Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Is this a sign of success? Is this a sign of a competent military that is achieving its objectives and all things are going well?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the channel for the 18th June 2024 Ukraine War Update, the first part of a multi-part video. He starts by covering the daily Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 00:17-02:40⏩
Jonathan mentions that viewer Andrew had highlighted that the low number of Russian tanks reported destroyed recently (2 on one day, 0 on another) may be due to the weather, especially high winds, as this will impact the use of drones which Ukraine rely heavily on. Jonathan acknowledges he often overlooks the weather as a variable especially in summer. Jonathan notes that the high number of Russian personnel losses during this period suggests there was still a high level of military activity.
- 1,230 Russian personnel were lost
- 16 Tanks destroyed - well above average
- 20 armoured personnel vehicles destroyed - just above average
- 32 Artillery systems destroyed - double the daily average
- 40 vehicles and fuel tanks - fairly high but there have been some high numbers reported destroyed recently
- 7 pieces of special equipment
Jonathan mentions that there is no destroyed equipment list from Andrew Perpetua yet and he will share once he has it.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Casualties
🎦 02:40-05:23⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian casualty figures in more detail with input from the Reporting from Ukraine telegram channel, citing a number of specific examples. He highlights the high attrition rates being experienced by Russian forces, noting:
- One Russian soldier near Ovchansk claimed his company of 100 men had been reduced to 12 after an assault on the city, an 88% attrition rate.
- A Russian POW captured near Vovchansk said that only 6 of his unit of 50 survived their first attack with the rest surrendering to avoid being sent back to the front - an attrition rate of 100%
- Another video showed a Russian soldier saying that only 9 of his 300 strong unit had survived, a 97% attrition rate.
- These accounts tally with figures provided by the Ukrainian Chief of Staff who reported that up to 1,740 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded in a single day in the Kharkiv direction
Jonathan concludes that this suggests Russian forces are finding the Kharkiv offensive challenging. He plans to return to the Kharkiv sector later in the video.
Return to top⤴️
Impact of Drones
🎦 05:23-07:04⏩
Jonathan plays a video from a Russian soldier showing a Chinese Desert Cross 1003 buggy that was hit by a Ukrainian FPV drone killing 3 senior officers. The soldier notes that large vehicles such as Kamaz trucks are no longer used to transport ammunition and supplies to the front as they are too easily targeted by drones - they are either out of trucks or they are no longer fit for purpose. The soldier notes that even UAZ vehicles are burning "like matches" and that buggies are now used.
Return to top⤴️
Crimean Air Defence Systems Destroyed
🎦 07:04-11:33⏩
Jonathan discusses the destruction of Russian air defence systems in occupied Crimea. He is astounded by reports that Ukraine has destroyed 15 S-300, S-350 & S-400 systems in the past 2 months alone and believes this has left Crimea extremely vulnerable. He cites reports that Russia is moving air defence battalion families and museum artefacts out of Crimea, and reasons that Russia must be concerned about their ability to retain control of the peninsular. Jonathan believes that, once Ukraine receives F-16s, the lack of air defences will allow them to launch air strikes on the peninsula. Jonathan then discusses the downing of a Russian A-50U AWACS aircraft, thought to be worth in excess of $300m, over the Sea of Azov in mid-January that Russia has blamed on Ukrainian forces. There was speculation at the time that the aircraft had been mistakenly shot down by Russian air defences and video footage showed what appeared to be Russian air defence systems firing on an aircraft. A Moscow court has now arrested in absentia Ukrainian Colonel Mykola Zyaman, commander of the 138th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, on charges of terrorism in connection with the incident. Jonathan is bemused by the arrest and highlights a comment from viewer John Ridge who points out that footage of the incident "fairly conclusively" shows Russian forces firing on the aircraft. Jonathan questions the logic of Russia taking a Ukrainian officer to court for destroying Russian military equipment, especially given there is a war on.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Orlan-10 Drone Shot Down
🎦 11:33-12:14⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian MiG-29 shooting down a Russian Orlan-10 drone, highlighting the asymmetry of cost as the missile used to down the drone would have cost more than the drone itself. However, Jonathan points out that this ignores the opportunity cost, asking what might the drone have spotted and what damage might it have caused, for example identifying targets for Iskander missiles or artillery. He concludes that it is essential these drones are destroyed.
Return to top⤴️
Russia on Fire
🎦 12:14-12:57⏩
Jonathan reports on two fires in Russia:
- A trolleybus workshop was destroyed by fire in Chelyabinsk, over 100km from the border with Kazakhstan. There were no casualties.
- A large fire destroyed a grain warehouse covering 2,600 square metres in the village of Piketnoy, Omsk.
Jonathan suspects these fires may be a result of sabotage but acknowledges this is just his opinion. He believes there is an ongoing issue with arson in Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Air Defence Success
🎦 12:57-13:27⏩
Ukrainian air defences shot down all 10 Shahed drones used by Russia overnight. Jonathan questions why Russia is not using more drones, hypothesising that either they do not have them or they are stockpiling them for a larger attack.
Return to top⤴️
Drone Attacks on Russian Infrastructure
🎦 13:27-15:33⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure:
- Unidentified drones attacked an oil depot in the city of Azov in Rostov region, causing a huge fire.
- Other attacks on oil infrastructure in Krasnodar are reported by the Crimea in Wind Telegram channel with the Temryuk oil depot and Chushka transhipment infrastructure believed to have been targeted.
- Military analyst Tim White reported that Neptune missiles were used to attack an oil depot 70km from the Kerch bridge, potentially the same attack as above.
Jonathan believes these strikes on Russia's hydrocarbon industry will have significant consequences.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Kharkiv
🎦 15:33-22:25⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation in Kharkiv Oblast where Ukrainian forces are reported to be gradually pushing back Russian forces.
- Zelensky announced on the 17th June 2024 that Ukrainian forces were gradually pushing Russian troops out of Kharkiv Oblast following a Russian offensive that was launched on May 10th. Russian forces are reported to have advanced up to 10km before being halted at the first line of defence.
- Zelensky thanked the Ukrainian soldiers who are "clearly fulfilling their tasks" and "replenishing our prisoner exchange fund with Russian soldiers".
- Jonathan highlights that, according to the Reporting from Ukraine Telegram channel, one group of Russian soldiers had surrendered after only 6 of their 50 man unit survived the first attack.
- The Ukrainian military claim that Russia has suffered 4,000 casualties (killed or wounded) during the offensive.
- Russia controls a handful of villages on two axes in Kharkiv Oblast: near to the village of Lipsy and the embattled town of Chansk.
- The ISW reports that Russia is redeploying forces from Donetsk to Kharkiv Oblasts in an ironic turn of events given that one of the aims of the offensive was to force Ukraine to redeploy forces away from Donbas.
- Jonathan speculates that, as a result of Russian redeployments, Ukraine may be able to launch an attack in Donetsk. He questions whether Russia's Kharkiv offensive is a form of military harakiri.
- The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, once a crack Russian Marines unit that has been decimated on a number of occasions fighting in Vuhledar (and reconstituted several times), has been redeployed to the Lipsy direction, north of Kharkiv. This unit was reportedly involved in a failed attempt to push south towards Kharkiv city to within artillery range but were pushed back.
- Russian forces have been deploying reinforcements to the Vovchansk direction since 12-13 June, indicating the offensive is not going well.
- There are conflicting reports about the village of Klyobike, north of Lipsy. Russian forces had reportedly been trying to advance south from the village towards Kharkiv but are now being pushed back by elements of the 13th and 92nd Brigades.
- Russian propagandists are now claiming that the objectives of the offensive were limited to the capture of the towns of Chansk and Lipsy, downplaying the significance of the offensive. Jonathan believes this is "absolute nonsense" given previous claims that Russia planned to advance further south.
- The propagandists also made the ridiculous claim that Russia had achieved the minimum objective of pinning Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv direction, sarcastically pointing out that they had pinned down their own reserves.
- Jonathan dismisses claims that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are building up forces for a major counter attack in Kharkiv and Kharkiv city as copium.
Potential Russian Attack Near Borova
🎦 22:25-25:09⏩
Jonathan, using a map produced by JR, discusses a potential Russian attack near Borova.
- Jonathan refers to an area near the settlements of Novoharivka, Sakhivka and Nadia where Russia made rapid gains 6 months previously before being gradually pushed back by Ukraine.
- A subsequent Russian attack to the south west near Stelmakhivka also failed to make progress towards Borova on the Oskil River.
- The Deep State Telegram channel reports that Russia has amassed 10,000 troops and 450 pieces of heavy equipment, including 200 artillery systems, near Borova and is preparing to launch an attack from the settlements of Raihorodok and Nova Vodanya. The 3rd Brigade is defending in this sector.
- Jonathan is sceptical about the likelihood of success for Russia given the previous failures of much larger Russian forces to make progress in the area.
Nepotism in the Russian MoD
🎦 25:09-26:35⏩
Jonathan discusses the appointment of Anna Tsivileva, Putin's niece, as Russian Deputy Defence Minister, speculating on Putin's motivations for the appointment:
- It could be a way of Putin exerting greater control over the Ministry of Defence.
- A way of helping out a family member.
- To ensure a legacy, in the same way as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov who appoints family members to positions of power.
- A sign that Putin is concerned about his health and mortality.
- Jonathan reports that the Daily Telegraph are reporting that 4 deputy defence ministers have been sacked and a relative appointed and is being seen as a purge of officials in charge of the invasion of Ukraine.
- Jonathan questions whether such upheaval is a sign of success for Russia.
Zelensky's Popularity Remains High
🎦 26:35-27:38⏩
Polling from KMIS shows that 70% of Ukrainians want Zelensky to remain president until the end of the war, with 22% opposed and 8% undecided. Jonathan is encouraged by this show of support for Zelensky and agrees that it is important to "not change horses in the middle of crossing a river". He also encourages viewers to watch his video on whether Ukraine should hold democratic elections during the war.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Submarine in Cuba
🎦 27:38-28:51⏩
A number of Russian naval vessels, including a submarine, recently arrived in Cuba. Jonathan shows footage of the submarine, which appears to be in very poor condition and is missing some of its anechoic coating. Jonathan jokes that this might be a good opportunity for the crew to defect to the United States, given that they are only 100 miles from Key West.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 28:51-29:07⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He also thanks those who watched his livestream with Greg the previous evening.
Return to top⤴️
