Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 2 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"War is young men dying and old men talking."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the channel for the second part of his Ukraine War Update for the 5th May 2024 and warns viewers that he's off out for most of the day so won't be online as much. He's going to get straight into "hits and losses" as there's not an awful lot of news to report today.
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Ukraine General Staff Daily Statistics
🎦 00:29-02:21⏩
Jonathan shares the daily statistics reported by the Ukrainian General Staff for the previous day (all the usual caveats apply - the figures can be found in the video description). Overall, Russian losses are down with 860 personnel losses (400 lower than the previous day), 9 tanks, 18 armoured vehicles, 21 artillery systems (much lower than recent days). Jonathan hypothesises that these lower figures could be attributed to a weekend effect (where statistics gathering is affected - but not always, so he's not sure), that the Russians are grinding down to a slower pace due to the loss of equipment (although this could just be a one-off as we've only seen one day's data so far), or that Ukrainian forces have not had a "big hit" on Russian troop accumulations in recent days such as the ATACMS hit on the training camp in Luhansk which took out 100 soldiers.
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Oryx Daily Statistics
🎦 02:21-07:51⏩
Jonathan shares the latest statistics from Oryx (who compiles visually confirmed losses based on open source intelligence - the figures are a minimum as not all losses can be verified). He notes that the losses are "pretty much at parity" which is not good news for the Ukrainians who need a 3:1 loss ratio in their favour or better. Ignoring the two unknowns (where it is unclear whether the equipment is Ukrainian or Russian), he highlights the following Ukrainian losses:
- Surveillance and comms equipment including an antenna.
- Several artillery pieces (M109, M777, DANA, FH17) - Jonathan believes most of these were damaged rather than destroyed, predominantly by Lancet loitering munitions.
- Jonathan digresses, explaining that it can be difficult to determine from drone footage the extent of damage sustained to artillery pieces (tow-it howitzers are less likely to explode when hit by a loitering munition unlike self-propelled guns which keep ammunition on board).
- One M1 Abrams, taken out by a Krasnopol - a laser guided precision munition.
- T-80, T-72, T-64 tanks.
- A Marder infantry fighting vehicle.
- A Bradley fighting vehicle (destroyed).
Russian losses included:
- Comms equipment
- Self-propelled artillery pieces, including a 2S1 Gvozdika and a BM-21 multiple launch rocket system which was taken out by a GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System - such as HIMARS). A second BM-21 was damaged by a first-person view drone.
- Tanks including a T-90S (export version of the T-90). Jonathan comments that the appearance of export versions on the battlefield is revealing in itself as it indicates that the Russians need to use them as they need them more than they need to export them. The tank featured in the video also has mine-rollers on the front suggesting it was used as the lead tank in a column.
- Infantry fighting vehicles.
- Armoured personnel carriers.
- MRAPs.
- Trucks.
- Civilian vehicles.
Russian Boat Destroyed
🎦 07:51-08:59⏩
Jonathan introduces footage of a moving Russian boat (the link to the video can be found in the video description). Although he is unable to show it, he describes the scene. The boat is travelling at speed when it appears to hit a mine and explodes, throwing its occupants into the air. Jonathan speculates that the boat was travelling too fast to be hit by artillery, although the size of the explosion appears consistent with artillery. He suggests it could be a fluke, that the drone filming the boat was spotting for another target or that it was a mine. He asks his viewers to share their opinions. Jonathan ends this section with a reminder that the people in the boat were human beings.
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Tribute to "Vovan"
🎦 08:59-10:53⏩
Jonathan shares the sad news that Jamie Roberts, responsible for the recent BBC documentary about the war in Ukraine "Ukraine Enemy in the Woods", has been killed alongside five comrades in a Russian tank attack. The documentary features "Vovan", a Ukrainian soldier fighting in the forests near Sienkiwka. Jonathan encourages viewers to watch the documentary (available on BBC iPlayer in the UK), describing it as "extraordinarily good" in its depiction of life for the soldiers on the front line. Filmed almost entirely using bodycam footage, the documentary provides a unique perspective of the war. Jonathan shares some words about Roberts from an article reporting his death: >"A kind, genuine soul who cared deeply for his men. Rarely seen without a smile. He leaves behind a wife and two sons. Rest in peace, Vovan. Ukrainian forces are outnumbered and outgunned right now. If the West really want to make a difference, it is critical that they move lightning fast or deal with the consequences. Quote, war is young men dying and old men talking." Jonathan shares some of Roberts' own words about "Vovan" (taken from the article): > "Vovin was a steel worker from central Ukraine. He told me he wanted to repel the Russians and then rebuild his country. A brilliant man. If you haven't met him, please watch the film. It was down to him that we made it, he filmed most of it." Jonathan reflects on how sad Vovan's death is and how this is a familiar story for so many people; Ukrainians who were simply getting on with their lives until Russia forced this war upon them.
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Russian Su-25 Downed
🎦 10:53-12:23⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelensky announced that a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft had been shot down in Donetsk - the first aircraft to be shot down for a long time. This could mean that Stingers have arrived on the front line. Jonathan explains that some US equipment reached the Ukrainians within four days of Biden signing off the latest aid package. This equipment, such as Stingers, was already in place in Poland and Germany. It would be interesting to know if this Su-25 was taken down by a Stinger. Jonathan reflects on how a year ago, Ukrainian forces were equipped with Stingers and MANPADs - questioning why Russian aircraft are now able to operate with impunity over the front lines. Although it's possible the aircraft was destroyed by long-range air defence systems.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 12:23-13:39⏩
Jonathan reports that a sizable wave of 24 drones was sent to attack Ukraine overnight, 23 of which were shot down. The majority targeted Kharkiv, Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk. Despite the high interception rate, one drone hit infrastructure facilities in Dnipropetrovsk causing fires to break out. A high-rise building was also damaged. There were no reports of any Ukrainian strikes into Russia or Russian-occupied territories, although there were some reports yesterday that the Crimean Bridge was closed (possibly due to Ukrainian strikes).
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Explosion in Belgorod
🎦 13:39-15:00⏩
Jonathan reports on an explosion in Belgorod which is believed to be a result of a Russian KAB bomb going awry. This has happened before - both cruise missiles and KAB bombs landing in fields in Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and other Oblasts in Russia that border Ukraine. Jonathan explains that the higher probability of bombs landing in fields is due to the higher percentage of land covered by fields. The incident in Belgorod resulted in 5 people injured and damage to 30 private residential buildings.
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Future Ukrainian Counteroffensives
🎦 15:00-16:14⏩
Jonathan shares an article from the Financial Times which reported that Ukraine will launch a new counter-offensive in 2025 after receiving $61bn in US aid (although Jonathan points out that not all of this aid is military). He reads an excerpt from the article: >"Ukraine will look to mount a new counter-offensive in 2025 after receiving the 61 billion dollar US military aid really that should be the US aid package because it's not all military aid and I think that that presents a false sense of what that package is anyway to help it stop Russia from making additional gains this year Jake Sullivan the US, has said, quote, I will expect Russian advances in the coming period on the battlefield. And yeah, that's what we're seeing and what I've been talking about, despite the new US funding package approved last month, because you can't instantly flip the switch, he added." Jonathan shares his opinion that it's more likely the Ukrainians will be in a position to counter-attack in late 2024, or more likely 2025. He believes the Ukrainians should focus on attriting Russian forces using distance munitions whilst waiting for the delivery of new equipment, hoping that this will force the Russians to reconsider their offensive.
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Wrap up
🎦 16:14-17:49⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and lets them know he's off out now. He hopes to publish an update to his maps later today. He thanks those who have supported the channel including Grimsoft. Jonathan issues a reminder to his moderators to allow contrary opinions to be shared on the Discord channel if they are made in good faith. Those that are insulting, trollish or bad faith actors should be deleted. Jonathan thanks his moderators and members.
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