Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"If you're a journalist, if you purport to be a journalist, do some work mate. Do some work. Find out what's actually happened and look at the arguments for and against Russia and Ukraine doing this. You are doing the Kremlin's bidding here."
Hello Team!
Jonathan has a live chat scheduled for 12pm UK time today and another one next Tuesday evening with Georgie from Ukraine Matters. He mentions loving tea before starting the update.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Figures on Russian Losses
The latest figures from the Ukraine General Staff show 730 liquidated Russian personnel, 18 tanks, 16 APVs, 28 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 3 anti-aircraft warfare systems, 15 drones, 35 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 8 pieces of special equipment. Jonathan notes these are significant losses, especially the 18 tanks, if accurate. Ukraine appears to be doing a phenomenal job taking out Russian artillery. However, Ukraine will also be losing equipment as they go on the attack.
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Ukrainian Losses and Minefields
Footage shows a Ukrainian mechanized unit coming under fire and losing around 4 vehicles, possibly to a minefield, in southern Donetsk. Claims of 11 vehicles lost seem exaggerated based on later footage. Jonathan emphasizes that minefields will be a huge challenge for Ukraine's counteroffensive, even with de-mining equipment, as it won't always be used for probing/recon attacks. However, losses are expected when attacking fortified defenses.
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Russian Losses of High-Value Equipment
A montage video shows Ukrainian forces destroying significant Russian equipment with loitering munitions, including 2 Pantsir S1 air defense systems, an R330Z8Z electronic warfare station, a Podler S-band radar, and 3 Kastor 2E2 radars. Taking out Russian air defense and radar capabilities is ideal before Ukraine's counterattack to enable their air force to operate with less hindrance.
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Disinformation on Losses
Jonathan cautions about disinformation regarding losses on social media. Examples include Russia claiming to destroy a Leopard 2A4 tank which was actually a photoshopped image of a burning Russian tank, and using old footage from July 2022 to claim new Ukrainian tank losses. Verification is important.
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Strikes and Fighting Along the Frontline
- Belgorod is still being hit after the Russian Volunteer Corps pulled out of Novaya Tavolzhanka.
- Ukraine used JDAM bombs fitted with guidance kits to hit a tank repair base 20km from the frontline.
- Strikes reported all along the front from Belgorod to Tokmak and Melitopol. Luhansk heavily hit this morning, likely with Storm Shadow missiles, causing significant fires.
- Heavy fighting reported in southern Zaporizhzhia near Orikhiv and Velyka Novosilka with Ukrainian advances. Russian sources describe a "hard night" and "very dramatic" situation.
- North of Bakhmut near Blahodatne, a Russian unit reports having no communication, command, artillery support, food, water or evacuation, with their own Grad MLRS shelling them.
- Ukrainian forces advancing around Bakhmut and may soon encircle the city according to some analysts.
Kakhovka Dam Destruction and Aftermath
- Russian state TV having trouble keeping story straight about the dam explosion, with contradictory claims of Ukraine destroying it vs it benefiting Russia. Hosts struggle to reconcile official line with expert saying explosives had to be planted inside.
- 600 sq km of Kherson flooded, 68% on Russian-occupied east bank. Almost 2000 civilians evacuated so far on Ukrainian-controlled west bank despite constant Russian shelling.
- Oleshky and other towns on east bank completely submerged with hundreds trapped. Russia doing little to evacuate while preventing rescues. Ukraine trying to reach people by boat at great risk.
- Massive fish kill of 850kg of fish, over 7 million hryvnia in damage to fishing industry. Nuclear plant still ok if water level stays above 12.7m (currently 14m).
- Animals suffering greatly, especially pets and zoo animals. Human deaths expected to rise as more areas surveyed. Catastrophic environmental and human tragedy.
Military Aid to Ukraine
- Poland giving Ukraine 22 AW101 Merlin transport helicopters and 8 new anti-submarine warfare helicopters.
- Ukraine and Netherlands pressuring Spain to supply Patriot air defense battery currently deployed in Turkey, but needs Turkish agreement to transfer before end of 2023.
Tucker Carlson's Pro-Kremlin Rant
Tucker Carlson, recently fired from Fox News, launched a new show on Twitter promoted by Elon Musk. In his first episode, Carlson went on a pro-Russia rant attacking Ukraine's Jewish President Zelensky with antisemitic tropes, calling him "rat-like", "a persecutor of Christians" and "in bed with American bankers". He claimed without evidence that Ukraine was obviously responsible for destroying the Kakhovka dam. Jonathan expresses fury at Carlson's propaganda, surpassing even Russian media, and lack of journalistic integrity in failing to examine the facts about the dam destruction. He says Carlson is doing the Kremlin's bidding and has gone off the deep end with conspiracy theories.
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Ukraine's NATO Prospects
Former NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen says Ukraine needs to be given a clear path to NATO membership and security guarantees before the upcoming summit in Vilnius. However, Hungary opposes Ukraine ever joining NATO. Turkey's stance is unclear but may not block Ukraine after allowing Sweden and Finland to join recently. The issue remains complex with prickly political obstacles.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan asks viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. He plugs his upcoming live chats with Tim White today and Georgie from Ukraine Matters next week. His videos may be slightly delayed as his partner is working from home. He appreciates everyone's support and will be back with more updates soon.
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