Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
The idea that what's Britain done for Ukraine, nothing, is demonstrably false.
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of his Ukraine War Update for 1st February 2024, noting that the first part was rather long and that he will keep this one more concise.
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Ukraine's Need for Artillery Systems & Ammunition
🎦 00:15-03:20⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov’s emphasis on the need for artillery systems in addition to ammunition. Jonathan highlights that even older artillery pieces are valuable as they remain effective. He analyses the reported disparity in artillery firepower between Ukrainian and Russian forces, pondering the accuracy of claims that Ukraine has a critical shortage of shells given their consistent supply. He mentions a Ukrainian company, Ukrainian Armor, is producing a significant number of mortar shells and mortars each month.
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Victoria Nuland's Cryptic Comments & Potential Aid
🎦 03:20-05:12⏩
Jonathan discusses US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland’s comments about Putin facing “nice surprises” on the battlefield, speculating on what these surprises might be - potentially GLSDBs, ATACOMs or F-16s.
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German Military Aid to Ukraine
🎦 05:12-06:15⏩
Jonathan reviews recent deliveries of German military aid to Ukraine, including APCs, mine-clearing vehicles, a bridge-laying tank, mine plows, border protection vehicles, a naval mine clearance and surveillance system, ammunition, snow chains, and rations. He also notes pledges of Sea King helicopters and additional mine plows.
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Turkey-Ukraine Reconstruction Efforts
🎦 06:15-09:15⏩
Jonathan discusses the establishment of a joint working group between Ukraine and Turkey for reconstruction efforts, focusing on road infrastructure, water transport, critical infrastructure protection, housing, and aviation. He speculates about the potential for the US to reinstate Turkey into the F-35 program in exchange for Turkey supplying Ukraine with S-400 air defense systems, highlighting the diplomatic maneuvering involved in supplying aid to Ukraine. He references his interview with Colby Badwa, who explained the role of the US military in determining the value of military equipment.
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Drone Warfare Developments
🎦 09:15-12:15⏩
Jonathan highlights Trent Tolenko’s observation about the potential for drone-delivered thermite to become a significant factor in the war, exceeding the impact of unguided munitions used in World War II. He cites a tweet from PS01 detailing the cost and effectiveness of these improvised thermite weapons. Jonathan marvels at the escalating role of drone warfare, citing the recent destruction of a Russian warehouse by Ukrainian Badayagas drones. He also discusses the secretive delivery of Swiss-made Destinus drones to Ukraine, facilitated by a Swiss startup founder who renounced his Russian citizenship and will establish a group in France.
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French and Japanese Aid
🎦 12:15-12:34⏩
Jonathan mentions France winning a tender to supply Ukraine with self-propelled pontoon bridges and Japan's contribution of $390 million to Ukraine's state budget through World Bank projects focused on social protection and agricultural recovery.
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Addressing Viewer Criticism of UK Support for Ukraine
🎦 12:34-24:17⏩
Jonathan addresses a viewer's comment criticising the UK’s support for Ukraine, particularly in comparison to other nations, and suggesting that the UK has done “nothing.” He refutes this claim, citing the UK’s early provision of military aid, including being the first to provide modern main battle tanks (Challenger 2), NLAW anti-tank missiles, Javelin anti-tank missiles, M270 multiple launch rocket systems, Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and training for Ukrainian troops. He acknowledges the UK's historical involvement in money laundering for Russia, but emphasizes this has reduced since the war began. He also discusses former Prime Minister Boris Johnson's support for Ukraine, citing a passage from an interview with author Simon Shuster, who wrote a book about Zelensky. Shuster reveals that Zelensky held Johnson in high regard, considering him a loyal and reliable ally during the initial days of the invasion. Jonathan examines the Kiel Institute for the World Economy's Ukraine Support Tracker, which shows the US as the largest provider of military aid in raw numbers. However, he argues this is misleading as it does not consider GDP or refugee costs. When these factors are considered, the US contribution appears less significant, particularly compared to countries like Lithuania, Estonia, Norway, Denmark, Latvia, Slovakia, Poland, Netherlands, Finland, Czech Republic, Sweden, and Bulgaria. Jonathan emphasizes that his aim is not to criticize any country unfairly, but to encourage all nations to do more to support Ukraine. He reiterates that the US has played a crucial role in supporting Ukraine, but expresses concern about the current impasse in Congress, which has hindered the flow of aid in recent months.
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China's Continued Support for Russia
🎦 24:17-25:17⏩
Jonathan discusses China’s continued support for Russia, highlighting the statement from the new Chinese Defence Minister, Dong Jun, who, after talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu, confirmed that China would not abandon its established policies despite pressure from the US and Europe. This signifies continued military cooperation between the two nations.
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Update on the Deportation of Russian Dissidents from Thailand
🎦 25:17-26:11⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the situation regarding the Russian dissidents stranded in Thailand, reporting that an agreement has been reached for their deportation to Israel rather than back to Russia. He welcomes this development, seeing it as a positive outcome for the individuals involved.
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Suspected Russian Spies in the European Parliament
🎦 26:11-28:19⏩
Jonathan discusses allegations about Russian spies operating within the European Parliament. He cites a Politico article revealing concerns from Latvian lawmakers about a Latvian MEP suspected of working for Russia. This MEP, along with two Irish MEPs, voted against a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They also participated in trips to Lithuania alongside the suspected spy. While the Irish MEPs are considered more likely to be “useful idiots” than active agents, the Latvian MEP’s expulsion from the Green’s EFA group raises further suspicions.
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US Presidential Election: Quinnipiac Poll and Potential Implications for Ukraine
🎦 28:19-32:23⏩
Jonathan delves into US politics, analyzing a recent Quinnipiac poll on the upcoming presidential election. While expressing concern about the implications of a potential Trump presidency for Ukraine, he finds encouragement in the poll results, which show Biden currently ahead of Trump (50% to 44%). He argues that Trump’s appeal is limited to a specific segment of the electorate and that Biden is well-positioned for re-election, particularly as Trump grapples with financial and legal challenges. He finds the emergence of Nikki Haley as a potential contender particularly interesting. Haley, who takes a pro-Ukraine stance, currently polls ahead of Biden. Jonathan speculates that if Haley continues to gain momentum, she could potentially force Trump to adopt more extreme positions, potentially alienating moderate Republicans. This could lead to increased support for Haley, potentially even from outlets like Fox News, which have traditionally been aligned with Trump. Jonathan concludes that a Biden-Haley matchup, while not ideal for Biden, would be preferable to a Biden-Trump rematch, particularly regarding continued support for Ukraine. He emphasizes his opposition to Republican politicians who do not support Ukraine, encouraging viewers to support candidates like Haley who are committed to aiding Ukraine.
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Wrap Up
🎦 32:23-32:43⏩
Jonathan concludes by reiterating his message of support for Ukraine, urging viewers to back candidates who share this commitment. He thanks them for watching and signs off.
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