Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:07⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a "quick run through" of the front lines on the 27th February 2024. He reminds viewers that the key to the map markings is available on screen.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
General Frontline Summary
🎦 00:07-01:09⏩
Jonathan notes that the Northeast is relatively stable for the second day running, thanking JR for the map updates. He mentions an unverified rumour, contested by pro-Russian source Fighterbomber, that a second Su-34 has been shot down, potentially the 9th or 10th in 10 days, in addition to an A50 Radar plane.
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Bakhmut Front
🎦 01:09-01:39⏩
Jonathan highlights small Russian advances into the Eastern outskirts of Ivankiske, noting Ukrainian efforts to hold a buffer zone between Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut.
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Avdiivka Front - Stepova, Berdychi, Vodianne
🎦 01:39-03:26⏩
Jonathan focuses on the Avdiivka front, where Russia is making gains in Stepova, North of the coke plant, pushing through the village into Berdychi. He observes advances along the front from Vodianne in the North, past Lastochkyne up to Opytne, noting Russian advances on Tonenky and Opytne confirmed by multiple sources. He cites Ukrainian confirmation of withdrawals from Severne and Stepove.
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Avdiivka Front - Topographical Analysis
🎦 03:26-07:36⏩
Jonathan analyses the topography of the Avdiivka front, highlighting the Russian advance West through Severne, Tonenky, Opytne, Lastochkyne and Stepova. He believes Ukrainian forces may be ceding ground in a fighting withdrawal to higher ground to the West, noting the open terrain would make this easier. The higher ground is bounded by a series of watercourses, which will likely form a natural defensive line. Ukrainian forces will want to hold this high ground, using artillery and mortars on Russian forces advancing through the water features below. He suggests the most likely Russian axis of advance is North along the railway line past Novobakhmutivka, as this would allow them to outflank the Ukrainians and attack from the high ground. He illustrates this on the map, drawing the likely Ukrainian defensive line along the ridgeline and water features, and the potential Russian axis of advance along the railway line.
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Avdiivka Front - Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka
🎦 07:36-09:32⏩
Jonathan notes Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a fighting withdrawal south of Avdiivka to the higher ground. He expresses concern at Russian advances in the fields around the mine south of Krasnohorivka, which could allow them to partially encircle the settlement. He reiterates the importance of Novoselivka 2, a small hamlet, in preventing the encirclement of Pervomaiske and in protecting Krasnohorivka from the North, and highlights the strategic importance of the Ukrainian loss of Pobieda in recent weeks. He observes there have been no Russian gains around Novomykhailivka, despite reports of heavy Russian losses. He displays an image showing the purported destruction of around 25 Russian tanks and IFVs during an assault on the settlement from the West and South. He notes that this image is unverified. He ends by observing that, encouragingly for Ukraine, there are no changes reported from the Velyka Novosilka or Robotyne areas.
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Krynky
🎦 09:32-10:35⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Krynky, where Russian forces are reported to have taken control, although some fighting continues. He notes that Russian forces were geolocated in the area a few days prior but were repelled, speculating that Ukrainian forces may be deliberately drawing Russian forces in to inflict attrition. He notes that this is a challenging area for the single remaining Ukrainian brigade deployed there (down from 4 originally). He speculates that the Ukrainian plan may be to fix and attrite Russian forces in this area.
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Wrap Up
🎦 10:35-11:14⏩
Jonathan concludes his frontline update, apologising for the shorter video but promising additional content. He encourages viewers to watch his second video of the day, "World War Three? Are we inching towards World War Three?", which he believes is a significant analysis of comments made at the Munich Security Conference luncheon. He thanks viewers for watching, asking them to like, subscribe, and share. He signs off and wishes viewers well.
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"It is just a bit of a rough end of the stick if you're one of the Ukrainian troops sent to Krynky because you're on a hiding to nothing"
