Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230820a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Given a range of more than 650 kilometres from the border with Ukraine for this strike, we are seeing a new generation of precise AFU drone munitions arriving."
Hello Team!
Jonathan apologizes for the delay in posting this video due to his holiday and MS fatigue. He will post two videos today but the second one will be delayed due to the Women's World Cup final which England is playing in.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 460 Russian personnel killed, 6 tanks, 11 APVs lost
- 33 artillery systems and 3 MLRS lost, which is very high. Even if 50% inaccurate, still problematic for Russia
- 3 anti-aircraft systems lost, higher than average
- 22 drones, 15 vehicles/fuel tanks, 5 special equipment lost
- Shifting losses in favor of Ukraine according to Andrew Perpetua's data, a mapper tracking equipment losses
Russian POWs
Footage shows 5 Russian POWs captured who complain about bad treatment from their own command and lack of logistics/water. Ties into the losses of vehicles/fuel tanks and suggests Russia is struggling logistically.
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Boats Destroyed
Ukraine claims to have destroyed 10 Russian boats carrying 40 servicemen and equipment attempting to infiltrate strategic areas in one day on Aug 18th. If true, a significant loss.
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Sumy Shelling
Russia heavily shelled Sumy in northern Ukraine with 248 blasts in one day on Aug 19, damaging homes. Suggests Russia still has artillery capability in that area that could potentially be moved to the front lines.
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Russia on Fire
Warehouses belonging to e-commerce retailer Ozone caught fire in Podolsk near Moscow. Firefighters had issues with water supply so helicopters were called in to help fight the blaze.
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Airbase Strike
- A Russian airbase was hit by a drone/drones. Russia admitted 1 aircraft damaged, but analysts suggest likely more damaged/destroyed based on past incidents.
- Trent Telenko analyzed the color of the smoke and believes it indicates stores of unfueled KH-22 anti-ship cruise missiles were hit rather than aircraft or fuel.
- Suggests a new generation of long-range precise Ukrainian drone munitions.
Drone Attacks in Russia
- 3 drones allegedly attacked a military unit in Rostov. Russia claims all were downed by EW. 2 fell on the military unit, the 3rd 1km away. Unclear if the 2 falling on the unit indicates a successful attack.
- Minor fire on the roof of Kursk railway station from a small drone, injuring 5 from falling glass. Possibly a psyop to demonstrate the war to the Russian populace. Significance unclear.
Strikes in Ukraine
- Precise Ukrainian JDAM strike on a Russian-occupied building in Donetsk City. JDAMs being utilized more with good explosive yield and range.
- Deadly Russian missile strike on central Chernihiv. Claims 7 dead including a 6-year-old and 144 wounded, 15 of them children.
- Allegedly targeted a publicly announced drone conference at the drama theater with military personnel present.
- Kenneth Gregg and others criticize the decision to hold such an event so close to the Russian border. If a genuine military target, civilian casualties may be defensible under international law. More info needed.
Trenches and Troop Requirements
Satellite imagery shows the scale of Russian 2nd line of defense trenches near Verbove that Ukraine is engaging. Estimates are a company of infantry, tanks, APCs, artillery, HQ etc needed per 800-1000m of trench. This area alone has 20-30km of trenches. Extrapolated across the entire front, the troop numbers needed to properly man multiple lines of trenches are staggering and exceed Russian capabilities. A silver lining for Ukraine despite the scale of defenses.
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Twitter Deleting Pre-2014 Media
Twitter has removed all media posted before 2014. Some allege this deliberately erases evidence of Euromaidan, the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine, and war crimes in Syria under Assad. Concerns about billionaires erasing the historical record. Impact on open-source intelligence gathering. Motives and reasoning unclear.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan is going to watch the Women's World Cup final with England playing, so the next video will be slightly delayed. He thanks viewers for their support.
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