Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update, Kharkiv Offensive Update

"I still can't see it as being a super sensible use of their forces, but I may well be wrong."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:39⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to a late night frontline update, apologising for the late hour. It's been a busy day and he has a lot to get through. Viewers are reminded that a key to the map is available at the beginning of the video if required.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Russian Gains in Northern Kharkiv Oblast

🎦 00:39-02:29⏩

All three maps (DeepState, Syriac, MilitaryLand.net) show Russian gains north of Kharkiv in the Kharkiv Oblast. Jonathan highlights the gains are so significant that UK Foreign Minister David Cameron has described the situation as "extremely dangerous" urging allies to provide more aid. Syriac Maps claims some named settlements have been captured.

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No Reports and Commander in Chief Zaluzhnyi Updates

🎦 02:29-04:13⏩

No Reports on Telegram reported similar gains that morning but with some uncertainty. Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, says the situation in the region has worsened and that fighting continues in the border areas along the state border with the Russian Federation. Battles continue in the Kupyansk-Svatove, Lyman-Kupyansk and Avdiivka areas. Zaluzhnyi admits there has been partial success for Russian forces in some areas but in other areas the Ukrainians have been able to push the enemy out and improve their tactical position.

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Further Claims From Zaluzhnyi

🎦 04:13-05:51⏩

Jonathan reviews a statement from Zaluzhnyi which doesn't reveal a lot of detail other than that things are heating up. Zaluzhnyi states that the Ukrainian forces are aware of Russian plans and responding flexibly to reinforce defences.

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Tend Reports on Russian Advances and Civilian Evacuations

🎦 05:51-06:54⏩

Jonathan reports that Tend (on Telegram) claims that Russian forces have moved into some undefended and empty villages on the border with Russia. They believe the takeover of these small villages will have come at a cost however, with losses of at least a dozen vehicles by FPV drones and artillery. Tend considers that a more serious engagement may happen in Vovchansk and that civilian evacuations have been ordered by Ukrainian authorities as the city is under heavy artillery fire. Jonathan adds that evacuations have been ongoing for some time in Kharkiv.

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Zelenskyy: Russian Strategy and Ukrainian Resilience

🎦 06:54-08:27⏩

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, has said that some villages have turned from grey zones to zones of active hostilities as Russian occupiers attempt to gain a foothold. He states that the purpose of the attacks in Kharkiv is to stretch Ukrainian forces and undermine morale but that the Avdiivka area is most rigid.

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Update From Ukrainian Police

🎦 08:27-09:23⏩

Jonathan reports that a Ukrainian policeman reporting from the Avdiivka area reports that the city is being destroyed but that evacuations are ongoing.

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Territorial Defence Forces Report Heavy Russian Losses

🎦 09:23-10:06⏩

The 125th Territorial Defence Force reports that the settlements in the Kharkiv region occupied by Russian forces were previously permanent grey zones and that the Russians took huge losses taking control. Jonathan states that he cannot verify this but that he has seen footage of dead Russian soldiers but it's not clear whether this qualifies as "huge losses".

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Vovchansk City Administration Denies Russian Presence; RDK Claims Defence

🎦 10:06-11:17⏩

The Vovchansk City Administration has denied Russian forces have entered the city. Meanwhile The Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) claim to have been actively defending Vovchansk "all day", destroying enemy infantry. Jonathan notes that many civilians have been evacuated.

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Ukrainian General Staff Describe Situation as "Complex and Dynamic"

🎦 11:17-12:47⏩

Jonathan reports that the situation is "complex and challenging", reporting that the Ukrainian General Staff have said that the situation north of Kharkiv, where Shoigu's last action as defence minister was to order the invasion, is "complex and dynamically changing". Fighting is ongoing along the directions of the villages previously mentioned. They report 22 assaults in the area that day, 14 of which were ongoing. They confirm fighting is ongoing for the border town of Vovchansk, stating that the enemy is using significant forces of up to 5 battalions and is not counting its losses. Over 100 Russian soldiers are reported to have been killed in the area that day. The Ukrainian General Staff say that tactical successes for the Russians have been achieved but that measures are in place to destroy the enemy, that defenders are inflicting fire damage, using unmanned systems widely, and that reserves are being deployed to stabilise the situation, with priority given to preserving the lives of Ukrainian soldiers.

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Jonathan's Analysis of the Situation in Kharkiv

🎦 12:47-13:47⏩

Jonathan reflects on what he has learned, noting that the situation is dynamic but that two significant stretches of the Kharkiv border are under Russian control. It remains to be seen how far the Russians will be able to advance, what their objectives are, and what equipment they are able to commit. He notes that the Ukrainians are using drones, artillery and HIMARS in the area. He questions why HIMARS, which have been touted as a replacement for artillery have rarely been used for frontline activities, and speculates that they may see more active use in this area, and that cluster munitions would also be effective.

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Kreminna Front Line Update

🎦 13:47-14:57⏩

Jonathan reports, with relief, that there are no changes to the Kreminna front line, noting that there were extensive fires in Serebryansky Forest, likely caused by weapons. There is no change on the Sversk front line or the northern Bakhmut area, although Syriac maps show some small Russian gains around the canal microdistrict, south of the road. This is an area Jonathan reported on the previous day. Andri Perpetual shows some Ukrainian gains south of Ivaniske, reflecting a Ukrainian counter attack that had been reported a few days previously by Reporting from Ukraine on Telegram.

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Bakhmut Front Line Update

🎦 14:57-17:25⏩

Syriac Maps shows some Russian gains south of the road, west of Ivaniske, although this is not shown on other maps. Jonathan wonders if this will be the case going forward. Moving south to Ocheretyn, Syriac Maps show that the Russian army continue to advance north of Ocheretyn, reaching Kalinova Ponds. In the last few hours, they have also taken a series of trenches south east of Novo-Aleksandrivka, moving westward along the railway line and north, filling in the area between Opytne and the north western area of their attack. This is challenging for the Ukrainians. Although Reporting From Ukraine reported that the Russians had been pushed back slightly in the southern area, this is not reflected on the maps. Further south, in the Nevelske area, Surat Maps and Andri Perpetual both show some Russian gains, just west of Pervomaiskie, where they continue to push. Andri Perpetual's map has caught up with the other maps, showing that the Ukrainians have withdrawn from the pocket north east of Nevelske. Jonathan describes Nevelske as a key fortification for the Ukrainians, which the Russians have been unable to take. He notes that Surat Maps previously showed that they had captured it for a short period but this has been taken back and that it will be interesting to see if the Ukrainians can hold the line or if the Russians will be able to push to the west.

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Donetsk Front Line Update

🎦 17:25-18:23⏩

In Krasnohorivka the Russians continue to fill in the gap between the two pincers, and are now only 700 metres apart. They have filled the whole area in following the Ukrainian withdrawal towards the centre of Krasnohorivka. Syriac Maps reports that the Russians have taken full control over the 2014 trench system on the eastern part of the town, as far as school number 1 in the microdistrict. They have also made advances north of the refractory plant, taking the city council and a large part of the private sector as far as Sumtska Street, which is now the new front line. They estimate that around 40% of the town is now under Russian control. Jonathan comments that they are making consistent gains in the area, which is very challenging for the Ukrainians. Syriac maps show slight Russian gains in Krasnoyarsk, west of Mariinka, inching forward towards Krukovo. Jonathan notes that it has been a day of a lot of Russian gains, including some in the south, on the dogleg north of Volodymyrivka, and east of Mykilske in the Vuhledar direction. He says that this will be challenging if the Russians are pushing in an extra place and that this might mean that the Ukrainians are having to relocate resources from other areas. He questions whether, given that this is a long way south, the Ukrainians are relocating from further south rather than closer to Kupiansk, which he would have expected.

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Zaporizhzhia Front Line Update

🎦 18:23-19:07⏩

Jonathan says that Ukraine is really under pressure in a number of places. Syriac Maps report Russian gains in Robotyne, having made advances along the H08 road, north of Robotyne in the last four days. Jonathan notes that if Syriac Maps are to be believed, there have been fairly significant gains for the Russians on the eastern front line, and particularly in Kharkiv.

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Jonathan's Analysis of Russian strategy and Ukrainian Preparedness

🎦 19:07-21:00⏩

Jonathan states that he is unsure whether these were larger attacks than the Ukrainians were expecting, or whether they were different in some other way but that they do seem to be causing more concern. There are reports that people in Kharkiv are not worried but Jonathan says that he would be a bit concerned given that the Russians are only 32km from the city. He speculates that their objective may be to get Kharkiv within artillery range, pointing out that to get the centre within range they would need to be around 20km away. He is still not convinced that this is a wise strategy for the Russians and is still trying to get his head around it. He initially thought it was a "crazy idea" but they have taken ground easily so far. However, they haven't encountered any fortifications yet, and it has been suggested that the main fortifications for Vovchansk are south of the city, as it's not a good idea to build too close to the front line where they are vulnerable to drones and artillery. It may be that the Ukrainians are willing to cede this buffer zone to the Russians as it is not particularly useful to them. It has been suggested that the area has not been mined sufficiently.

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Jonathan's Concluding Thoughts on Kharkiv

🎦 21:00-21:15⏩

Jonathan says that this is "enough for me", that his voice needs a rest, and that he is going to bed. He is still doubtful that this is a sensible use of resources for the Russians, as they will suffer heavy attrition in the long run, but admits that he "may be wrong".

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Wrap Up

🎦 21:15-21:15⏩

Jonathan says goodbye and signs off, telling viewers he'll speak to them soon.

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