Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, FPV Drone Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia will win in this special military operation and on all other battlefields. Yes, we will have to work hard until 2029 or 2030. But I can assure you that the outcome of this special military operation will be that the NATO bloc will cease to exist in the format in which it exists today. Most of those states who today are running after America like mutts will kneel down and swear an oath to Russia asking to be accepted into our coalition."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:07⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers, mentioning a substantial upcoming military aid video and highlighting the Senate's resounding approval of the aid bill, sending a strong message to Putin, Ukraine, and even Trump and MAGA Republicans.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff's Daily Report (Hits and Losses)
🎦 01:07-02:32⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's daily report, noting significant Russian losses, including 880 personnel, 43 artillery systems (potentially targeted by HIMARS), and various vehicles and equipment. He observes that 880 personnel losses would have been considered extremely high earlier in the war but have become more common.
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Andrew Perpetua's Visual Confirmed Losses (22-23 April 2024)
🎦 02:32-08:13⏩
Jonathan analyses two days' worth of visually confirmed losses from military analyst Andrew Perpetua.
- 22 April: A good day for Ukraine with a 2.5:1 to 3:1 loss ratio favoring Ukraine. Ukrainian losses include an Osa air defence system (damaged by a Lancet drone), a Polish-provided Krab self-propelled howitzer, T-64 tanks, BMPs, and Kozak-7 armored vehicles (now being produced in Ukraine). Russian losses include a Buk air defence system (destroyed), an electronic warfare system, a 240mm self-propelled mortar, tanks, BMPs, armored personnel carriers, trucks, civilian vehicles, and even golf carts.
- 23 April: The loss ratio is closer to 1.5:1, less favorable to Ukraine, though most Ukrainian losses are damaged, not destroyed, while Russia sees more complete destructions. Ukrainian losses consist primarily of tanks, BMPs, trucks, civilian vehicles, and unidentified vehicles (likely from a single Russian night vision drone attack). Russian losses include a Tunguska air defense system, command-and-control vehicles, a 9S32M1 radar system (potentially an S-400, possibly a decoy, hit by Ukrainian Gimlas missiles), surveillance and comms equipment, multiple launch rocket systems, T-72 and T-62 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, numerous trucks, ATVs, civilian vehicles, motorcycles, and quads.
Jonathan points out the increasing use of Lancet drones by Russia and the escalating loss of trucks, impacting Russian logistics.
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Analysis of First-Person View (FPV) Drone Usage (Daniel from Turchiny)
🎦 09:47-31:35⏩
Jonathan dives into an analysis of FPV drone usage in the war, based on work by Daniel from military analysis group Turchiny.
- Data and Trends: Jonathan highlights the use of verified, geolocated attacks from Telegram channels, acknowledging potential selection bias in available data. Despite this, trends over time offer valuable insights.
- Infantry Strikes: Charts show a surge in Ukrainian FPV drone strikes on infantry, outpacing Russian use. Jonathan suggests this is due to increased Ukrainian production and procurement. Conversely, a significant dip in Russian strikes might indicate fewer Ukrainian troops near the front lines, better Ukrainian defenses, or a decrease in Russian drone availability.
- Vehicle Strikes: Ukraine holds a significant advantage in FPV strikes on vehicles. Jonathan attributes this to Russia's heavier reliance on vehicles, which are more vulnerable to drone attacks. Ukrainian forces have adapted by keeping their vehicles further from the front line.
- BMP Losses: FPV drone activity is particularly intense around Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar, potentially indicating weaker Russian electronic warfare capabilities in these areas. There's a notable increase in visually confirmed losses of Russian BMPs (infantry fighting vehicles), aligning with data on FPV strikes.
- Attacks on Positions: Initially, Russians held an advantage in using FPV drones to attack Ukrainian positions (trenches, buildings, dugouts). However, Ukrainian forces adapted, now surpassing Russian use. This shift is likely due to Ukraine's need to compensate for artillery ammunition shortages. Jonathan believes drones offer a unique advantage in urban warfare, effectively targeting buildings.
- Technological Advancements: Ukrainians have effectively closed the gap in night vision technology, a previous Russian advantage. While thermal imaging equipment is expensive, Ukrainian volunteer groups like Wild Hornet are finding cost-effective solutions.
- Warhead Evolution: Ukraine leads in developing advanced armor-piercing ammunition for FPV drones, including EFP (explosively formed penetrator) shells. Data reveals a significant increase in damaged and destroyed Russian tanks and BMPs, suggesting increased effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drone warheads.
Jonathan concludes by praising the analysis, emphasizing its importance in understanding the evolving role of FPV drones and the changing dynamics of the conflict.
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Overnight Strikes and Developments
🎦 31:35-36:40⏩
Jonathan covers overnight strikes:
- Odesa: Intense missile and drone attacks, with emergency workers responding.
- Kharkiv: A Russian S-300 missile attack injured seven, damaged residential and office buildings, and disrupted gas pipelines and the power grid.
- Mariupol and Berdyansk: Explosions reported, potentially from Storm Shadow missiles or ATACMs. Berdyansk experienced four or five blasts, Mariupol ten or more.
- Novovedovka, Crimea: A large fire, possibly oil-related.
- Smolensk Region: Significant strikes on oil and energy facilities. Russia claims to have shot down eight drones overnight, including one in Smolensk.
- Belgorod: An explosion and large fire, potentially a grass fire.
- Kursk Region: Fire alarms activated.
- Lipetsk: Drone attack on a metallurgical plant, damaging oxygen units and potentially hindering military production.
Jonathan anticipates an escalation in drone strikes as Ukraine's domestic manufacturing capabilities increase and the arrival of longer-range weapons like ATACMs and Storm Shadow missiles.
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Radioactive Flooding Risk in Kurgan
🎦 36:40-37:25⏩
Jonathan highlights the risk of radioactive water contamination in Russia's Kurgan region due to flooding in old uranium mines. He criticizes Russia's inability to allocate sufficient resources to address this environmental disaster, as they are heavily invested in the war effort.
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Shoigu's Threats and Russian Corruption
🎦 37:25-40:40⏩
Jonathan discusses:
- Shoigu's Promise: Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu vows to increase attacks on Ukraine in response to US military aid approval, targeting logistics centers and weapon storage bases. Jonathan believes this is likely empty rhetoric unless Russia receives significantly more support from China.
- Corruption Arrest: Timur Ivanov, Russia's Deputy Defence Minister in charge of military housing, is arrested for bribery. The timing and Ivanov's potential enemies within the MOD raise questions about internal power struggles.
Chechen Leadership and Russian War Aims
🎦 40:40-41:44⏩
- Potential Kadyrov Successor: Apti Alaudinov, a close ally of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, has been appointed to the Russian Defence Ministry. Jonathan suggests he is a likely candidate to assume control of Chechnya if Kadyrov dies.
- Propaganda and War Aims: Alaudinov tells Russian propagandist Olga Skabeyeva that Russia intends to wage war for the rest of the decade with the goal of destroying NATO. He envisions NATO states submitting to Russia. Jonathan expresses frustration with such rhetoric, particularly given the support for Russia among some American politicians.
Valery Zaluzhny's UK Ambassadorship
🎦 41:44-42:11⏩
Jonathan reports that Valery Zaluzhny, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, is expected to begin his official duties as Ukrainian ambassador to the UK in the coming weeks, according to Mykhailo Podolyak.
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Russian Aviation Incident
🎦 42:11-42:32⏩
Highlighting the struggles of Russia's aviation industry, Jonathan describes an incident where an AN-24 Aero Airlines plane suffered two disintegrated landing wheel tires upon landing in Olekminsk, Russia. He expresses concern about the safety of Russian aircraft and the potential for future incidents.
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Wrap up
🎦 42:32-42:48⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, emphasizing the importance of understanding the evolving dynamics of FPV drone warfare. He hopes the analysis was interesting and useful.
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