Syria-Russia-Ukraine Update: Aleppo Falls to the Rebels - What's Going On?
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia is in the weakest bargaining position it’s ever been. So China’s taking advantage of it. India’s taking advantage of it. It’s like if you want hydrocarbons, now’s your time to go and do a deal with Russia because they are desperate, right? And so Turkey is actually bending Russia over a desk here because they have no ability to stand up to Turkey because they’re being sanctioned left, right, and center."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:16⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video and explains this video will cover the situation in Syria, how Russia is involved and what impact the situation might have on the war in Ukraine.
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Syria-Russia Geopolitical context
🎦 00:16-01:02⏩
Jonathan provides geographical context for the video using a map, pointing out the locations of Syria, the Black Sea, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and the Mediterranean Sea. He highlights the port of Tartus on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, which he believes is Russia's primary motivation for supporting the Assad regime due to its strategic importance as a warm water port.
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Syrian Civil War: Overview and Key Players
🎦 01:02-02:21⏩
Jonathan provides context on the long-running Syrian Civil War, describing the Assad regime as horrific and highlighting the involvement of various rebel forces, including ISIS and other jihadist groups. He discusses the complexities of the conflict, where some rebel groups fighting against Assad are also considered extremist groups. He mentions the Kurds, who are fighting against both Assad and Turkey, and the US support for the Kurds in their fight against ISIS.
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Aleppo: Fall to Rebels
🎦 02:21-03:10⏩
Jonathan discusses the fall of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, to rebel forces in a surprisingly swift offensive that took only three days. He points out the significance of this event, as it marks the first opposition attack on Aleppo since 2016 when Russian airstrikes helped Assad retake the city. He emphasises that Aleppo was under the control of opposition forces in 2015, but with Russian assistance, the Assad regime regained control.
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Syrian Civil War: International Involvement and Shifting Alliances
🎦 03:10-05:51⏩
Jonathan examines the roles of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and other groups in supporting Assad’s hold on power, highlighting the complexities of the conflict where Western forces broadly oppose the Assad regime but are cautious about aligning with certain rebel groups due to their extremist ideologies. He explains that with the help of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and other groups, Assad has managed to stay in power, controlling 70% of Syria. Jonathan notes the intricate situation where the US opposes the Assad regime while also supporting the Kurds who are fighting against both Assad and Turkey.
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Syrian Civil War: Impact and Concerns
🎦 05:51-07:57⏩
Jonathan delves into the potential ramifications of the escalating violence in Syria, particularly concerning the ongoing conflicts between Israel and Iranian-backed groups Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. He raises concerns about the potential for the situation to destabilize the region further and create opportunities for groups like ISIS to exploit the chaos. He provides insights from Robert Ford, the last US ambassador to Syria, who suggests that the recent rebel advances are partly due to Israeli strikes on Syrian and Hezbollah targets, which have weakened Assad's forces. He highlights the potential for the conflict to escalate if Russia and Turkey, both with significant interests in Syria, engage in direct military confrontation, emphasizing the complex interplay of international actors and their motivations in the Syrian conflict.
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Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): Rise and Transformation
🎦 07:57-10:26⏩
Jonathan discusses Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant force in the rebel offensive on Aleppo. He explains that while HTS’s success against Assad is notable, the group is designated as a terrorist organization by the US and UN. Jonathan traces the history of HTS, mentioning its origins as an Al-Qaeda affiliate under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Golani. He explains that although HTS initially engaged in extremist activities, in recent years, Golani has attempted to rebrand the group, renouncing ties with al-Qaeda, disbanding its religious police, and presenting a more moderate image. Jonathan notes the significance of HTS allowing the first Christian mass in Idlib in years as a sign of its evolving stance.
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Aleppo: Historical Significance and Destruction
🎦 10:26-11:12⏩
Jonathan delves into the historical and cultural importance of Aleppo, describing it as a historical crossroads of trade routes and a centre for commerce and culture in the Middle East. He recounts the devastating impact of the war on the city, which was home to 2.3 million people before the conflict. Jonathan outlines how opposition forces captured the eastern part of Aleppo in 2012, making it a symbol of their advance but in 2016 government forces, with Russian air support, besieged and retook the city. He details the brutal tactics employed, including the use of barrel bombs, that caused widespread destruction and forced the opposition to surrender. He emphasizes the significance of Russia's intervention in shaping the war's trajectory, allowing Assad to consolidate his hold on power.
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International Involvement in Syria: A Crowded Battlefield
🎦 11:12-12:17⏩
Jonathan highlights the multifaceted international involvement in the Syrian conflict beyond Russia's direct support for Assad. He points to Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions and other strategic assets in Aleppo and other government-held areas. He mentions the presence of Turkish forces and their influence over various rebel groups operating in Syria, adding another layer of complexity to the conflict. Jonathan reiterates the danger of the situation escalating into a broader regional conflict, particularly given the involvement of multiple international actors with their own agendas.
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Aleppo: Rebel Advance and Capture of Military Equipment
🎦 12:17-13:30⏩
Jonathan covers the rapid advance of rebel forces, particularly HTS, in the Aleppo region, resulting in the capture of significant military hardware from retreating Syrian government forces. He describes scenes of rebel fighters moving freely through the streets of Aleppo following the withdrawal of Syrian army units. He highlights the large quantities of abandoned military equipment, including tanks and armoured vehicles, left behind by retreating Syrian forces, indicating a collapse of resistance in the face of the rebel offensive.
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Syrian Rebel Offensive: Expanding Frontlines and Key Targets
🎦 13:30-14:04⏩
Jonathan discusses the expanding scope of the rebel offensive, noting reports of an attack on the Kuwaiti military airbase, a crucial Russian military installation in Syria since 2015. He recalls the previous attack on the same base by Ukrainian special forces in the summer of 2024, which targeted Russian electronic warfare systems. He highlights the significance of the airbase attack, signifying the rebels’ growing capabilities and their willingness to strike at high-value Russian targets.
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Russia’s Weakening Grip on Syria: Implications and Challenges
🎦 14:04-16:02⏩
Jonathan analyses the implications of the rebel advances for Russia’s position in Syria, suggesting that the Kremlin’s ability to prop up the Assad regime is waning. He attributes this to several factors, including the degradation of Russian military assets in Syria, likely due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the lack of air superiority, a stark contrast to Russia’s previous decisive role in the Syrian conflict. He presents the view that Russia’s military performance in Ukraine has diminished its standing and deterrence, emboldening actors like Turkey to pursue their interests more assertively in Syria.
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Russia's Plight: From Carpet Bombing to Diplomatic Scrambling
🎦 16:02-17:12⏩
Jonathan discusses the escalating challenges Russia faces as its position in Syria deteriorates. He notes that Russia has resorted to carpet bombing civilian areas, particularly in Idlib, in a desperate attempt to stem the rebel advance. He highlights the visit of Bashar al-Assad to Moscow, speculating on whether it is to seek refuge or request additional military support. Jonathan describes the dire situation Russia finds itself in as it grapples with significant military losses in Ukraine, protests in Georgia against the Russian-backed government, a plummeting ruble, and a weakening economy.
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Russia's Energy Struggles: Gazprom, TurkStream, and Turkish Leverage
🎦 17:12-20:32⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Russia's energy politics, specifically its reliance on gas exports and the challenges posed by Turkey's growing leverage. He shares an analysis from Anton Gershenko, highlighting the perspective from the Russian segment of Telegram. This analysis posits that the situation in Syria has regressed to its 2015 state, before Russia’s direct military intervention. Jonathan discusses Russia’s motivations for intervening in Syria, linking it to disagreements with Turkey over the TurkStream gas pipeline project. He argues that Russia’s current weakened state makes it vulnerable to exploitation by countries like Turkey, which can now dictate more favourable terms in energy deals and other negotiations. Jonathan emphasizes that Russia’s economic woes, exacerbated by sanctions and the conflict in Ukraine, have significantly reduced its bargaining power on the international stage.
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Future Implications: Assessing Russia's Options in Syria
🎦 20:32-21:16⏩
Jonathan speculates on the potential outcomes of the Syrian crisis, pondering whether Russia will commit more resources to salvage the situation or accept a diminished role in the region. He acknowledges reports suggesting Russia is sending military equipment to Syria but questions their ability to significantly impact the situation given their commitments in Ukraine. Jonathan emphasizes the dilemma Russia faces as it tries to maintain its influence in Syria while simultaneously waging a costly war in Ukraine, suggesting that their capacity to effectively manage both conflicts is limited.
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Ukraine Benefits as Russia Overextends
🎦 21:16-21:55⏩
Jonathan argues that the unfolding events in Syria, while troubling for the region, present a strategic advantage for Ukraine. He posits that Russia’s need to divert resources and attention to Syria weakens its overall position, benefiting Ukraine in its ongoing fight against Russian aggression. Jonathan suggests that Russia’s overextension in multiple conflicts is unsustainable and will ultimately undermine its geopolitical ambitions.
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Potential Tipping Points: A Glimmer of Hope for a Beleaguered Russia
🎦 21:55-22:23⏩
Jonathan identifies potential tipping points that could further destabilise Russia’s position. He highlights ongoing protests in Georgia against the Russian-backed government and the upcoming presidential elections in Romania, where a pro-Russian candidate’s potential defeat could further erode Russian influence in the region. He speculates that a combination of factors, including a weakening economy, a faltering military campaign in Ukraine, and setbacks in Syria, could significantly weaken the Putin regime.
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Wrap Up
🎦 22:23-22:43⏩
Jonathan concludes by acknowledging the complexities of the Syrian conflict, admitting his limited expertise on the subject. He encourages viewers to share their knowledge and insights while emphasizing the interconnectedness of global events, particularly how the situation in Syria can impact the war in Ukraine and vice versa. He thanks viewers for watching.
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