Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Pol Depot Hits, River Losses
Table of Contents 📖
"The Trump administration concerning Ukraine is despicable. And there you go. Prove me wrong. Please do."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel and explains this is Part 1 of the update for 15th March 2025. There was breaking news earlier and a reminder that he posts multiple videos per day. Sadly, his son has hurt his leg playing football so he is off to hospital to check if it's broken (hopefully not!)
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Visual Confirmed Losses
🎦 00:19-02:29⏩
No visual confirmed losses from Andrew Perpetua yet as it was a quiet day but he received a huge Magyar's Birds video which he's still working on - this will push the losses to an average day. Jonathan will update once it's available.
- General Staff figures: 1,180 Russian personnel, 2 tanks, 15 troop-carrying fighting vehicles, 28 artillery systems, 1 multiple-launch rocket system, 102 vehicles and fuel tanks - a lower day than usual, suggesting a quieter day for Russian attacks. Jonathan speculates that attacking forces likely incur more losses.
Heavy Russian Losses on the Dnipro
🎦 02:29-05:41⏩
ChrisO_Wiki reports that Russian forces on the Dnipro River are experiencing heavy casualties - one soldier estimates 80% - and a severe lack of boats and supplies. Ukraine retaking the right bank in 2022 has led to frequent, unsuccessful Russian attempts to cross the river.
- A video appeal by Ilya Nezhivenko, a member of Russia's 810th Separate Marine Brigade, highlights the difficulties - he's presumed dead. His unit suffered heavy losses in Kherson and Kursk. He reveals they can cross at only one point, resulting in approximately 600 deaths with many missing or wounded. The wounded are reportedly not being evacuated. He says only 2 out of 10 soldiers survived a recent crossing and calls for his commanders to be punished.
- These reports are corroborated by Ukrainian Crimean Resistance Movement, ATESH. In December 2024, a disastrous attempt by the 70th Motorized Rifle Division to storm the right bank decimated platoons. Many soldiers are reportedly trying to avoid being deployed, sabotaging equipment, and intentionally injuring themselves to avoid fighting.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes
🎦 05:41-06:33⏩
Four Russian Pantsir-S1 air defence systems were destroyed by Ukrainian FPV drones - unusual as this system is usually situated far behind the front lines. Trent Selenko suggests Ukrainian FPV drones have increased range. These are highly valuable systems, making this a significant loss for Russia.
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Abandoned Russian BTR on the Sel River
🎦 06:33-07:25⏩
An abandoned Russian BTR, spotted by Andrew Perpetua, was found half-sunken in the frozen Sel River with supplies still attached. It's believed to have fallen through the ice while trying to cross. The 248th battalion, 129th Territorial Defence Brigade drone unit, later struck the BTR.
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Kursk Update and Trump's Lies
🎦 07:25-10:39⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the situation in Kursk, refuting Donald Trump's claims of Ukrainian encirclement.
- The Institute for the Study of War confirms no geolocation evidence of encircled Ukrainian troops.
- Zelensky states Ukrainian operations continue in designated areas of Kursk.
- Ukrainian intelligence analyst, Tatarigami, and journalist Yuri Butasov both refute encirclement claims.
- Jonathan labels Trump's claims as "insanely irresponsible", pointing to a broader pattern of misinformation surrounding the conflict.
- Keir Starmer, in contrast, delivers a clear and accurate assessment of the situation, highlighting Putin's unwillingness to engage in meaningful peace talks and the need for continued international support for Ukraine. Starmer is convening a meeting of 30 countries who are part of the "coalition of the winning plus".
Russian PsyOps and the Fall of Kursk
🎦 10:39-12:19⏩
A Russian soldier claims an order prohibits attacking retreating Ukrainian forces in Kursk, likely psyops to bolster Trump's narrative of Ukrainian encirclement. Jonathan believes this is part of Putin's strategy to manipulate Trump and influence the US position on the war. Ukrainian forces did suffer losses during their retreat from Kursk, including M1 Abrams tanks, M2 Bradleys, and M777 Howitzers.
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The Situation in Sumy
🎦 12:19-14:28⏩
- Konstantin, referencing Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butasov, states the border along Sumy is well-defended, with only small-scale attacks possible.
- However, Zelensky warns of a Russian troop buildup near Sumy, signalling a potential attack.
- Despite potential threats, Zelensky remains confident in Ukraine's ability to defend its territory.
Russian Drone Warfare Challenges
🎦 14:28-16:30⏩
Sam Bender reports on Russian military blogger claims about drone warfare near Turetsk. Ukrainians possess a significant 10:1 drone advantage. Russians are countering by using:
- Ropes with neodymium magnets attached to drones, launched to entangle enemy drone rotors
- Shotguns with 400-pellet muzzle attachments (Thunder Muzzle Break).
Despite these countermeasures, the Russians remain at a disadvantage.
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Russian and Ukrainian Drone and Missile Strikes
🎦 16:30-18:35⏩
- Ukraine's Air Force reports a large-scale Iranian Shahed drone attack. Of 178 drones launched, 130 were shot down and 38 taken down by electronic warfare - 10 drones got through.
- Russia also launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, targeting Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa, causing power outages.
- Tim White reports explosions in Chornomorsk, a town south of Odesa, resulting in injuries and power outages.
- In Kharkiv, emergency workers were targeted in a "double-tap" strike.
- A drone struck a college in Bohodyakiv. An hour later, another strike damaged a fire truck and a school bus, injuring four civilians.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory
🎦 18:35-23:59⏩
Ukraine launched over 100 drones into Russia, with the main target being a Lukoil oil plant in Volgograd. While Russia claims to have intercepted many, significant fires were reported at the refinery. Other strikes targeted:
- Valyuki, Belgorod (suspected train depot hit)
- Taurapsi oil refinery on the Black Sea (still burning after being hit the night before)
- Novorossiysk, home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet (cause of the fire uncertain).
Jonathan highlights the strategic importance of targeting rail depots, as it disrupts Russian logistics and troop movements. He thanks Paul Sweeney for providing FIRMS data (images of the fires).
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Military Aid Shortage?
🎦 23:59-24:28⏩
The two Patriot-equivalent anti-aircraft batteries provided by France and Italy are reportedly low on missiles, with replacements unable to be supplied quickly enough. Discussions are underway between France, Italy and the UK for joint production. This highlights the ongoing need for military aid for Ukraine.
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Trump's Stance on the War and its Implications
🎦 24:28-26:23⏩
Trump remains firmly aligned with Russia's stance on the war, prioritising a ceasefire over Ukrainian victory. A minerals deal between the US and Russia is close to being signed. Trump's rhetoric suggests he is receptive to Russia's demands for "peace" - likely a euphemism for achieving their maximalist objectives. Jonathan expresses concern about the implications of Trump's stance, suggesting Europe will need to shoulder more responsibility for supporting Ukraine.
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The Devastation of Prokrosk
🎦 26:23-26:23⏩
Jonathan reflects on his visit to Prokrosk in February 2024, which was not a frontline town at the time. Since the fall of Avdiivka, it's become a frontline town and subject to constant Russian attacks. He shares footage of the devastation, illustrating the brutal reality of "Russian liberation" which involves reducing towns to rubble.
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Foreign Volunteers and Russian Economic Struggles
🎦 26:23-27:24⏩
- A Ukrainian unit open to foreign volunteers received thousands of applications following Zelensky's meeting with Trump in the Oval Office.
- Anton Gerashchenko reveals 42 state-owned enterprises in Russian-occupied Donetsk haven't paid employees since the start of the year.
- Z-correspondent, Yulia Andriyenko, reports that no explanations or support are given, highlighting the dire economic situation in Russian-occupied areas.
- Truck sales in Russia have plummeted, illustrating the economic strain of the ongoing war.
US Obstruction of War Crimes Evidence?
🎦 27:24-29:59⏩
Jonathan expresses outrage over a New Republic report revealing the Trump administration cancelled a State Department contract to transfer evidence of Russian child abductions in Ukraine to European law enforcement. This evidence is central to the ICC's arrest warrant for Putin. Jonathan questions if this is gross negligence or deliberate collusion with Russia. Yale confirms the Humanitarian Research Lab's funding for their work documenting these war crimes has been cut.
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Wrap up
🎦 29:59-30:07⏩
Jonathan encourages viewers to challenge his views if they disagree. He ends the video with his usual sign off.
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