Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"We are only safe today thanks to Ukraine."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war for 6th May 2023 as things build up towards a counter-offensive.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 560 liquidated Russian personnel, a dip from recent days but expected in transition period between Russian offensive and anticipated Ukrainian offensive
- Losses of 7 tanks, 14 APCs, 14 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems, 14 drones, 20 vehicles/fuel tanks, 2 pieces of special equipment
- Artillery systems being explicitly targeted by Ukrainians in counter-battery efforts, especially along Dnipro River in Kherson area
- 20 vehicles is another day of massive vehicle losses for Russians
Evidence of High Russian KIA to WIA Ratio
- Trent Telenko advocates Russian losses are as high as Ukrainian General Staff claim, with particularly high losses and poor treatment of wounded
- Video shows Ukrainian border guards near Bakhmut saying for 3 days Russians abandoned their wounded 100-150m from Russian positions, leaving them to die
- Thousands of Russian bodies litter fields, with invaders running over bodies of dead colleagues
Targeting of Russian Artillery Along Dnipro River
Video evidence shows a Russian self-propelled howitzer taken out by a Ukrainian team around the Dnipro River in Kherson, confirming artillery is being purposefully targeted on a daily basis.
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Russian Jamming of US-Provided HIMARS
- CNN reports Russia has been increasingly thwarting US-made HIMARS rocket systems in Ukraine using electronic jammers to disrupt GPS targeting
- Forcing US and Ukraine to find workarounds to evolving Russian jamming in a "constant cat and mouse game"
- Ukraine has 18 US HIMARS and 10 other MLRS systems from NATO allies
- GPS jamming also affects other smart US munitions like Excalibur artillery shells and JDAM bombs
- US advising Ukraine on identifying and destroying Russian jammers as there are limited ways to modify HIMARS
- Widespread Russian jamming has drawbacks for their own forces' ability to communicate and operate
Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile Shot Down
- Ukraine claims to have intercepted a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile, likely with newly provided Patriot air defence systems
- Significant as Russia has touted the Kinzhal as "invincible", able to accelerate to Mach 10 and manoeuvre to breach any air defences
- Contradicts previous Russian claims that Ukraine has nothing to shoot down Kinzhals
- Perun's analysis suggests Kinzhal is more a "glorified cruise missile" using existing tech rather than groundbreaking
Other Overnight News
- Ukrainian forces shot down 10 drones over past day
- Two explosions and fire occurred near Dzhankoy logistics hub in northern Crimea, likely to be hit more ahead of counter-offensive
- Kramatorsk and Slovyansk behind Bakhmut hit by S-300s causing extensive damage to factories and civilian areas
- Russia using incendiary munitions on Bakhmut causing massive fires, psychologically horrific and damaging to any exposed vehicles
- Apartment block and warehouses on fire in Yekaterinburg, Russia
Odds & Ends
- More Russian governors cancelling Victory Day parades citing terrorism risks, likely due to lack of working military equipment to display and potential for soldiers' families to show true scale of losses bringing photos of the recently deceased
- Infamous pro-Russian blogger Gonzalo Lira arrested in Kharkiv
- Russian schoolteacher convicted and fined for printing Wikipedia article on invasion after being tasked to prepare "special operation" materials
- 18 places in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to be evacuated, confirming southern front as main theatre encompassing the oblast
- Crimean bridge and ferries closed by occupiers due to potential attack
Military Aid
- European Council approved plan to jointly procure 1 million artillery rounds and missiles for Ukraine from European defence industry
- German Rheinmetall to provide significant artillery ammunition, producing up to 600,000 shells per year
- Reason to think Ukraine's first major 2023 offensive of 4+ brigades will be in June once trained maintainers and logistical supply chain in place for Leopard 1 tanks
- Over 3,800 drone complexes contracted and 7,000 drone operators trained in Ukraine with goal of 10,000, losing hundreds of small drones per week to attrition
- 42,000 Starlink terminals provided by international partners give critical communications to energy, medics, military
- Ukrainian-made kamikaze drones for front line use continue at fair rate with 140 finished by one group in recent days
- Almost 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers trained so far at camp in UK with help of other nations
- Ukraine receives first RAK 12 128mm rocket launchers from Croatia to replace makeshift systems
- 5,000 Ukrainian women serving on front lines with 107 killed, 60,000 total in armed forces including civilian roles
Geopolitics
- Switzerland considers joining EU military mobility and cyber defence projects in shift from neutrality
- Moldovan president says Russia would have invaded if Ukraine invasion went to plan, Moldova only safe thanks to Ukraine
- Former Russian President Medvedev openly calls for assassination of Ukraine's President Zelensky, raising questions of legality and repercussions
Wrap up
Jonathan appreciates viewers spending time with him and will provide a front-line update when possible, though a bit funky with the coronation and his son's football. He's a bit "meh" on the coronation but supposes people can get excited by the King's new hat.
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