Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Ukraine's capabilities and capacities will increase as the war goes on and I think ... Russia is operating at industrially ... you know, the best it's going to."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-03:19⏩
Jonathan opens by predicting a turning point in the war, with Ukraine's increasing drone production capabilities enabling them to strike more effectively within Russia. He foresees Ukraine's industrial capacity strengthening over time, while Russia's remains largely static. However, he expresses concern over potential political shifts in Europe, particularly the rise of right-wing populism, and their potential impact on support for Ukraine.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report on Russian Losses
🎦 03:19-04:25⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses from the previous day: 910 personnel, 8 tanks, 27 armoured vehicles, 23 artillery systems, 2 anti-aircraft systems, 44 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 5 pieces of special equipment. He highlights the significance of the high number of vehicle and fuel tank losses, suggesting a successful period for Ukrainian forces.
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Oryx/Andrew Perpetua's Visual Confirmation of Losses
🎦 04:25-07:01⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss data, compiled from open sources. He notes a favourable ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses, with significant Russian losses including communications equipment, a Palantin electronic warfare system, a 240mm self-propelled mortar, tanks, and a variety of infantry fighting vehicles and support vehicles. On the Ukrainian side, losses include communications equipment, boats, self-propelled guns, tanks, a YPR-765 armoured personnel carrier, a damaged Bradley, and civilian vehicles, along with a possible NASAMS radar decoy.
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Expansion of Russian Military Cemeteries
🎦 07:01-08:00⏩
Jonathan cites a video by Suchimimus analysing satellite imagery of Russian military cemeteries. The analysis reveals a significant expansion of these cemeteries, providing further evidence of substantial Russian casualties. He acknowledges the sensitivity of this topic and emphasizes the importance of relying on credible sources.
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Russian Military Blogger 13th's Faked Death
🎦 08:00-09:17⏩
Jonathan addresses the rumour, circulating the previous day, of the death of Russian military blogger "13th". He clarifies that the blogger, despite initially publishing images of his own "dead body" online, subsequently released a video confirming he is alive, claiming it was a ruse to expose Ukrainian agents. Jonathan expresses scepticism about this explanation, labelling the blogger's actions as bizarre and irresponsible.
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Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command and Control Ship
🎦 09:17-11:39⏩
Jonathan revisits the Ukrainian strike on a Russian ship in the Dnipro estuary, initially reported in a previous video. He provides further context, explaining the ship became stranded following the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam and was subsequently repurposed by the Russians, potentially as a command and control centre or observation post. He presents evidence from satellite imagery showing boat activity around the ship, along with Ukrainian intelligence reports confirming its use as a base for electronic warfare systems and drone operations. Jonathan concludes the strike was likely a high-value target for Ukraine, justifying the use of significant munitions.
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Destruction of Russian Palantin Electronic Warfare System
🎦 11:39-12:15⏩
Jonathan highlights the destruction of a Russian Palantin electronic warfare system, confirming its visual identification from open-source footage. He emphasises this is a high-value loss for Russia, as the Palantin is a relatively new and sophisticated piece of equipment. The footage suggests the system was destroyed by Ukrainian forces using a combination of artillery and, potentially, GMLRS strikes.
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Rumoured Downing of Russian Su-27 in Belgorod
🎦 12:15-13:11⏩
Jonathan reports on unconfirmed rumours of a Russian Su-27 fighter jet being shot down in the Belgorod region of Russia. While acknowledging the report is currently unverified, he notes it coincides with local reports of explosions in the area and speculation about Ukrainian long-range strikes. Jonathan posits that if true, this incident could indicate either a friendly fire incident or a successful Ukrainian incursion into Russian airspace, reminiscent of the downing of five Russian aircraft in Bryansk the previous year.
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Footage of Downed Ukrainian MiG-29
🎦 13:11-14:46⏩
Jonathan discusses the emergence of footage showing the wreckage of a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet, reportedly shot down on March 8th. The pilot, Major Andriy Kashenko, is presumed killed. Analysis suggests the MiG-29 was likely downed by an R-37N missile launched from a Russian Su-35, highlighting Russia's advantage in air-to-air combat capabilities. Jonathan reiterates Ukraine's urgent need for modern fighter jets, such as F-16s with advanced radar and missile systems, to counter Russia's aerial superiority.
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Update on Damage to Russian A-50U Radar Planes in Taganrog
🎦 14:46-16:27⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukrainian strike on Taganrog, specifically targeting a facility repairing A-50U radar planes. Citing a report from the Financial Times, based on information from Ukrainian officials, Jonathan reveals that two A-50Us were critically damaged in the attack. If accurate, this would leave Russia with only one operational A-50U, severely impacting their airborne early warning and control capabilities. Jonathan emphasises the significance of this development, noting that a minimum of three, and ideally four, A-50Us are needed to maintain continuous coverage. However, he cautions that these claims, while potentially significant, require further verification.
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Confirmation of Ukrainian Patriot System Loss
🎦 16:27-19:48⏩
Jonathan discusses the confirmed destruction of at least one Ukrainian Patriot PAC-2 launcher. He references War Vehicle Tracker's confirmation, which includes evidence from social media posts mourning the loss of a crew member and images showing the wreckage of the M903 launcher and a MAN KAT1 logistics vehicle. Jonathan acknowledges initial uncertainty regarding the type of system hit in the attack, but confirms that the presence of a German chassis points conclusively to it being a Patriot, not an S-300 as originally speculated. He laments this loss, acknowledging its high value and the impact it will have on Ukraine's air defence capabilities.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Strikes
🎦 19:50-27:19⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to recent overnight strikes, both by and against Russia. He reports that Russia launched 22 Shahed drones into Ukraine, 17 of which were shot down. He also notes a Russian airstrike on Kupiansk, using a guided glide bomb, though the target and extent of the damage remain unclear. In a significant development, Jonathan details a series of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on targets deep within Russia. These include confirmed hits on an oil depot in Orel, the Stovo oil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region, and the Lukos oil refinery. Additionally, there are reports of a power plant fire in St. Petersburg. Jonathan emphasizes the increasing reach and effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes, which are now causing significant damage to Russia's critical infrastructure, particularly their hydrocarbon industry. He contrasts this with earlier drone attacks, which were more symbolic than strategically damaging, suggesting Ukraine is now moving beyond simply sending a message to inflicting tangible harm on Russia's war effort. He predicts this trend will continue as Ukraine's drone production ramps up, allowing them to saturate Russian defences with larger numbers of drones.
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Ukrainian Abrams Tanks Proving Effective
🎦 27:19-29:15⏩
Jonathan cites a Forbes article by David Axe, reporting on the effective deployment of Ukrainian Abrams tanks in the defence of Avdiivka. Despite the loss of four Abrams tanks in the area, the article highlights their success in halting the Russian advance and inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, including tanks, fighting vehicles, and infantry. Jonathan emphasises the strategic significance of holding back the Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies in this area.
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Pro-Ukrainian Groups Launch Incursions into Russia
🎦 29:15-32:35⏩
Jonathan reports on a significant development: Pro-Ukrainian armed groups, namely the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps, and the Siberia battalion, have launched coordinated attacks into Russia's Kursk and Belgorod regions. He presents video footage, which he believes to be credible, showing tanks operating and engaging in combat within Russian territory. Messages from these groups, advocating for armed resistance against Putin's regime, are also presented. Jonathan expresses surprise at the apparent ease with which these groups crossed the border, despite Russia's efforts to fortify the area. He notes the specific targeting of Shebekino, a town previously attacked by these groups, suggesting a deliberate strategy. While Russian authorities claim to have repelled these incursions and inflicted heavy losses, Jonathan points out that no evidence has been provided to support these claims.
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Russian Student Arrested for Wi-Fi Network Name
🎦 32:35-33:45⏩
Jonathan expresses outrage over the arrest of a Russian student for naming his Wi-Fi network "Slava Ukraini" (Glory to Ukraine). He criticises the Russian government's hypocrisy in promoting a narrative of freedom and liberation while simultaneously cracking down on even the slightest dissent. He cites Amnesty International's report highlighting the thousands of Russians imprisoned or fined for criticising the invasion of Ukraine or expressing support for Ukraine.
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Disney Cuts Ukrainian Oscar Speech from International Broadcast
🎦 33:45-34:50⏩
Jonathan criticises Disney for cutting the acceptance speech for "20 Days in Mariupol", a documentary about the siege of Mariupol, from the international broadcast of the Oscars. He expresses disappointment that Disney, unlike in the previous year when a documentary about Alexei Navalny won the same award, chose to censor this important message from Ukraine. He views this as a missed opportunity to platform Ukrainian voices and a potential double standard.
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Ukraine in Talks to Resume Air Travel
🎦 34:50-35:48⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has initiated talks with US and EU safety regulators to discuss the possibility of resuming air travel to and from the country. He mentions that Ukrainian officials are consulting with Israel to learn from their experience in managing aviation security in a high-risk environment. While acknowledging the challenges, Jonathan sees this as a positive step towards rebuilding Ukraine's economy. He speculates that flights may initially operate from Lviv or another safer location in western Ukraine before Boryspil Airport near Kyiv can be deemed secure enough.
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Wrap Up
🎦 35:48-36:04⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He acknowledges the longer format of the video, attributing it to the significant volume of news and events unfolding. He signs off, promising to provide further updates soon.
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