Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If you are not with Ukraine, you're with Russia. And if you're with Russia, you're with these voices. If you can't justify them, you are a moral monster."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:46⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the first Ukraine War Update of the day for 13th December 2023 and lets viewers know that there will be a live stream with Greg Terry from the Greg Terry Experience channel at about 1pm (GMT). He thanks James Cottle, who is a dedicated viewer and is now able to watch his videos at 1.75x speed (and jokes that he will be sending him a virtual certificate!). Jonathan also explains why he listens to most audio (podcasts, youtube videos etc.) at a faster speed (1.75-2x) and mentions this is partly due to the effects of Multiple Sclerosis on his speech.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Update: Russian Losses
🎦 02:46-05:46⏩
Jonathan reviews the General Staff update for Russian losses on 12/12/2023 noting that the figure of 850 personnel lost is lower than recent figures (which have been as high as 1300) but still a good result for Ukraine. He notes that when Russia is on the offensive, they lose more troops, they are currently making small territorial gains but this is coming at a high cost. Jonathan reviews the equipment losses noting that 18 tanks and 15 APCs destroyed in a day is a high number. The number of artillery pieces lost is lower and it's unclear whether this is significant or not. He speculates that this could be because Ukrainian forces are focussing on the tanks and APCs that are being used in combined arms manoeuvres rather than targeting the artillery further back or it could be an indication that Russia has fewer artillery pieces to use.
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Oryx Update: Russian and Ukrainian Losses
🎦 05:46-07:13⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest visually confirmed losses from Oryx (compiled by Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans) noting the 2:1 ratio for Russian to Ukrainian losses which although not as high as it could be, is still positive for Ukraine. He reviews the equipment types and notes that Russia is still losing large quantities of equipment on a daily basis.
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US Intelligence Estimate: Russian Casualties
🎦 07:13-09:25⏩
Jonathan discusses recently declassified US intelligence suggesting that Russia has suffered 315,000 casualties (killed and wounded). Given that Russia invaded Ukraine with approximately 360,000 personnel, this equates to 87% of the invasion force. The report states that the invasion has set Russia back 18 years in terms of modernisation and this is why Jonathan believes that Russia would be unable to achieve anything else militarily after this war even if they were to prevail. In terms of equipment, the report assesses that Russia has lost 2,200 tanks out of an initial force of 3,100 and have had to resort to using T-62s (from the 1970s). Jonathan notes that Ukraine treats casualty figures as a state secret as this could harm the war effort. The New York Times has previously reported the figure to be closer to 70,000.
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US Intelligence Estimate: Russian Casualties in Avdiivka
🎦 09:25-11:08⏩
Jonathan continues his discussion on the declassified US Intelligence report. This estimates that Russia has suffered 13,000 casualties and lost 220 combat vehicles in the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka area. Jonathan clarifies that the figure of 220 is probably the minimum number as this is based on visually confirmed losses and he has seen reports of the number being as high as 330.
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Russian Losses in Avdiivka
🎦 11:08-12:51⏩
Jonathan refers to a tweet from Twitter user Tendar which states that Russian losses around Avdiivka have exceeded the number lost in Vuhledar a few weeks ago. The tweet notes there have been no gains for Russian forces in the area and that the area is the "single largest contributor to progressing Russia's demographic catastrophe". Jonathan agrees with this assessment noting that it's likely that Russian casualties in Avdiivka could account for half of their daily losses. Tatarigami, a military and defence analytics site, has updated their documentation on Russian losses in the area and the figure now stands at over 200 visually confirmed losses (up from 109). Jonathan cautions that there are areas where Ukraine is suffering high casualties and refers to reports that Snihurivka is being heavily shelled by Russian forces. He also states that the area North of Bakhmut is difficult for the Ukrainians and that they have been forced to operationally withdraw.
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BTR-90 Prototype Destroyed: Evidence of Russian Equipment Shortages
🎦 12:51-15:38⏩
Jonathan discusses the destruction of a BTR-90 prototype in Ukraine. He had previously speculated that Russia might be so short of equipment that they were deploying prototypes but a number of viewers had disputed this. He reads out a comment from a user "Robert" who points out that the BTR-90 has not been in production since 2015 and that Russia favoured the cheaper and technically superior BTR-82A. He concludes that the presence of a prototype on the battlefield is further evidence that Russia is running desperately short of equipment. He points out that if Russia was testing equipment they would be deploying the VPK-7829 Boomerang or the Kurganets-25 IFV.
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Four Upgraded T-72B3M (obr 2022) Tanks Destroyed: Further evidence of equipment shortages?
🎦 15:38-17:35⏩
Jonathan highlights footage showing that four upgraded Russian T-72B3M tanks (2022 variant) have been destroyed. These tanks have been upgraded from existing T-72 tanks. The fact that these 2022 variants are now being destroyed could be an indication that Russia is running out of refurbished tanks. Jonathan compares this to the lack of BMP-1s being destroyed these days as most of these appear to have been attrited. Jonathan reasons that as Russia is having to rebuild tanks from scratch (due to running out of working tanks) they are choosing to rebuild the better ones (T-72s, BMP-2s and BMP-3s).
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HIMARS Strike on Russian Supercam UAV Team: High Value Target?
🎦 17:35-19:00⏩
Jonathan discusses footage which appears to show a HIMARS strike on a Russian Supercam UAV team. The footage shows a civilian 4x4 vehicle, presumably with a team operating a Supercam drone. Jonathan questions whether this is a good use of a HIMARS missile but then concludes that it is as the drone would be able to provide targeting information for other Russian systems (artillery, missiles etc.) or it could be used to direct strikes on high value targets such as Ukrainian aircraft. It is also highly likely that the drone operating team was also killed in the strike.
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Small Scale Missile and Drone Attack Overnight - 10/10 Ballistic Missiles and 10/10 Drones Intercepted
🎦 19:00-19:53⏩
Jonathan reports that there was a small-scale missile and drone attack overnight. 10 out of 10 ballistic missiles were intercepted as well as 10 out of 10 drones. He questions why Russia hasn't launched a large-scale attack yet. If their intention was to cripple the energy infrastructure, they would have launched this by now to maximise the effects of winter. He wonders if Russia is waiting for an opportunity to launch a large saturation attack.
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Russian Ballistic Missile Attack on Kyiv
🎦 19:53-23:08⏩
Jonathan believes that the ballistic missiles were used in the attack on Kyiv and that this is why the interception rate was 100% as Kyiv is the best defended city. He notes that Russia fired 10 ballistic missiles at Kyiv, injuring 53 people, including 6 children. He quotes Kyiv Mayor, Vitali Klitschko, confirming this. He goes on to describe how missile debris from intercepted missiles landed in the Dniprovsky district of Kyiv, damaging buildings, setting fire to cars. 17 people were rescued, including 7 children. Jonathan condemns Russia for this attack and their justifications for their actions. He points out that even if Russia is targeting legitimate targets, the fact that these are situated in a capital city means that civilian casualties are inevitable, especially if missiles are being intercepted and the debris falls on residential areas. He uses a humorous analogy of a neighbour throwing stones at pigeons on his roof - it's no defence to say that his neighbour should not have told him to stop throwing stones when he smashes all his windows. Jonathan concludes that Russia is morally responsible for its actions.
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Russian Drone Attack on Odessa
🎦 23:08-24:31⏩
Jonathan reports on an attack on the port of Chornomorsk in the Odessa region. He notes that two people were hospitalised and that there was a fire which was quickly extinguished. The port is situated on the Black Sea coast, near to Malonadolynske. Jonathan refers to a report by Tim White and states that 9 Shahed drones were shot down over Odessa that night but that debris from one of the drones had hit the municipal auto repair enterprise in the city. Debris from another drone had damaged a building in the port.
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Russian Cyber Attack on Kyivstar and Monobank
🎦 24:31-27:08⏩
Jonathan reports on a cyber attack by Russia on Ukraine's largest mobile phone operator, Kyivstar. This has had huge ramifications as it has disrupted mobile phone coverage, pay terminals, internet banking and other utilities. Kyivstar has over 24 million customers. Ukraine's largest bank, Monobank (7 million customers) was also affected. Kyivstar has confirmed that their IT infrastructure was partially destroyed in the attack and that it's unclear when full service will be resumed. Jonathan notes that the banking system was subjected to Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks. These attacks attempt to disrupt a server by flooding it with traffic from multiple sources and are commonly used to disrupt services and take websites offline. Jonathan notes that although banking, transit and utility services were disrupted, air raid warning systems were not affected as they don't use the Kyivstar network. This year alone, Ukraine has suffered 4,000 cyber attacks (most of which are attributed to Russia).
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Ukrainian Cyber Attack on Russian Tax Service
🎦 27:08-29:35⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has retaliated to the cyber attack on their infrastructure by launching their own attack on Russia's tax service. This attack has crippled Russia's tax system by infecting their servers with malware. The attack has paralysed communications between Moscow and 2,300 regional tax offices and a tax data centre. The Ukrainian HUR (intelligence directorate) claim that they were able to destroy the infrastructure, wipe the tax database and backup copies. They also claim to now have access to Russia's entire nationwide tax data traffic. Experts estimate that it will take at least a month to restore the tax service (if it's even possible). Jonathan notes that this is significant as Russia needs to be able to collect taxes to fund the war and that a month-long disruption to this will have serious consequences. He believes that the Russian attacks on Ukraine are a direct retaliation to this.
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Julia Davis "10 Minutes of Hate" - Russian Justification for Genocide
🎦 29:35-32:16⏩
Jonathan highlights a video compilation by Julia Davis titled "10 minutes of hate". This video features clips from Russian politicians and propagandists who attempt to justify their invasion and genocide of Ukrainians by making unsubstantiated claims that a proportion of Ukrainians need to be eliminated as they will not accept Russian dominance. Jonathan urges viewers to share this video on social media to highlight the reality of the situation and counter the narratives being propagated by pro-Russian accounts and voices. He believes that by doing so, these narratives can be challenged and that those who are unable to morally justify Russia's actions are as morally culpable as those perpetrating these atrocities.
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Russian Aeroflot Plane Suffers 15th Breakdown This Month
🎦 32:16-33:13⏩
Jonathan finishes by reporting on an Aeroflot flight that was unable to fly from Krasnoyarsk to Phuket due to technical difficulties. 387 passengers were stranded for 13 hours. He jokes that this is the 15th breakdown of a Russian civilian aircraft this month and that Thailand and Turkey are popular destinations for Russians. He sarcastically notes that North Korea would also be a great holiday destination.
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Wrap Up
🎦 33:13-33:19⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share his content.
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