Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
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"This entire war is about Crimea. Crimea offers for Russia a deep sea warm water port which means it doesn't freeze over...If Russia are having to effectively give up on Sevastopol to at least some significant degree right now, and the Ukrainians aren't really, you know, they're yet to get properly going on this counter-offensive...then you're wondering whether Russia can derive any real benefit in a sustained and ongoing way from Crimea."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses the significance of Russia shifting its Black Sea fleet logistics centers from Sevastopol in occupied Crimea to Novorossiysk in mainland Russia. He notes this is a major development as Crimea and its warm water port is a key reason for the war. If Russia is struggling to maintain its presence in Sevastopol even before Ukraine's counter-offensive has fully begun, it raises questions about Russia's ability to benefit from holding Crimea long-term.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Belgorod Region
Pro-Ukrainian Russian troops are still operating in the Russian border region of Belgorod, controlling settlements like Novaya Tavolzhanka despite Russian claims they have been repelled. The Russians seem unable to dislodge these forces which is causing friction and embarrassment.
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Northeastern Sector - Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna
- Russian attacks were repelled near Novoselivka and Kuzmivka.
- Claims of Russian advances near Novomilinske are unconfirmed.
- The pace of Russian attacks seems to be decreasing in this area.
Bakhmut Area
- Ukrainian forces made limited advances north and southwest of Bakhmut, progressing 200-1600m in some areas.
- Wagner financier Prigozhin claimed Ukraine captured part of Berkhivka and criticized the Russian command.
- Heavy fighting continues on Bakhmut's flanks which the DPR head admitted is "very difficult".
- Ukrainian artillery is reportedly hammering Russian positions and reducing their morale.
- Prigozhin warned Bakhmut could be lost in 45 days at this rate. Ukraine claims a 7.5:1 loss ratio in Russia's disfavor around Bakhmut.
Avdiivka-Donetsk Front
Russian attacks were repelled near Nevelske and Marinka. There are unconfirmed claims Ukraine entered Pobeda south of Marinka before being pushed back. Some gains by Ukraine were shown near Nevelske. Heavy fighting continues in this area.
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Southwest Donetsk - Velyka Novosilka Area
- This area is seeing the most counter-attack activity from Ukraine currently.
- Ukraine advanced 5-6km initially, taking Neskuchne and Novodonetsk before Russia recaptured them.
- Fighting is ongoing as Ukraine probes the Russian lines from multiple directions, likely seeking to exploit weaknesses in this sector.
- Reporting is mixed, mostly coming from Russian sources which should be viewed skeptically. Mapping is very dynamic.
Kherson-Dnipro River
The Kakhovka dam along the Dnipro River was destroyed, causing major flooding, ecological disaster and complicating Ukraine's ability to conduct offensive operations in the area. Jonathan believes this was a Russian action to hinder Ukraine's counter-offensive, though Russia blames Ukraine. The situation remains fluid with many unanswered questions.
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Wrap Up
The dam breach in Kherson is dominating the news cycle but important developments continue along the front lines. Jonathan will continue to monitor and analyze the dynamic situation. He appreciates listener support during these trying times.
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