Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: UKR's Economy, Democracies, Putin as Dictator, & NATO Funding
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Table of Contents 📖
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"The upcoming Ukrainian offensive in my humble opinion will have elements of both what will be interesting is to see how the UAF have task organized that is placed different equipment and types of units in which areas of the front this is a hedge but there is potential for several approaches"
Ukraine's Economy
- Ukraine's GDP contracted 29.1% in 2022 due to the war
- Defence spending consumes 80% of all tax and non-tax revenues (compared to ~6% in the UK)
- Ukraine had a budget deficit of $25 billion in 2022 and relies heavily on international aid
- The war has caused $147.5 billion in infrastructure damage across sectors
- Recovery needs are estimated at $411-750 billion over the next 10-20 years
- Initiatives like the International Financial Ramstein aim to aid Ukraine's recovery
Democracies and Corruption
- EU member states tend to be less corrupt and more democratic due to entry requirements
- The Economist Democracy Index ranks countries by democratic values
- 8 of the top 9 countries are in Europe; Ukraine ranks 87th while Russia is 146th and considered authoritarian
- Jonathan argues Putin is definitely a dictator who has removed democratic mechanisms and checks and balances in Russia
NATO Funding
- Denmark will provide $2.6 billion to Ukraine and wants it to count towards their 2% of GDP NATO defence spending goal
- Some NATO countries have large armies but struggle to equip them while others are wealthy but have recruitment issues
- It's suggested that the 2% goal be mandatory and countries that can't spend it on their own military should fund equipment for allies instead
- This could boost European defence capabilities, solidarity and economies
Ukraine's Upcoming Counteroffensive
- Ukraine's offensive force is 35 combat brigades, 2 SF regiments, 1 air assault regiment, 52 rifle battalions plus combat support
- Another 86 brigades hold the rest of the front
- A recent "hush" video reflects Ukrainian confidence in contrast to increasing Russian chaos
- The offensive will be challenging against reinforced Russian defences but multiple potential approaches are outlined
- Extensive preparation, resupply and logistics planning is crucial
- Jonathan believes Ukraine will retake ground and continue to persevere
Other News
- Citizens of the Russian-backed Donetsk People's Republic are complaining they are not being paid promised compensation for war deaths and injuries
- The DNR admits it owes over $467 million; its economy is struggling and kept afloat by Russian funding
- Ukrainians have improvised a "Bangalore torpedo" to clear obstacles, made from stacked RPG-7 warheads which are plentiful as they aren't used much against tanks now
Wrap up
The next few weeks will be very busy as Ukraine's counteroffensive gets fully underway. Jonathan, who has multiple sclerosis, injured himself while gardening and jokes it's safer to make videos than be outside. He thanks his supporters on Buy Me a Coffee.
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