Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia is now producing fake BBC videos that are almost undetectable"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. Today's video is Part 1 of the Ukraine War Update for the 11th March 2024. Jonathan had to restart the video because the doorbell rang. New t-shirt stash arrived (hooray!) Jonathan thanks Chris Jones for designing the new ATP Geopolitics t-shirts.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:19-02:36⏩
Jonathan provides the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day. He notes that the figures should be treated with caution and directs viewers to the caveats listed in the video description. The losses are:
- Personnel - 920 ( a high number and unsustainable long term)
- Tanks - 8 (lower than recent figures but still significant).
- Armoured Personnel Vehicles - 24 (above average)
- Artillery Systems - 33 (above average).
- MLRS - 1
- Anti-Aircraft Warfare Systems - 2
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks - 74 (phenomenally high number - Jonathan thinks Russia is using non-standard vehicles)
- Special Equipment - 14
Jonathan thanks Bill (for the dashboard) and Dell (for the spreadsheet) for their efforts in tracking these statistics.
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Ukrainian Losses
🎦 02:36-05:14⏩
Jonathan shares the Ukrainian losses reported by Andrew Perpetua. Losses are approaching parity but there have been slightly higher losses for Russia. Ukrainian losses include:
- M777 Howitzer
- AS90 (UK) or A Crab (Poland) Self Propelled Howitzer
- M1 Abrams (thought to be the fourth so far)
The Crab was damaged by ammo fire. Jonathan notes that some Ukrainian equipment was damaged whilst most of the Russian equipment was destroyed. This should be factored in when assessing equipment losses.
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Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Replaced
🎦 05:14-07:05⏩
The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Nikolai Yevmenov has been relieved of his duties according to Russian media reports. Jonathan believes that Yevmenov took over from Sokolov who went missing (presumed dead) after an attack on Naval headquarters last year. Rumours suggest that Yevmenov's removal is due to the number of Russian ships lost recently. Alexander Moiseev has reportedly been appointed as acting commander. Jonathan believes that this change in command indicates the failures of the Russian Navy in the war against Ukraine. Jonathan speculates whether the increased use of Ukrainian naval drones could be a contributing factor.
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Jonathan's Naval Drone Theory
🎦 07:05-08:58⏩
Jonathan contemplates Ukraine's use of naval drones. He compares the situation to a computer game, wondering whether it would be possible for Ukraine to amass a huge number of naval drones with different capabilities (some to ram and blow up targets, others to provide air defence). He suggests that Ukraine could "park" these drones outside of Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, preventing any ships from leaving. He wonders if this is a plausible tactic.
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Update on the A-50 Strike
🎦 08:58-11:30⏩
Jonathan refers to the recent drone strike on Taganrog and provides an update on the A-50 that was potentially located in one of the hangars. Satellite imagery appeared to show minimal damage but there have been consistent claims that it was seriously damaged. Analysis of imagery of hangar 66 shows blackening around the skylights, suggesting there was a fire inside. The claim is that the fire would have damaged any sensitive equipment inside the hangar, even if the A-50 was not present.
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Russian Equipment Losses Near Novomokulivka (Donetsk Oblast)
🎦 11:30-12:46⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces have repelled three Russian assaults near Novomokulivka in Donetsk Oblast, destroying equipment and inflicting manpower losses. Jonathan notes that there is a lot of footage circulating online (which he cannot share) showing destroyed Russian equipment in that area. He adds that a lot of the footage appears to show Ukrainian artillery being used (which is a good sign).
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Russians Claim Capture of Leopard 2A6
🎦 12:46-13:38⏩
A Russian Telegram channel has been circulating an image of a Russian soldier with a destroyed Leopard 2A6. They claimed it as a recent victory but footage of this Leopard 2A6 has been circulating online since October 2023. This tank was damaged and abandoned near Avdiivka in October and footage was shared of it being hit by a Lancet drone in November. This has been logged on the Oryx Ukrainian loss list.
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Fourth Ukrainian Abrams Tank Destroyed
🎦 13:38-14:27⏩
Images are circulating online of a fourth Ukrainian Abrams tank destroyed in the Avdiivka area. Jonathan confirms that it does appear to be destroyed. The Ukrainians appear to be using Abrams tanks in that area.
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Ukrainian Pilot Killed in Combat
🎦 13:54-14:27⏩
A Ukrainian pilot, Major Andrei Tatchenko, was killed on March 8th during a combat sortie. It is thought that this is the Ukrainian Mig-29 that was reported on the loss list yesterday.
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Russian Forces Using FAB-1500 Bombs
🎦 14:27-15:21⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia is using FAB-1500s (1,500kg unguided bombs) which is undermining the Ukrainian defence. He believes this to be one of the biggest threats.
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Update on UK Challenger 2 Tanks
🎦 15:21-16:46⏩
The UK's The Sun newspaper has reported that of the 14 (or potentially 22-28) Challenger 2 tanks sent to Ukraine, only 5 are thought to be operational. This is due to a shortage of spare parts. One of the challenges of this particular tank is its weight (70 tonnes). It is very heavy and as a result they are getting stuck in the mud.
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Russian Drone Strikes on Odessa and Kharkiv
🎦 16:46-18:26⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been drone strikes on Odessa and Kharkiv overnight. In Kharkiv, 3 drones struck the ground near administrative buildings in the Slobid district damaging a high rise building and some cars. There were no reported injuries. In Odessa, there were strikes on infrastructure and residential buildings, although the extent of the damage is unknown.
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Russian Drone Strikes on Other Ukrainian Targets
🎦 17:24-19:54⏩
Jonathan reports that Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk and surrounding areas were attacked as well as Odessa and Kharkiv. It is thought that 15 out of 25 drones were shot down. This follows a successful interception rate for Ukraine in recent days. Jonathan is concerned that on this occasion, 10 drones got through, which is not good.
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Large Fire at St Petersburg Airport
🎦 20:01-21:11⏩
Footage has emerged of a large fire at St Petersburg Airport. The fire broke out in an industrial zone, at a warehouse close to the airport. Jonathan speculates whether this could have been a strike, adding that the airport had to be closed.
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Warehouse Fire in Moscow Suburb
🎦 20:41-21:31⏩
A warehouse containing building materials has caught fire in Rodniki in the Moscow region. No injuries have been reported. Russian officials claim that the fire was caused by an unextinguished cigarette.
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Footage of Naval Drones That Struck the Sergey Kotov
🎦 21:31-22:52⏩
Footage has emerged of the four Ukrainian naval drones that were used to strike and sink the Russian ship Sergey Kotov on 5th March. The drones were filmed by the crew of the Russian cargo ship Ella, 136km off the coast of Crimea. Jonathan makes the following points:
- Russian ships have been ordered to stay closer to Turkey and away from Crimea.
- The naval drones travelled at least 700km to reach their target.
- It's likely that the Russians will co-opt civilian vessels in future, to act as an early warning system.
Russian Instructor Describes Difficulties of Offensive West of Avdiivka
🎦 22:52-28:19⏩
Jonathan reports on a Russian military instructor's description of the difficulties experienced by Russian forces on the offensive west of Avdiivka. This ties in with the footage shared earlier in the video. He shares an extract (with some edits) of the instructor's comments: "As for the Olivka-Tonjenka section, the picture here is also never good, despite the steady progress. As an illustration, I will provide evidence from the operational direction Severny. So that's a little village just north of Opitnye and Vodianie that had been taken before you get to Tonyenka. So in direction of Severny-Tonyenka as of the first days of March, I think this will be much clearer than general words about the degradation of the culture of staff work, poor training of command staff, poor organisation and security and lack of proper coordination and interaction. So I quote with some editing. So this is already pretty stinging. Yesterday I returned from Savigny. We were providing at least some comms for the unit. I can say that our offensive is completely effed up. All the basements are occupied. People are sitting like rats. There are many units and not only is there no interaction between them, they often don't even understand who is sitting in 100 meters away from them. The surveillance systems works well for one group out of five. I look for my unit for almost an hour. No one knows anything. You stupidly walk around a destroyed village and yell for your own people hoping that they will hear. It's such a mess here. And at the same time, everyone is driven into Tonyankin small groups. Why? What for? How to that they will hear. It's such a mess here. And at the same time, everyone is driven into Tony Enki in small groups. Why? What for? How to interact? Hell no. They stupidly drive people in just to report. People are streaming towards Tony Enki, sometimes under fire. The rare people who go back say there is nothing to do there. People are like sardines in a barrel. All the basements and dugouts are occupied, they tell me directly on the radio. Just indicate that you are there, there will be a check, after which you will roll back. This is all purely for reporting that such and such units participated in the capture. So this seems that units are driven there, get holed up in some basements, then they can report that we were there, and then they come back at some point. Just so that unit can say, yep, we were in tonyanko and we we helped take it or whatever the second task after comms was to find and pick up our dead the boys died stupidly they the dismount point was indicated too close to the enemy they immediately fell under mortars and were scattered all because the task from above was put down like this go here is a point on a map you'll figure it it out for yourself. I'm not complaining. There were our problems there too. There's no point in taking our word for it and going in without reconnaissance. But the problem is that they force people to move out without even giving them time to organise the movement. Like, you have three hours, do it. It is even necessary to somehow further explain how such organisation of the process affects the excessiveness of the cost of these very movements what else would i like to note the enemy is now most obviously fighting for recognizable names of specific locations and this is in itself is quite good since it always us allow it allows us to grind him and not just be grand ourselves meanwhile the enemy's line of defense based on the terrain even if insufficiently equipped and fortified can still play a role. Here the terrain favourable to defence is not limited to water barriers. I've talked to you about that river that goes down with some lakes and higher ground the other side. Those same named locations will primarily become reference points for official reports and media messages. Secondly these locations have basements that provide shelter but these locations are located in our beloved southern and inescapable lowlands. In general, the capture of the entire Berdiches, Semyonovka, Olivka, Tonjenka fits into the logic of the development of the offensive, but this is still an intermediate stage. It's very important not to get stuck in this stage with unit numbers instead of units. And with such an organisation of the offensive, this is never an impossible prospect. I don't really know what's going on there. Will it be possible to take the adjacent heights to the west after these locations or will our infantry sit sadly in the basements? Basements of course are more reliable than holes in the ground but hanging in the lowlands by definition puts troops in a disadvantaged and vulnerable position. If you still manage to reach the heights and gain a foothold on them, will the group have any strength left for further active actions? In the worst case scenario, a group can generally be grounded in these same locations with names and then hit from the heights to no avail. Cheerful reports about minimal losses may, of course, please the royal ear, but words cannot replace people and equipment on earth. And you can't take Ocheritne as a report. By the way, I don't quite understand why Olivka and Tonjenko were the priority for the group advancing in the zone the prospects there are bleak in the current context but Dici looks more interesting which is interesting that's exactly what I said that's up the north come around behind the river and you can get there anyway if you remember the mapping I just think this is really interesting and and although the Russians are taking ground you know know, it comes at quite a cost. And it seems to be, they, it's very confused and ineffective. And, you know, comms is an issue and they're not clearing stuff out first, necessarily, and all the problems we keep hearing."
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Two Russian T-90 Tanks Stuck in the Mud
🎦 28:20-29:26⏩
Jonathan shows footage of two Russian T-90 tanks that have become stuck in the mud. The tanks, thought to be T-90As (a less superior variant than the T90-M) had to be recovered. One of the tanks was particularly badly stuck.
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Ukraine Increasing Frontline Fortifications
🎦 29:26-30:47⏩
The UK Ministry of Defence reports that Ukraine has been increasing its fortifications along the front line. These include:
- "Dragon's Teeth" anti-tank defences
- Ditches
- Trenches
- Minefields
- Fortified defensive positions.
This will likely slow any Russian advance and increase losses.
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Budanov: Black Sea Activity in Preparation for Crimean Offensive
🎦 30:47-31:25⏩
Head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, has said that recent Ukrainian activity in the Black Sea is in preparation for an offensive in Crimea.
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Deep Fakes - Warning
🎦 31:26-32:21⏩
Jonathan warns viewers that deep fake videos are circulating on social media, made to look like BBC news reports. One example is a video alleging that Zelensky was paid $53 million in severance.
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20 Days in Mariupol Wins First Ukrainian Oscar
🎦 32:21-34:54⏩
The film 20 Days in Mariupol recently won an Oscar - the first in Ukrainian history. Jonathan shares footage of the acceptance speech by filmmaker Mstyslav Chernov.
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Jonathan's Documentary Recommendations
🎦 34:54-35:18⏩
Jonathan recommends three documentaries for viewers:
- 20 Days in Mariupol
- Winter on Fire (available free on YouTube)
- Active Measures (available on Amazon Prime)
Cyber Resistance Group Leaks Russian Documents
🎦 35:18-36:02⏩
The Ukrainian activist group "Cyber Resistance" has leaked Russian documents, including some signed by Putin himself. These documents are said to detail plans for the socio-political transformation of Russia. It is thought that the documents suggest that Russia is preparing for a world war and as a result there will be increased oppression within Russia itself.
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Wrap Up
🎦 36:02-36:29⏩
Jonathan ends the video and says he's off to try on his new t-shirts.
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