Ukr War Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Dust Settling on Operation Web
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:21⏩
Jonathan welcomed the team to another ATP Geopolitics update, apologising for the video being late due to technical issues during recording. He self-deprecatingly described himself as a "muppet" for the error.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Russian Losses
🎦 00:21-01:27⏩
Jonathan reported the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, noting:
- 1,140 personnel lost.
- 2 tanks (very low).
- 7 troop-carrying AFVs (low).
- 48 artillery systems (over double the daily average).
- 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems.
- 137 vehicles and fuel tanks (ticking up).
- 2 pieces of special equipment.
He highlighted a significant number of drones lost, linking it to the world-record-breaking drone attack two nights prior (472 drones, 385 taken out). The reporting cutoff meant these figures included part of that massive wave and part of last night's wave.
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Dnipropetrovsk Training Ground Strike & Commander Drapatyi's Resignation Offer
🎦 01:27-05:38⏩
Following a Russian missile strike on a training ground in Dnipropetrovsk, which Ukraine admitted happened, 12 soldiers died despite air raid sirens sounding and most being in shelters. Jonathan described it as a "horrific moment" and lamented that Ukraine hadn't learned from previous similar incidents.
- Mykhailo Drapatyi, Commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces, offered his resignation, stating it was a "conscious step dictated by my personal sense of responsibility for the tragedy" at the 239th training ground.
- Drapatyi's statement emphasised commanders' ultimate responsibility, the need to eradicate "circular responsibility and impunity," and the importance of learning from mistakes. He expressed condolences to the families and confirmed an investigation into the circumstances, actions of commanders, shelter conditions, and warning systems.
- Jonathan praised Drapatyi's honourable rhetoric and accountability, noting that analyst Michael Kofman expressed regret if the resignation were accepted, as Drapatyi is considered "one of the best commanders in the AFU." President Zelensky has summoned Drapatyi to discuss the matter.
Russian UAZ-452 "Bukankas" Collision and Characteristics
🎦 05:39-07:06⏩
Due to the ongoing drone strikes on air bases and Istanbul 2.0 talks, there was little new video footage. Jonathan shared a clip of two Russian UAZ-452 vans, affectionately called "Bukankas" or "Scooby-Doo vans," colliding while trying to outrun each other on a road.
- Despite their simple appearance and unarmoured nature, making them inadequate for frontline use, Jonathan noted that these vehicles are generally respected for their four-wheel drive capability, robustness, and adaptability, having been around for decades.
Overnight Russian Drone & Missile Strikes on Ukraine
🎦 07:07-10:26⏩
Jonathan detailed Russian overnight strikes on Ukraine:
- 80 drones were launched, a significant reduction from the previous record-breaking 472.
- 52 were taken out (15 shot down, 37 suppressed by electronic warfare or lost).
- 28 drones still got through, a high interception failure rate (over a third).
- 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 1 Iskander-K cruise missile were launched, with all of them getting through Ukrainian air defence.
- Anton Gerashchenko reported strikes in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv regions. In Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk, a local unit of the State Emergency Service was attacked, damaging windows, walls, and a shelter entrance, injuring two civilians.
- A ballistic missile strike in Kharkiv's Kivsky district created a massive crater in the road. Jonathan preferred missiles hitting roads or fields over civilian or military installations, despite the significant kinetic and explosive power of these munitions.
- Shashank Joshi from The Economist noted that the scale of Russia's previous drone attack (472 Shahed-type drones) was largely overshadowed by Ukraine's counter-strikes on Russian air bases.
- Jonathan expressed his view that Ukraine's next top priority should be targeting Russian drone manufacturing facilities, especially since hydrocarbon and energy infrastructure is not currently being targeted.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Territory (Operation Web Pre-analysis)
🎦 10:26-13:49⏩
Ukraine conducted significant drone strikes into Russia:
- Over 160 Ukrainian drones were reportedly downed across 8 different Russian districts last night, according to Russian claims.
- Jonathan noted the difficulty in obtaining accurate battle damage assessment from within Russia.
- Targets included Borisoglebsk airport in Voronezh (which houses aviation repair plants and was previously hit in January) and an airport in Krasnodar Krai. Russian Telegram channels reported multiple cities and industrial facilities targeted.
- Crimea was also attacked, including Yevpatoria, by drones. There were unconfirmed claims of Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) targeting Russian assets last night.
- FIRMS data picked up a fire at the Russian military airfield in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai, near a newly built hangar, though the cause (strike, accident, or sabotage) was unconfirmed.
Operation Web: Details, Impact, & Battle Damage Assessment
🎦 13:50-22:43⏩
Jonathan delved into the details and impact of "Operation Web" (Pavutina):
- Sviatoslav Hnizdovsky called it "one of the most sophisticated asymmetric operations in modern warfare," citing its engineering, complexity, and psychological architecture. Drones were launched from inside Russia, hidden in false-roofed wooden cabins on trucks, some allegedly waiting for weeks.
- There was a disturbing claim that Russian locals murdered a truck driver who was merely delivering a truck full of drones and was unaware of his cargo.
- The operation aimed to:
- Fracture the myth of strategic invulnerability: demonstrating that even Russia's symbolic long-range bombers could be hit by Ukrainian FPV drones.
- Invert the power dynamic: showing Ukrainian drones "nesting" inside Russia, making the battlefield "inside the wire." This led to extensive checks on trucks and traffic jams in areas like Irkutsk, impacting logistics and the economy.
- Introduce temporal dread: the long planning horizon (18 months) suggested more dormant traps, fostering panic about future attacks.
- Destabilise internal trust: questioning how many officials or supply chain personnel unknowingly facilitated the operation.
- Yurii Butusov, a Ukrainian war journalist, claimed 41 strategic and military transport aircraft were destroyed at four bases, although Jonathan considered this "optimistic" and noted that satellite images would be needed for confirmation.
- Some drones were auto-homing, while others appeared to be controlled remotely, possibly hijacking Russian telecommunication networks.
- SBU agents reportedly transported 150 small attack drones and 300 ammunition into Russia, with 116 successfully launched. One truck seemingly exploded prematurely at Ukrainka air base, preventing strikes there.
- The attack occurred during the day, catching Russians off guard as they expected night strikes by larger drones. The Olenya base was particularly successful, with drones accurately hitting refuelling tanks and aircraft burning.
- The SBU claimed 34% of Russia's strategic aviation cruise missile carriers (worth approximately $7 billion) were hit.
- Zelensky reportedly met with Malyuk, head of the SBU, following the operation.
- The US did not provide intelligence for Operation Web; Ukraine gathered all intel independently. This was a deliberate choice by Ukraine for operational security and to avoid being told "no" by allies.
- Footage from Belaya airfield confirmed an aircraft burning out, with a Russian serviceman claiming eight aircraft were destroyed at Belaya (four Tu-95s and four Tu-22s). At Olenya, four Tu-95s and an An-12 were hit, bringing the confirmed minimum to 13 aircraft. Andriy Kovalenko of the Ukraine Center for Countering Disinformation corroborated the 13 destroyed aircraft figure, with additional damage.
- There were claims of an A-50 early warning aircraft burning at Ivanovo base. An Azerbaijani source, with a "pinch of salt," claimed two A-50 AWACS aircraft were damaged during Operation Web, leaving only one functional A-50 for all of Russia, which would be "absolutely phenomenal" if true.
Operation Web: Confirmed BDA & Geopolitical Repercussions
🎦 22:43-27:56⏩
Further details emerged on the battle damage assessment (BDA) and wider impact of Operation Web:
- The claim of 34% of Russia's strategic aviation cruise missile carriers (worth $7 billion) being hit by Operation Web, as stated by the Security Service of Ukraine, is yet to be fully verified by satellite imagery.
- Confirmed BDA from satellite images and video include: 8 aircraft at Belaya (4 x Tu-95s, 4 x Tu-22Ms) and 5 aircraft at Olenya (4 x Tu-95s, 1 x An-12), totalling 13 aircraft definitively hit. This is considered a minimum, as footage from other bases might reveal more damage.
- The impact is a "really significant blow" to Russia's strategic aviation capabilities.
- The strikes caused heavy reputational losses for Russia, especially in light of the Istanbul peace meetings. Jonathan suggested that the sight of "smouldering fuselages and strategic aviation" would make Russia's envoy "more restrained in his belligerence" compared to previous talks.
Operation Web: Logistics, Detentions & NATO Implications
🎦 27:56-29:57⏩
The aftermath of Operation Web included:
- Russian bloggers geo-located imagery of the open-topped containers used for the drones to a warehouse in Chelyabinsk.
- Mash reported that the owners of this warehouse have since been detained.
- Jan Lipavský of Czechia suggested that the strikes would lead to a 30% reduction in Russian strategic aircraft violations of NATO airspace, highlighting that "having a strong, resilient and well-armed Ukraine as an ally is in our security interest."
- Jonathan emphatically agreed, stating the operation was a "boon for NATO" as it degraded Russia's ability to strike with cruise missiles from these carriers, reducing NATO's concerns.
Combating Disinformation & Dangerous Rhetoric
🎦 29:57-35:53⏩
Jonathan highlighted the ongoing battle against disinformation and dangerous rhetoric:
- He criticised Alex Jones for claiming "NATO has officially attacked Russia" and calling for "Trump to pull out of NATO," deeming it "dangerous rhetoric that does have purchase."
- He vehemently challenged Josiah Lippincott, a self-proclaimed MAGA "wingnut" and "regime critic," who insulted Ukraine supporters as "Ukranoid" and equated Operation Web strikes to "atomic bombings."
- Lippincott also argued that America has no duty to prevent bad things from occurring globally. Jonathan used his "Doris" analogy to dismantle this view: if one's neighbour (Doris) is being attacked, it is a "moral injustice" not to intervene if one can, especially if it's also in one's strategic interest. He argued that denying help to Ukraine, when it is being attacked by Russia, is a moral injustice and against strategic interests.
- Jonathan expressed "incandescent rage" at such "horrific stuff" being spread by influential Americans, considering it worse than when similar rhetoric comes from Russians like Alexander Dugin. He wished to "destroy him in an argument" and "flick him away into the next solar system."
Russian Media Suppression of Air Base Strike News
🎦 35:53-37:55⏩
Jonathan noted an interesting lack of attention from mainstream Russian media regarding the air base strikes:
- Oliver Carroll observed that Russian media appeared to have been instructed to ignore Ukraine's successful strike on strategic bombers, instead leading with a train crash.
- This is not unusual for difficult news, but such a long delay suggests Putin might not want the public to know about it at all.
- Jonathan explained that Russia's efforts to create a closed information system, including internal intranets and VPN bans, aim to prevent its citizens from learning about such strikes unless they are tech-savvy enough to bypass restrictions.
Istanbul 2.0 Peace Talks & Diplomatic Manoeuvres
🎦 37:55-41:19⏩
Discussions turned to the Istanbul 2.0 peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, also involving the UK, Germany, and Italy:
- Ukraine's peace plan, released to Reuters, includes:
- Full and unconditional ceasefire.
- Return of all deported/forcibly displaced persons and POW exchange.
- International security guarantees.
- Right to pursue NATO and EU membership.
- No recognition of occupation since February 2014.
- Current frontline as a baseline for talks, with territorial issues discussed after a ceasefire.
- Gradual lifting of sanctions on Russia.
- Frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's recovery or reparations.
- Final peace terms decided at a leaders' summit.
- Jonathan found these terms reasonable but expected Russia to present "unrealistic proposals" that cross Ukraine's red lines.
- Ukrainian delegates had already met with German, Italian, and UK delegations to align their positions.
- President Zelensky expressed doubts about Russia's readiness for "constructive discussions," stating that his team was preparing regardless. He was in Vilnius for a Group of Nine meeting (which includes Hungary and Slovakia, now more aligned with Russia, complicating the group's unity), rather than participating directly in the Istanbul negotiations.
- Jonathan noted that Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had discussed the peace settlement without Ukraine, at Russia's request. Rubio reportedly reiterated Trump's call for direct talks. Jonathan criticised Rubio's apparent failure to understand that Lavrov does not seek peace but rather "assistance from the Trump camp in subduing Ukraine."
Russia Recruiting Ukrainians for Illegal Activities in Europe
🎦 41:19-42:24⏩
Ukrainian intelligence warned of Russia's recruitment of Ukrainians for "hostile operations in Europe," deeming it another tool of hybrid aggression.
- Jonathan explained that Russia achieves this by either finding pro-Russian Ukrainians, exploiting individuals' financial vulnerabilities, or blackmailing them.
- This strategy is "quite clever" because if Ukrainians are arrested for destructive acts (like attempts to set fire to properties, as seen in Poland), it creates a "distaste about Ukrainians" in the host countries, serving as a PR win for Russia by fostering distrust.
Russian Court Prohibits Anti-Putin & Anti-War Memes
🎦 42:25-42:45⏩
Jonathan concluded this segment by reporting that a Russian court has prohibited memes comparing Putin with Hitler and condemning the war against Ukraine. He sarcastically noted this as an example of "freedom" in Russia, deriding Putin as a "poor little man" and a "loser."
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Wrap up
🎦 42:47-43:03⏩
Jonathan thanked viewers for watching the hits and losses update, reiterated his apology for the video's lateness due to his "muppetry," and promised to be "less muppetitious going forward." He signed off, wishing everyone well.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I understood all aspects of the tasks and transcript. The names and place names were mostly clear, and context helped with the few ambiguities.
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