Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"Victory can be given to us with such bloodshed that we can hardly imagine and I think that the authorities will descend from Mount Olympus only when people realize how many of their children, fathers, brothers and husbands are dying."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine War for June 21, 2023. He mentions there is a lot of content to cover in this video.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Russian personnel losses have dropped compared to the previous day, likely due to the 300 troops lost in Pyatikhatki and 170 in a missile strike being included in yesterday's figures
- However, there are still significant losses in other categories:
- 9 tanks
- 21 APVs (infantry fighting vehicles and APCs)
- 32 artillery systems
- 1 MLRS
- 3 anti-aircraft warfare systems
- 35 drones
- 22 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 8 pieces of special equipment
- There is a lot of footage of failed Russian counter-attacks and equipment being destroyed, particularly around Pyatikhatki, Velyka Novosilka, and Chervona Popivka
Russian Drone Attack
Russia attacked Ukraine last night with drones. 6 out of 6 Shahids were shot down along with 4 reconnaissance drones. This was a relatively quiet attack compared to previous ones.
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Analysis of Losses
- An article by Henry Schlottman analyzes the losses, suggesting Ukraine lost more equipment than Russia in the first week, but much of it was abandoned rather than destroyed
- When looking at destroyed figures, there is parity
- However, the data may be skewed due to operational security - Russia released a lot of data while Ukraine did not, leading to selection bias in open source intelligence like Oryx
Ukrainian Claims of Russian Losses
- Ukraine claims that in the Tavria direction, Russia lost over 5 companies killed/wounded and 46 units of military equipment destroyed/damaged in one day, including:
- 33 tanks
- 7 BMPs
- 1 APC
- 4 howitzers
- 1 anti-aircraft missile system
- Drones
- It's unclear if these figures are included in the daily reports or will be in tomorrow's
- There is video evidence to support at least some of the claims
Russian Artillery Ammunition
- Analysis suggests Russia may be running out of artillery ammunition
- During defensive operations, double the rate of fire is needed compared to offensive operations
- Estimates are Russia is firing around 40,000 rounds per day currently, compared to 60,000 per day last summer
- This is still more than during their recent supposed offensive, but not enough for proper defensive operations
- Ukraine was stockpiling artillery ammunition during previous defensive operations in preparation for their current offensive
Frontline Update
- Heavy fighting continues west and northwest of Klishchiivka, with Russians being pushed back about 100 meters
- At Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Ukrainians are seeing some success but Russians have reinforced with "cannon fodder" in the front lines while better soldiers wait in defensive lines
- Avdiivka remains a difficult situation for Ukraine as Russia tries to break through
- Similar situation in Pobeda south of Marinka
- In Zaporizhzhia, Russian tank companies tried to retake Pyatykhatky but the highway became a "new Chornobaivka" with many vehicles destroyed
- Ukrainians are securing areas as they liberate them before moving forward
- Russians are trying to prevent Ukrainians from reaching main defensive line
- Large-scale combat ongoing on Kreminna front with minor Russian advances in one sector
Odds and Ends
- Russian Defense Minister Shoigu threatens strikes on "decision-making centers in Ukraine" if Storm Shadow missiles are used outside the "special operation zone"
- Strelkov/Girkin believes a riot in Russia is inevitable as leadership is out of touch with reality of the war
- Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov, previously claimed dead or in a coma by Russia, appeared on TV alive and well
- Prominent Russian military blogger Wargonzo may have been killed in action based on video evidence
- 370 pro-Russian disinformation websites were discovered in Bulgaria
- Migrant workers in Russia, even those with legal status, face discrimination and abuse
- A concert in Tambov, Russia was shut down by police as an illegal gathering
- Distressing video of a young Russian girl being forcibly taken by police, allegedly for an anti-war drawing at school
Military Aid
- Issues with some Western military aid being delivered late or in poor/unusable condition requiring extensive repairs, complicating Ukraine's offensive plans
- Examples of Humvees, howitzers from US needing major repairs before reaching Ukraine
- UK announces $3 billion in loan guarantees and assistance for Ukraine
- US found it overestimated cost of aid by $6.2 billion, allowing billions more to be provided
- Delays in US approval for training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s
- Extremely realistic decoy models of Russian air defense systems like S-300 seen in US
- Portugal transferring 14 more M113 APCs and nine 105mm howitzers
- Delivery plan for Leopard 1A5 tanks: 10 in July, 80 total in 2023, 30 more in 2024
- Ukraine develops drone with 1000km range and 75kg warhead
Geopolitics
- 11 Ukrainian POWs sent to Hungary under unclear circumstances regarding their freedom of movement and ability to return to Ukraine
- 41 companies commit to providing jobs and training to 250,000 Ukrainian refugee women across Europe
- However, only 17% of Western companies have fully exited Russia, with the rest generating $136 billion in Russian revenue in 2022
- GE stops servicing turbines in Russia which may impact power generation
- Britain will not lift Russia sanctions until Ukraine is compensated
- Ukraine seeking $40 billion for "green Marshall Plan" to rebuild economy
- France backs Ukraine's NATO bid to pressure Russia into peace talks, a reversal from 2008
- Russian economy in major trouble with reserves being depleted rapidly
Wrap Up
Jonathan apologizes for the length of the video and thanks viewers for their support.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
The details around the 11 Ukrainian POWs sent to Hungary were a bit unclear in terms of their exact status and the arrangement between Hungary/Russia/Ukraine.
The name of the Russian military blogger Wargonzo was not provided in the transcript.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Watch the video and read through the transcript
Identify the main topics covered in the video
Summarize each topic, providing enough context and detail
Use the provided XML structure to format the summary
Select a key quote from the video
Review the summary to ensure all topics are covered and the information is accurate
