Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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"If you are sending all your missiles against one air defense system at the expense of actually hitting anything else in Ukraine, job done."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine War for May 17, 2023. He will focus on the Patriot air defense system and the damage caused to it.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
The Russian losses for the previous day were significant:
- 610 personnel liquidated
- 9 tanks (an uptick)
- 17 APCs/IFVs (massive loss, high attrition continues)
- 16 artillery systems (being hammered, likely due to Ukrainian activities around Bakhmut flanks)
- 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems
- 16 drones
- 9 cruise missiles
- 19 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 7 pieces of special equipment (increasing recently)
Patriot Air Defense System Damage
A U.S. Patriot air defense system in Kyiv was likely damaged but not destroyed in the recent Russian missile barrage. The U.S. is assessing the extent of the damage to determine if it needs to be pulled back or can be repaired on site by Ukrainians. Video footage suggests some munitions cooked off. Experts believe the damage is not huge and the system is unlikely to be removed from Ukraine. The Russians claimed a Kinzhal missile destroyed the Patriot system, but this is disputed. Putting the attack in context, it appears Russia prioritized attempting to neutralize Ukraine's air defenses. However, this likely cost Russia more than Ukraine, as Russia expended many expensive, hard-to-replace missiles. Ukraine still maintains a 100% interception rate. The attack shows Russia is in a difficult position, having to use up dwindling stockpiles of their best missiles against air defenses rather than hitting targets in Kyiv. This asymmetry favors Ukraine as Russia struggles to replenish losses compared to Ukraine.
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Other Updates
- FPV drones continue to be very effective, taking out many Russian vehicles and equipment, especially in Marinka
- Ukraine has started using UK-provided Storm Shadow long-range missiles to strike Russian targets
- The UK will send Ukraine custom-built suicide drones with 125 mile range in coming months
- UK and Netherlands agree to build coalition to provide Ukraine with F-16s and pilot training; Belgium willing to train pilots but not provide aircraft yet
- Zelensky's office says Ukraine does not yet have enough equipment to launch counteroffensive; unclear if genuine or information warfare
- Russia moving massive amounts of equipment to rear of front lines in preparation for expected Ukrainian offensive
- Georgians protested government's decision to resume flights from Russia
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support, likes, subscriptions, and comments. He appreciates the channel members and those who have upgraded their memberships.
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