Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"This is why the counteroffensive is going to be and is being difficult. These aren't, you know, things that you can just hand wave away and say, well, we've got the capability of being able to breach these defenses."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video with his usual greeting and mentions he has his tea. He hopes for lasting peace in Ukraine.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
The Ukraine General Staff reported the following Russian losses for the previous day:
- 630 liquidated personnel
- 5 tanks, 6 APVs/IFVs (down from previous days)
- 18 artillery systems (a sizeable number)
- 1 helicopter (5th or 6th in the last week)
- 12 drones
- 42 vehicles/fuel tanks
- 4 pieces of special equipment
Helicopter Shot Down
Another Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter was shot down, likely on the southern front line.
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Operational Pause Rumors
There are rumors that Ukrainians might have taken an operational pause in the counteroffensive to re-evaluate tactics, according to Estonian intelligence. This could be psyops or indicate the Ukrainians are facing stiffer resistance than anticipated. The situation is unclear.
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Visually Confirmed Losses
Oryx reported visually confirmed losses for both sides:
- Russians: 26 pieces of equipment (tanks, IFVs, trucks)
- Ukrainians: 19 pieces of equipment
The Ukrainian losses being almost as high as Russian ones is expected for an attacking force. However, many Russian self-propelled guns known to be hit are missing from the list.
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Russian Battalion Surrounded
Russian sources admitted that a Russian commander and 300 fighters from the "Storm Ossetia" battalion died after being surrounded in Pyatykhatky, a village the Ukrainians fought hard to take. There are conflicting rumors about related footage showing a Russian truck being hit - it's unclear if it shows fleeing Ossetians, Ukrainians in Russian uniforms, or something else.
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Russian Tank Turned into SVBIED
The Russians turned a T-54/55 tank into a remotely-controlled SVBIED (suicide vehicle-borne IED) filled with 6 tons of explosives and sent it towards Ukrainian positions in Maryinka. However, it struck a mine and was then hit by a Ukrainian ATGM, resulting in a massive explosion. The attempt failed.
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Other News
- A car carrying the deputy PM of Zaporizhzhia region exploded in Simferopol, likely due to partisan activity. The officials suffered severe burns.
- Russians have been hitting Kherson, destroying 10 buses in a car park.
Long-Range Strikes on Russian Targets
The Ukrainians have been heavily targeting Russian logistics and command centers far behind the front lines:
- Russian sources claim a headquarters of their 80th brigade was hit, with up to 12 officers killed.
- A huge explosion occurred at a major ammunition depot in Rykove, north of Henichesk, that had been supplying the Russian Zaporizhzhia front. It burned for 6 hours with many secondary explosions. At least 52 died. This is a bigger blow than losing a battalion of armor.
- More explosions hit Mykhailivka ammunition depot north of Melitopol.
- A command post was reportedly hit in Zaporizhzhia, possibly killing 170 Russians.
- In Russia, a veterans' hospital under construction caught fire in Bryansk.
- The town of Grayvoron in Belgorod was attacked again, after a previous raid by the Russian Volunteer Corps in May.
- A fuel and lubricant warehouse exploded and caught fire in Kursk, causing power outages.
- In southeast Moscow, a 4-story mechanical plant under renovation went up in flames.
Humanitarian Issues
- The UN has been unable to help people on the left bank of the Kherson region after the Kakhovka dam attack because Russia rejected their request for access to occupied territories. Russia appears to be doing little to help civilians in areas they claim to have "liberated."
- There are many accounts of Ukrainians using drones to drop food and water to trapped civilians on the other side of the Dnipro river. Meanwhile, the Russians have been accused of organized castration of Ukrainian POWs.
- A retired British couple who have been volunteering in Ukraine for a year had their UK bank account closed, cutting off money they use to fund aid packages. Interestingly, their house back in Lancashire is housing two Ukrainian refugee families while they are away.
Military Aid
- Sweden, Czechia, Slovakia and Ukraine signed an agreement to jointly procure and operate CV90 infantry fighting vehicles. Czechia is buying 246, Slovakia 152, and Ukraine wants 1000 after receiving 50 from Sweden. Joint procurement allows for lower unit costs.
- Israel is selling over 200 Merkava Mk 2 and Mk 3 tanks to Poland and likely Ukraine for the first time. The deal is worth tens of millions of dollars.
- Ukraine's Sapsan M2 tactical ballistic missile system, with a 280km range, is reportedly 70% ready. They may be increasing the range to the original 500km spec for an indigenous system not subject to export restrictions. This would allow strikes deep into Russia.
- Mockups of Russian S300 and S400 air defense launchers, likely decoys, have been spotted under construction in the USA, probably to be sent to Ukraine.
- Russia has apparently copied the design of Ukrainian naval drones used to attack Sevastopol, but their version is smaller and less capable.
Frontline Update
According to a Finnish fighter (via Kenneth Runt) on the morning of June 18:
- At Makarivka (near Velyka Novosilka), Ukrainians repelled a Russian attack and advanced on the flanks. The area is heavily mined so they are slowly clearing corridors.
- South of Novodanylivka (near Robotyne), Ukrainians captured an area 6km wide by 1km deep.
- At Vuhledar, north of Mykilske, Ukrainians have started shrinking the "infected area."
- The most progress is at Avdiivka, with a 4km wide, 1.5km deep advance near Vesele against Chechen forces.
- North of Soledar (near Bakhmut), Russians were forced back at Rozdolivka.
The Ukrainian tactic seems to be incremental advances of 1-1.5km, then stabilizing the area before the next push. Fighting has decreased slightly in intensity around Bakhmut, with Ukrainian forces mainly trying to attrit Russian reserves. Researcher Brady Africk provided an update on extensive Russian trench lines being built around Tokmak and settlements to the northeast, illustrating the challenges of the counteroffensive.
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Geopolitics
- An interesting Guardian article titled "Georgians dream of EU membership as their leaders move closer to Putin" discusses the contradictory pro-EU yet increasingly pro-Russian positioning of Georgia's government. This will be discussed in more detail in a separate video.
- The Bank of China has restricted currency transfers from Russia to banks in the EU, US, UK and Switzerland. It's unclear if this is to avoid sanctions issues with the West or has some benefit to Russia. More analysis is needed.
Wrap up
Jonathan encourages viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. He will be doing a separate frontline update mapping to clarify the situation for himself, as well as a live stream later with Andrew Perpetua. Viewers don't need to watch all his content, but he appreciates the support.
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