from Clash Report shows three Russian helicopters and two jets operating in the skies over Kursk.
- Jonathan speculates that the Ukrainian retreat from Kursk may be connected to the reported lack of US offensive intelligence.
Black Sea: French and British Reconnaissance Aircraft Activity Near Crimea
🎦 08:16-11:45⏩
- For over a week, Russian forces have been aware of French Mirage 2000D aircraft (not Ukrainian) operating over the Black Sea and near to the air defence base in Kaliningrad.
- Operating from Romania and Poland, the Mirage aircraft can detect the location of enemy radar and air defence systems.
- A Ukrainian Telegram source reported by French Air Ukraine states that a Mirage 2000D was flown to a Romanian airbase after Ukraine received Mirage 2000-5Fs.
- The aircraft was not intercepted by Russian forces, even when near to the coast of Crimea.
- A British reconnaissance aircraft was also operating over the Black Sea, gathering intelligence data.
- Jonathan notes that a Channel 4 documentary series called Top Guns: Inside the RAF features footage of two British Eurofighter Typhoon jets flying from Romania to join a UK AWACS-style aircraft from RAF Waddington in the UK, The three aircraft flew close to Crimea.
- Jonathan believes that the French and British aircraft are helping the Ukrainians by gaining intelligence on Russian air defence systems in the region, highlighting subsequent strikes on S-400 positions and radars in Crimea.
Ukraine and Russia: Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 11:45-12:58⏩
- Overnight, Russia launched 126 Shahed drones at Ukraine, of which 79 were destroyed and 35 suppressed by electronic warfare. 12 drones (10%-12%) are believed to have got through.
- Jonathan has no information on what damage was caused.
- Russia also launched ballistic missiles, one of which was shot down by Ukraine.
- Tim White posted footage of the skies above Kramatorsk, commenting that Russia is continuing to try to destroy everything and everyone in free Donetsk.
Russia: Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Attack
🎦 12:58-19:04⏩
- Jonathan reports that there was a "massive" Ukrainian drone attack on Russia last night.
- He believes that the attack was timed to coincide with Ukraine's meeting with US officials in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia to discuss peace negotiations and demonstrate that a ceasefire would be beneficial. One of Ukraine's proposals is a partial ceasefire of the skies and seas.
- Jonathan questions whether the lack of imagery of damage in Russia is because the strikes were successful or whether Russia's electronic warfare and air defence capabilities were effective in preventing damage.
- Explosions were reported in Moscow, Kursk, Belgorod, Orel, Lipetsk, Bryansk, and Ryazan. Drones reportedly struck apartments near Moscow, and there were reports of a fire in a factory car park. Train traffic was also halted. HIMARS reportedly struck Kursk (which may indicate that restrictions on their use in the region have been lifted following Ukraine's withdrawal) and explosions were heard near an airfield in Ryazan.
- Russia's Defence Ministry has stated that 337 drones were shot down in 10 regions, making it the largest drone attack on Russia in 2025.
- 91 drones were reportedly shot down over Moscow.
- Clash Report published figures for the number of drones shot down in other areas: Kursk (126), Bryansk (38), Belgorod (25), Ryazan (22), Kaluga (10), Lipetsk (8) Orel (8), Voronezh (6) and Nizhny Novgorod (3).
- Le Monde reported that the drone attack was carried out by Ukraine to regain US support. However, Jonathan believes it was intended to convince the US that a ceasefire would be beneficial.
- Despite footage from Max24 of explosions in several locations, Jonathan believes that damage from the attacks was not extensive and that most, if not all, of the drones targeting Moscow, in particular, would have struggled to hit their targets. He points to footage of burning cars and car parks.
- However, he acknowledges that further battle damage assessments may emerge.
- Ukrainian drones struck an oil depot in Orel and Diaghilevo airfield near Ryazan (which has been targeted previously), which may have sustained some damage.
- A strike also hit Shevukino (which Jonathan believes is the town located just over the border in Russia)
- In response, Russia has threatened to launch an Ereshnik missile strike on Ukraine.
- The head of the State Duma Defence Committee urged Putin to authorise the launch of "preferably more than one" Ereshnik missile.
- Jonathan believes that this indicates that Russia has very few of these missiles.
Ukraine: Syrskyi on Peace Talks, Troop Withdrawals and Risk of Encirclement
🎦 19:04-20:18⏩
- Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has said that Ukraine will propose a ceasefire in the skies and seas during peace talks.
- He added that Ukrainian units in Kupyansk and Lyman are not currently at risk of encirclement.
- Jonathan notes that operational withdrawals are risky manoeuvres that can easily turn into a rout, with the loss of equipment and troops. This is because it is difficult to withdraw from a salient without leaving equipment behind.
- Jonathan believes that the speed of Ukraine's withdrawal from the Kursk salient will likely have resulted in the loss of equipment and troops, as well as a captured Abrams tank.
Ukraine: China Reports on Ukrainian Army for the First Time
🎦 20:18-21:37⏩
- Jonathan notes that China is reporting from Ukraine for the first time, having previously reported from the Russian side of the occupied territories.
- Ukraine Frontline reported that China's state television channel, Phoenix TV, has produced a report on the Ukrainian army.
- Jonathan speculates that this could signal a shift in China's position, with the country realising that Russia is losing influence in Europe and that there is an opportunity to increase its own. This could result in an increase in empathy from China for Ukraine's position.
- However, he acknowledges that this could be overanalysing the situation.
US: Peace Talks in Saudi Arabia and Comments from Marco Rubio
🎦 21:37-23:23⏩
- Jonathan discusses the peace talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, reporting that US Senator Marco Rubio believes that Russia cannot conquer Ukraine and that it would be difficult for Ukraine to remove Russian forces completely.
- Rubio also said that the only way to end the war would be for Ukraine to cede territory.
- Jonathan believes that this plays into Russia's hands and undermines Ukraine's negotiating position.
- He adds that former US National Security Advisor Steve Witkoff, who is also in Moscow this week to meet Putin, is likely to be "mauled".
US: Mark Kelly and Elon Musk Twitter Spat
🎦 23:23-27:12⏩
- Jonathan discusses comments made by US Senator Mark Kelly (Arizona) following his recent visit to Ukraine, and the subsequent Twitter spat with Elon Musk, who called Kelly a "traitor".
- Jonathan condemns Musk's comments, calling him an "evil, evil human". He plans to report on this in more detail in a separate video.
- Jonathan criticises the position taken by former US President Donald Trump in stating that Ukraine will not be able to take back all its territory and will never be a member of NATO. He believes that these comments undermine Ukraine's negotiating position.
- Jonathan plays a clip of Senator Kelly being interviewed, in which he reiterates his view that Putin will continue to try to take territory from other countries unless stopped and that he respects strength.
- Kelly states that the US is trying to raise awareness of the situation with the American people, highlighting the dangers of Russia and that the current US administration is colluding with the enemy.
- Jonathan agrees with Kelly's assessment.
- He expresses disbelief over Marco Rubio's comment to reporters that the US will not be providing military aid to Russia. He believes that this reveals how polarised the situation in the US has become, with prominent figures such as Musk, Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr. openly criticising Ukraine.
- He highlights a tweet from Cernovich, which states that Ukraine is "the single greatest terrorist threat facing the United States" and that Ukrainian oligarchs would use neo-Nazi militias to terrorise the US into providing financial assistance.
- Jonathan condemns the rhetoric from the MAGA crowd, stating that there is no evidence to support these claims, describing the comments as "disgusting" and "unconscionable".
International: US Uninvited from Military Summit in Paris
🎦 27:12-28:39⏩
- Jonathan reports that 30 European and NATO countries are meeting in Paris today to discuss military assistance for Ukraine. He finds it "fascinating" that the US has not been invited, according to reports.
- Whilst acknowledging that the meeting is not a NATO summit, Jonathan questions whether the US would have been excluded six months ago.
- Call to Activism tweeted that they are unsure why the US was not invited.
- Hody Kropla believes that the US has been "benched" for "colluding with the enemy".
- Whilst acknowledging that it is a European event, Jonathan suspects that this is a response to US isolationism.
- No Report and the Associated Press have reported that the US has been uninvited to the summit, which will discuss the creation of an international security force for Ukraine.
- Jonathan describes this as "incredible".
Twitter: DDoS Attack on Platform
🎦 28:39-31:32⏩
- Jonathan mentions that he experienced problems loading Twitter yesterday.
- This was due to a cyberattack (suspected DDoS) on the platform, which Musk claimed was "massive" and involved the use of considerable resources. Musk stated that Twitter is attacked every day and suggested that a country or a coordinated group could be behind the attack.
- Musk then suggested that the IP address originated from "the Ukraine area", prompting a wave of memes on the platform. He has not provided any evidence to support his claim.
- However, a pro-Palestinian hacker group called Dark Storm has since claimed responsibility for the attack.
- One journalist has been in contact with Dark Storm, and there appears to be no connection with Ukraine.
- Jonathan criticises Musk's comments, pointing to the context in which they were made and describing him as "despicable".
- Some people defended Musk, claiming that he hadn't blamed Ukraine, to which Jonathan responded "that's what you heard".
- When one user highlighted that Musk had merely stated a fact that the IP address came from Ukraine, Jonathan responded, "I don't know" and "I'm fairly sure", implying that he believes Musk's intention was to blame Ukraine.
- Jonathan sarcastically states that Ukraine is blamed for everything before expressing his sadness.
- Another Twitter user, commenting on Musk's vague use of "the Ukraine area", sarcastically points out that the IPs could have originated from Europe or the Transcaucasus and describes Musk as thinking "like an effing teenager".
- Jonathan agrees, stating "absolutely ridiculous".
US: Stock Market Crash
🎦 31:32-32:47⏩
- Jonathan reports that the US stock market experienced a crash, although it has rallied slightly since.
- He reflects on the events of the last six weeks, alluding to the change in the US administration. Although the Trump administration is blaming President Biden, Jonathan highlights that the market crash is a result of their actions. He finds it incredible that the Trump administration is blaming Biden for something that happened when they were in power.
Wrap Up
🎦 32:47-33:31⏩
- Jonathan concludes that unfortunately, the US has changed direction in the last six weeks and has decided to "get into bed" with Russia, against the wishes of its allies and Ukraine.
- He believes that there are trade wars with everyone apart from Russia, that military aid to allies has been shut down and that assistance is going to the enemy.
- Jonathan finishes by saying "I don't know. Crazy times we live in. Crazy times", before asking viewers for their thoughts.
- He signs off by reminding viewers about the NAFO fundraising campaign for trucks (for which he still needs to record a video) and thanks them for watching.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Who is Hody Krapola? Is this a misspelling?
Who are Call to Activism?
Who is Cernovich?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Ok, so this is a multi-part summary of a video transcript from Jonathan's channel ATP Geopolitics.
I need to ensure the following for all tasks:
British English spellings are used (EN-GB)
Ukrainian spellings of placenames are used (not Russian)
TASK 1
Extract the title, date and part number from the Youtube Video title:
Title: Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Massive Ukrainian Drone Strikes
Date: 11/03/2025
Part: A
TASK 2
Split the transcript into topics by subject/region/news item with a specific and granular , ensuring topics with different subjects are not combined. Number each topictitle sequentially from 1.
Combine Jonathan's intro at the start (topictitle id=1: "Hello Team") and outro at the end (topictitle: "Wrap Up")
TASK 3
Identify the timestamps for each topic in the format MM:SS (for timestamps less than 1 hour) or HH:MM:SS (for timestamps over 1 hour), separating multiple timeframes with a comma.
TASK 4
Summarise the key points for each topic from TASK 2, using bullet points. Include context, opinions, sources/credits as well as Jonathan's reasoning/philosophy. Ensure Ukrainian spellings are used.
TASK 5
Choose a quote from the transcript, ensuring it's concise and makes sense out of context and is formatted properly
TASK 6
Make a note of anything that wasn't understood and needs clarifying.
