Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If Putin and Medvedev were on top of St. Basil's and they fell off, which one would hit the ground first? Who gives a f*?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another video - It's a Ukraine War news update for 2nd August 2024 and he kicks off with the Ukrainian General Staff figures.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:18-01:57⏩
Jonathan notes that the Russian losses are slightly lower than the daily average, but that 1,100 personnel is still high, as are the 42 artillery systems. He believes that the lower figures may be because the Russians are attacking in fewer places. The loss ratio based on equipment visually identified by Andrew Perpetua is around 3:1 in Ukraine's favour.
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Ukrainian Losses
🎦 01:57-03:14⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian losses which include an ST-68U Radar - an old Soviet-era Tin Shield radar system (so not the greatest loss), excavators and boats. He notes that Ukrainians appear to be losing more boats than the Russians recently. The Russians lost some comms equipment and a boat. Jonathan reviews the overall equipment losses for both sides. The volume of equipment lost by the Russians is higher, but nothing of significance appears to have been lost by either side. He observes that most Russian combat losses tend to be equipment that's been destroyed and abandoned.
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Patriot Missile System Claims
🎦 03:14-05:01⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from TASS (Russian state media) which quotes the Russian MOD's claim that three US-made Patriot missile systems have been destroyed. The report goes on to say that if this is true, the future looks bleak for Ukraine and NATO. Jonathan is skeptical about the claim, stating that whilst some elements of Patriot systems may have been hit, he believes the report to be nonsense.
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Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses
🎦 05:01-16:30⏩
Jonathan analyses some data visualisations based on Andrew Perpetua's data, pointing out how the use of drones has increased for both sides and how this has impacted visually confirmed losses. He talks about the importance of understanding the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses, noting that if the data is to be believed, Russia is losing equipment and personnel at unsustainable rates. Jonathan explains how Ukrainian General Staff figures should ideally be accurate, but if not, they should at least be consistently inaccurate, meaning they can still be useful to track trends. He notes that one reason for any discrepancies in loss figures will be down to the fact that it's impossible to obtain imagery of all equipment losses. Some equipment will have been recovered before any imagery was obtained, some will never be found and then there's the possibility that the Ukrainians may be overegging the numbers for propaganda purposes (although Jonathan suspects this is not the case). He seems quite impressed by the analysis.
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Drone Footage
🎦 16:30-17:15⏩
Jonathan shows some footage of a drone being recovered after being downed by electronic warfare. He notes how important it is to recover drones.
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Fire in Oleshky, Kherson
🎦 17:15-18:01⏩
Jonathan reports a fire at the Yunas textile factory in Oleshky, just over the Dnipro river from Kherson. The factory is said to be used to house Russian troops and Jonathan speculates that this may have been a strike by Ukrainian forces, noting how much artillery fire there was in the region when he visited.
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Missile Interception Rates (July 2024)
🎦 18:01-20:50⏩
Jonathan shares some statistics on Russian missile interception rates for July 2024 from Ukrainian Review:
- Shahed drones 92% interception rate
- KH101 Cruise missiles 86%
- KH59 100%
- KH59 and 69 95%
- Kalibr 86%
- Iskander-K 25%
- Iskander-M 14%
- Kinzhal 100%
- KH-22 0%
- KH-35 0%
- Zircon 0%
Jonathan points out that Ukraine has used more attack drones against Russia (560) than Russia used against Ukraine (427), marking an important milestone. He suggests that the Russians may need to focus on building more missiles that are harder for the Ukrainians to intercept, such as the Iskander-M, and to use these in greater numbers, perhaps overwhelming Ukrainian air defences.
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Atakans Missile Strikes in Crimea
🎦 20:50-23:13⏩
Jonathan reports that Atakans missiles were launched into Crimea and that there is data to suggest that a Russian S-400 missile system south of Sevastopol was destroyed. Jonathan notes that he's not allowed to show the footage, but that secondary explosions can be seen and chunks of missile propellant were reported to have fallen on nearby buildings. He wonders about the interception rates of the Atakans missiles as Russian sources often make claims about interceptions but that evidence often points to the contrary. He also speculates about what the destruction of the S-400 by an older Atakans missile says about the capabilities of both systems. In addition to the S-400, there were reports of strikes in Sevastopol, Sakhiyev, Pretoria and Simferopol, with one possible target being the Black Sea Fleet shipyard.
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Drone Strikes in Krasnodar
🎦 23:13-24:14⏩
Jonathan reports that two drones struck the Kuban electric substation in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar. Built in 2010, the substation provides electricity to 2.5 million people and it is likely that any successful attack will result in power supply problems for local residents.
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Fire at Omsk Oil Refinery
🎦 24:14-25:42⏩
Jonathan reports a fire at the Omsk oil refinery - the biggest in Russia. No cause for the fire has been identified and there are no reports of drone attacks. Jonathan believes it unlikely that a drone was responsible given that Omsk is over 2,500km from Ukraine. He notes that this is bad news for Russia's already struggling hydrocarbons industry.
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Mariupol Railway
🎦 25:42-26:32⏩
Jonathan discusses the restoration of the railway line to Mariupol, noting that this will shorten Russia's logistical supply lines by nearly 300km. Petro Andryushchenko, advisor to the mayor of Mariupol, described it as a logistical breakthrough. Jonathan wonders whether this is a new line through to Berdyansk and Northern Crimea or the line that was already in existence through to Tagomrog. He speculates that the Ukrainians will be keen to target this new route.
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Ukraine Peace Summit?
🎦 26:32-27:10⏩
Jonathan discusses the Kremlin's response to a proposed second peace summit, which is that no such summit is being prepared, despite calls from other European countries that Russia should be involved in discussions.
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US Prisoner Exchange
🎦 27:10-27:51⏩
Jonathan mentions that he will discuss the recent US prisoner exchange in more detail in his Geopolitics video, but that he believes it was a coup for the Biden administration, showing the strength of international cooperation with countries such as Germany, who agreed to release prisoners with high leverage in exchange for the US prisoners.
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Putin Body Double?
🎦 27:51-29:30⏩
Jonathan shows a picture of Putin meeting crowds and hugging people. He compares the appearance of Putin in this picture to how he looked in the 1990s/early 2000s and suggests that this may be a body double. He notes that the Putin in the picture looks more Eastern European/Russian and that the Putin of the 90s appears to be more of a germaphobe who sits a long way away from people. He concludes that there are two Putins - one that meets the masses and one that doesn't. He is convinced that something strange is going on.
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Putin Body Double - Facial Recognition Evidence
🎦 29:30-30:06⏩
Jonathan discusses some facial recognition analysis that has been undertaken by Japanese researchers, which seems to show that there are at least three Putins, with some having a higher degree of similarity than others. He believes that the Putin from the 1990s is no longer seen in public.
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Stephen Fry visits Ukraine
🎦 30:06-32:43⏩
Jonathan talks about Stephen Fry's recent trip to Ukraine, where he visited a comedy club. He tells a joke that Stephen Fry told Zelensky: "If Putin and Medvedev were on top of St. Basil's and they fell off, which one would hit the ground first? Who gives a f*?". Jonathan loves the joke and plays a clip of Stephen Fry talking at the comedy club about the importance of laughter, especially in times of war.
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Wrap up
🎦 32:43-33:17⏩
Jonathan signs off by urging viewers to find time to laugh and not to be too overwhelmed by geopolitics, war and political turmoil.
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