Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Goodness me, I wouldn't like to be a sapper doing this."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update from Ukraine. He explains that the video is later than usual. Jonathan also refers to his previous video in which he reflects on the first year of the war, apologising to viewers for getting emotional and crying.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses for 11th February 2024
🎦 01:09-02:19⏩
Jonathan discusses the figures released by the Ukrainian General Staff for Russian losses for the previous day, reminding viewers that the figures should be taken with a pinch of salt. He states that the figure of 790 Russian personnel lost is lower than we've seen recently but that this could be because the figures were released on a Monday, often referred to as "Weekend Drag" because the figures tend to be lower. The figures include 10 tanks, 21 APVs (higher than usual), 6 artillery systems (lower than usual - possibly due to the reported lack of ammunition and effectiveness of counter battery fire) and 7 fuel tanks (the highest for some time).
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Ukrainian Losses for 11th February 2024
🎦 02:19-05:08⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian equipment losses, using footage from Andrew Perpetua as a source. Losses include:
- 3 x M777 Howitzers (destroyed by Lancet loitering munitions)
- T-72 tank
- BMP-1 (destroyed by Lancet loitering munitions)
- MRAPS
- Pickup trucks and vans
- $40 million 9S36M fire control radar ( a high value target belonging to the Buk-M3 air defence system which was reportedly destroyed by a HIMARS strike in August 2023)
- 2 x MLRS (damaged but not destroyed)
- Various tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, trucks and civilian vehicles
Jonathan observes that Russian losses for the day far outweigh Ukrainian losses and that Lancet loitering munitions and FPV drones are proving effective for the Russians. He also notes the use of Gimlet and D-Pick cluster munitions.
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Stugna-P used against Russian troop concentration
05:08-06:09⏩
Footage shows the aftermath of a Stugna-P anti-tank missile system used against a group of Russian soldiers. It's thought that 15 Russian soldiers were killed. Jonathan suggests that this is an indication that artillery shells are in short supply for the Ukrainians as this would be the preferred weapon to use against such a target.
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TOS-1A destroyed in Luhansk Oblast
🎦 06:09-06:53⏩
Footage is shown of a Russian TOS-1A thermobaric multiple rocket launcher being tracked and destroyed by a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone which drops a mortar bomb on the TOS-1A. It is thought that the drone was also destroyed in the blast.
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Russian equipment destroyed in Tokmak
🎦 06:53-07:32⏩
Jonathan refers to footage shown in a previous video which he now knows shows the destruction of Russian equipment in Tokmak following a HIMARS strike. The Russians claimed that the strike hit civilian infrastructure but this was not the case.
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Fire at Military camp in Stavropol
🎦 07:32-07:54⏩
Footage shows a fire at a military camp in Stavropol, Russia. It's thought that the fire started in the headquarters. The Russians claim that the fire was caused by an electrical fault.
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Another Russian Soldier with Nazi tattoos
🎦 07:54-08:21⏩
Jonathan shows a photo of a captured Russian soldier with Nazi tattoos, highlighting the hypocrisy of Russia's claims to be 'denazifying' Ukraine.
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Damaged HIMARS systems returned to the US for repair
🎦 08:21-10:10⏩
Jonathan discusses photos (originally shared by OSINT blogger OSINTtechnical) which show damage sustained by two HIMARS systems during the war - the first photographic evidence of this. Jonathan states that Russians had claimed to have destroyed HIMARS systems but until now there was no evidence to support this. Jonathan recalls that in a previous video, he shared footage from the Military Summary channel which appeared to show a HIMARS being damaged. It's now thought that this could have been one of the HIMARS that has been returned to the US for repair but it's impossible to be sure.
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Distance Strikes
🎦 10:10-11:47⏩
Jonathan reports on distance strikes during the night which included:
- 17 x Shahed drones (14 shot down by Ukrainian air defences)
- Kh-59 guided air missile
- S-300 rockets fired from Belarus
- 40 x heavy bombs dropped by Russia on Avdiivka every day
Jonathan highlights Ukraine Battle Maps' assessment of what Ukraine needs to combat the threat from Russian glide bombs - more Patriot air defence systems and F-16 fighter jets with long range AMRAAM missiles. Jonathan expresses doubt that the F-16s will have the capability to launch these missiles. He recounts that, while he was driving earlier in the day, his colleague Genia received multiple notifications that glide bombs had been dropped. He also reveals that he was told today that Russia used Grom-1 high precision air-to-ground missiles in an attack on Kherson on 4th February.
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Grom-1 missile used in Kherson
🎦 11:47-14:27⏩
Jonathan discusses the use of Grom-1 missiles (which were first deployed in 2013) in Ukraine. This type of missile was initially developed for use by SU-57 fighter jets but has since been integrated with SU-34, SU-35 and SU-30 fighter jets. Jonathan notes that the photos of the missile's wreckage are the first photographic confirmation that they have been used in Kherson. They have previously been used in Donetsk and Kharkiv. The 594kg missile has a range of 120km and is equipped with an inertial and satellite guidance system, a 315kg warhead and is designed to strike stationary targets using pre-programmed coordinates.
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Russian Mi-24 helicopter pursues Ukrainian drone in Leningrad Oblast
🎦 14:27-15:34⏩
Footage shows a Russian Mi-24 helicopter pursuing a Ukrainian kamikaze drone in Leningrad Oblast, Russia. Jonathan highlights that Russian Aerospace Forces have set up specialist helicopter units with the specific aim of hunting down drones. He initially thinks that the helicopter is a Mi-8 but later clarifies that it is a Mi-24 but can't remember the designation. It's not clear whether the helicopter was able to shoot down the drone.
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Ukrainian basketball player murdered in Germany
🎦 15:34-16:03⏩
Jonathan reports on the death of a Ukrainian youth basketball player, Volodymyr Yermakov, who was stabbed to death in Dusseldorf, Germany. A 15 year old boy has been arrested.
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Russian Snipers blamed for water outage in Pavlohrad
🎦 16:03-17:27⏩
Jonathan reports that around 35,000 people have been left without water in Pavlohrad following damage to a pumping station which is being blamed on Russian snipers. Jonathan shares his surprise that snipers were responsible, recounting a conversation he had with a sniper who said he mainly targets cameras and surveillance equipment. He speculates that the snipers may have used high calibre weapons to cause the damage.
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Ukrainian Sappers uncover minefield
🎦 17:27-18:54⏩
Footage shows a minefield discovered by Ukrainian sappers, with a dense concentration of mines. Jonathan is impressed by the work of sappers who have to clear these dangerous obstacles.
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Wrap Up
🎦 18:54-19:13⏩
Jonathan ends the video by asking viewers to like, subscribe and share his content.
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