Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
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"There is a momentum shift slightly in Russia's favor, but this could also be Ukraine knowing exactly what's going on and waiting out Russia to have the momentum switch in their favor, do an offensive, deal with that offensive, and then do their counteroffensive."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest Ukrainian numbers on Russian losses, with the usual caveats about accuracy and propaganda. 600 personnel were "liquidated", which may mean killed or seriously wounded and taken out of combat. 5 tanks, 12 APCs, 9 artillery pieces, 1 drone and 14 vehicles were also lost. The Oryx list added 33 pieces of Russian equipment losses.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Aid and Assistance
- Germany is providing a €1 billion aid package including 500 border protection vehicles, which are vital for logistics according to Trent Telenko.
- Italy will accept the 6th military aid package on Thursday, likely including SAMP/T air defense systems and possibly M109L self-propelled howitzers.
- RT France, a Russian propaganda channel, has been banned from broadcasting after "5 years of harassment" according to their spokesperson.
Frontline Update - Northeast
Fighting continues on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. The Russians have likely pulled out of Kuzmivka but are still shelling it. Geolocated footage shows fighting west of Svatove near Ploshchanka. Ukraine is putting pressure on Russia south of Kreminna in the forested area.
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Frontline Update - Bakhmut
The appearance of attacks on new villages like Yahidne and Blahodatne suggest Russian advances north of Soledar. Krasnopolivka is likely captured. In Bakhmut itself, the Russians have made incremental advances in the northeast and are fighting in the southern districts near Opytne. However, the Ukrainians still hold positions northwest of Klishchivka despite Russian claims. The ISW believes Ukraine's defense of Bakhmut is strategically sound despite the costs, as losing it easily would allow Russia to expand operations and force Ukraine into worse defensive positions. There are also political considerations to holding Ukrainian cities.
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Frontline Update - South
- Little change around Avdiivka other than ongoing fighting. A partly destroyed bridge at Pervomaisk was hit by Ukraine.
- In Marinka, Russian claims of controlling the western outskirts are unconfirmed. The situation remains as it has for a month.
- In Zaporizhzhia oblast near Orikhiv, there are conflicting claims. Russian sources assert major territorial gains but these lack evidence. Ukraine likely still holds most positions other than Lobkove and Novopokrovka. An offensive threatening Orikhiv would be very problematic for Ukraine.
Wrap Up
Jonathan notes that HIMARS are constantly working to attrit Russian forces by hitting troop concentrations. This is how Ukraine can degrade Russian capabilities to a tipping point, rather than fighting man-to-man. Longer range weapons would help with this. He concludes by thanking viewers for their support.
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