Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It is God's grace transmitted exclusively through Gazprom pipes."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:37⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers back to his channel, ATP Geopolitics, for a Ukraine War news update. He acknowledges the late start, attributing it to family matters, specifically his father's recent dementia diagnosis.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:37-04:06⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's reported Russian losses, emphasizing the importance of remembering the human cost of war. He notes the high personnel losses (1,210) and analyzes the significance of trends in visually confirmed data versus the General Staff figures, arguing for their consistency and reliability. He highlights a spike in Russian vehicle and fuel tank losses, correlating it with previous trends observed in Prokrosk. Jonathan directly addresses those who might dismiss the figures as propaganda, asserting that evidence and data support their validity.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Losses
🎦 04:06-08:52⏩
Jonathan examines Ukrainian losses based on Oryx's visually confirmed data. He points out the destruction of a significant number of IFVs, APCs, MRAPs, including a German Marder, a French VAB, an American Stryker, Humvees, a MaxPro, and an Australian Bushmaster. He attributes these losses to the inherent risks of offensive maneuver warfare. Jonathan analyzes the types of equipment lost by both sides, noting the high number of destroyed Russian artillery pieces, suggesting targeted strikes. He observes an increase in captured equipment on both sides, highlighting its zero-sum nature, particularly beneficial for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Pilot's Admission on Drone Threat
🎦 09:22-10:43⏩
Jonathan discusses a Russian fighter-bomber pilot's online commentary, highlighting the pilot's admission that Ukrainian drones are increasingly problematic for Russian helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft. The pilot acknowledges that drones are now a greater threat to Russian aircraft than anti-aircraft missiles, forcing pilots to alter their behavior and fly less efficiently.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Drone Precision Strike Footage
🎦 10:43-11:55⏩
Jonathan presents footage of a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian bunker near Robotyne. He praises the incredible accuracy of the drone, which drops a small explosive device directly into the bunker's entrance. He contrasts this precision strike capability with the limitations of artillery bombardment.
Return to top⤴️
Ratio of Losses in Kursk vs Prokrosk
🎦 11:56-14:33⏩
Jonathan analyzes the contrasting ratios of losses between the Kursk and Prokrosk fronts. He notes that in Prokrosk, the ratio heavily favored Ukraine (5:1), while in Kursk, it was initially worse for Ukraine but has become more balanced (currently 65 Ukrainian losses to 40 Russian). He speculates that as Russia increases counterattacks in Kursk, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian combat assets will likely increase Russian equipment losses, potentially bringing the ratio closer to parity.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Pontoon Bridges
🎦 14:33-16:55⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian attacks on Russian pontoon bridges across the Seversky Donets River, a strategically important waterway. He cites Andrew Perpetua's explanation that the disappearance of a pontoon bridge doesn't necessarily indicate destruction, as they are frequently moved. However, he then presents imagery of a Russian pontoon bridge being targeted by Ukrainian HIMARS, specifically a cluster munition variant, causing significant damage to the bridge and a nearby engineering vehicle. Jonathan highlights the effectiveness of these attacks in thwarting Russian attempts to establish river crossings.
Return to top⤴️
Overnight Strikes: Russian S-300 Destroyed, Ukrainian Shopping Center Fire
🎦 17:29-19:44⏩
Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian strike against a Russian S-300 air defense system near Novoshakhtinsk in Russia's Rostov region. He contrasts eyewitness accounts of the attack with the Rostov governor's denial of any damage, emphasizing his skepticism towards official Russian narratives. He also mentions a fire at a shopping center in Kyiv, expressing concern about potential pro-Russian arson, which has been reported elsewhere in Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Proletarsk Oil Depot Fire Continues, "Level 9 Wizards" Called In
🎦 19:44-26:08⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the ongoing fire at the Proletarsk oil depot in Russia, which has been burning for four days. He notes the discrepancy between local authorities' claims of control and the reality of the uncontained fire. He sarcastically describes Russian efforts to extinguish the blaze as involving "level 9 wizards" and their "spells," highlighting the apparent ineffectiveness of their attempts.
Return to top⤴️
Shift in Russian Attack Patterns on Sumy and Donetsk
🎦 26:08-27:57⏩
Jonathan analyzes data indicating a shift in Russian attack patterns. He observes that Sumy Oblast is experiencing fewer attacks from Kursk, likely due to Ukrainian incursions in the region, but more from Belgorod. He also notes increased Russian ground attacks in the Donetsk Oblast, specifically the Prokrosk sector, suggesting a concentrated effort to capture the remaining parts of the region. This aligns with Russia's strategic priorities, as they are likely reallocating forces from less successful fronts to reinforce their positions in Donetsk and counter Ukrainian advances in Kursk.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Advance into Kursk and Potential for Further Gains
🎦 27:57-29:47⏩
Jonathan cites General Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, stating that Ukrainian forces have advanced 28-35 kilometers into Kursk, capturing 93 settlements. Military analyst Ivan Stupak suggests that Ukraine may be targeting Russian military warehouses in the region and could gain control of an additional 600-700 square kilometers. Stupak highlights the potential for capturing Russian soldiers and exploiting weakened positions in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Journalist Burns Draft Dodger Files in Kursk
🎦 29:47-31:09⏩
Jonathan shares an anecdote about Ukrainian war journalist Yuri Butusov, who entered a Russian military recruitment office in Kursk and burned files of individuals who refused to join the Russian army. He notes the debate about whether these files were digitized and suggests that the act, while symbolic, may genuinely hinder Russian efforts to identify and punish draft dodgers.
Return to top⤴️
Increased Fires Along Belgorod Border, Potential for Ukrainian Offensive?
🎦 31:09-33:54⏩
Jonathan points out a significant increase in fires along the Belgorod border region, suggesting Ukrainian activity. He speculates on whether Ukraine is preparing for a larger offensive into Belgorod, while acknowledging their limited capacity for a sustained, multi-front offensive. He considers that Ukraine might be degrading Russian capabilities or conducting shaping operations in preparation for future actions.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Requests International Aid for Civilian Infrastructure Recovery
🎦 33:54-34:54⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukraine's request for international assistance through NATO's emergency response mechanism. The request focuses on heavy equipment to support civilian responders dealing with the aftermath of Russian strikes on infrastructure. He lists the specific equipment requested, including excavators, tractors, armored vehicles, and fire engines, highlighting the ongoing need for such support.
Return to top⤴️
Zelensky Acknowledges Balancing Mobilization with Economic Stability
🎦 34:54-36:39⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's comments on the need to balance mobilization for the war effort with the impact on Ukraine's economy. He argues that while increased mobilization might be necessary, it could lead to labor shortages, economic decline, and increased draft evasion. Jonathan highlights the dilemma Zelensky faces in balancing the demands of war with the need for a functioning economy.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Parliament Bans Russian Orthodox Church
🎦 36:39-38:47⏩
Jonathan announces the Ukrainian parliament's vote to ban the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) within Ukraine. He points out the church's ties to the FSB and its role in supporting the Kremlin's agenda. Jonathan contrasts this decision with Russia's destruction of churches and religious institutions within Ukraine, particularly targeting the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Ratifies Rome Statute, Implications for International Criminal Court
🎦 38:47-39:33⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian parliament has voted overwhelmingly to ratify the Rome Statute, the treaty that underpins the International Criminal Court (ICC). He explains that this obliges Ukraine to cooperate with the ICC, including arresting individuals indicted by the court, potentially impacting the movement of Russian officials accused of war crimes.
Return to top⤴️
Putin Visits Chechnya, Kadyrov Offers "Tens of Thousands" of Troops
🎦 39:33-40:24⏩
Jonathan discusses Putin's visit to Chechnya, where Ramzan Kadyrov announced the readiness of "tens of thousands" of Chechen fighters to deploy to Ukraine. Jonathan sees this as a response to the situation in Kursk and a potential concern for Ukraine, as Chechen forces could bolster Russian defenses. However, he also notes that deploying these troops might make Kadyrov vulnerable to internal unrest in Chechnya.
Return to top⤴️
Speculation About Putin's Public Appearances and Potential Body Doubles
🎦 40:24-43:37⏩
Jonathan addresses viewer comments and speculation about Putin's recent public appearances, contrasting his seemingly relaxed demeanor in some instances with his previous avoidance of close contact. He shares theories about the possibility of Putin using body doubles, noting differences in appearance and behavior.
Return to top⤴️
Shoutout to Benny Pie and Shared Experiences of Pro-Ukrainian Sentiment
🎦 43:37-45:08⏩
Jonathan expresses his gratitude to Benny Pie, a supporter who has contributed to the development of the "ATP Distilled" AI website. He shares Benny Pie's experiences of encountering pro-Ukrainian sentiment while traveling, highlighting the widespread support for Ukraine that extends beyond the online information space.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 45:08-45:09⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and signs off.
Return to top⤴️
