Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

This is a turning point in the war in terms of allied assistance. This is arguably, I think, bigger than S-16s.

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:12⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War Update NEWS video. He mentions that this is the second part for today, 27th May 2024 and that he has already uploaded a separate breaking news update video.

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France commits troops to Ukraine

🎦 00:12-01:57⏩

Jonathan announces that according to General Zaluzhnyi, France will be sending troops to Ukraine in a training capacity. The documents have already been signed and French instructors are expected to arrive in Ukraine shortly. Jonathan considers this a turning point in the war and states that this commitment is bigger than the provision of F-16 fighter jets and that it represents a "categorical difference" in allied assistance to Ukraine. Jonathan notes the significance of High Mars, main battle tanks and F16's but notes that these were all extensions of existing capability. The provision of troops is a step change in allied support. Jonathan speculates about how Russia might retaliate but concludes that short of nuclear weapons, Russia's options are limited.

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Spain announces $6.5bn military aid package

🎦 01:57-05:33⏩

Jonathan reports that Zelensky is in Spain for talks and that Ukraine will receive Patriot missiles and 19 Leopard 2A4 tanks. There's some uncertainty about the value of the total military aid package but it could be worth $6.5bn, of which $1.2bn is for the tanks and Patriot interceptors. Most of the funding will go to Spanish defence companies to procure equipment for Ukraine. Deliveries are expected to continue until 2025. Jonathan observes that Spain - as the fourth biggest economy in Europe - has been "behind the curve" in terms of its support for Ukraine.

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France provides update on military aid to Ukraine

🎦 05:33-07:21⏩

Further to the earlier announcement of troop commitments to Ukraine (topic 2), Jonathan reports that France will be providing additional Caesar howitzers and ammunition; AASM bombs (50 per month to a total of 600), SCALP cruise missiles and Asta missiles for the Samp T air defence system. He notes the effectiveness of AASM bombs which are difficult to jam and welcomes the provision of SCALP missiles.

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AASM, SCALP and Storm Shadow missile production

🎦 07:21-08:58⏩

Jonathan picks up on a comment from a viewer who suggests that France should scale up its production of AASM bombs. He agrees and highlights the need for increased production of Asta, SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles. He mentions a recent video from UK Defence Minister, Grant Shapps, where he announced that the UK would be sending more Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine but notes that the missiles in the video were likely already manufactured and that it was unclear whether production of these missiles would be increased.

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Baltic states and Poland put pressure on Germany

🎦 08:58-10:26⏩

Jonathan reports that Baltic members of parliament have warned the German government that they would send troops to Ukraine should Russia achieve a breakthrough on the Eastern Front. He views this as a warning to Germany and an attempt to put pressure on Germany to step up its support for Ukraine. Jonathan senses frustration from other countries who think Germany is hiding behind its policy of "anti-escalation", and highlights the contrast with France, who have now committed troops.

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Russian Shell production analysis

🎦 10:26-13:59⏩

Jonathan revisits a Sky News report that stated that Russia was producing 3 times as many shells as Ukraine. He disagrees strongly with the report which he describes as "idiotic gibberish" and questions the methodology used. He cites analysis from Jakub Janovsky (Oryx) who highlighted flaws in the report which had taken a very narrow view of Ukrainian 155mm shell production but included 122mm and 152mm shells, mortar rounds as well as potential North Korean imports when calculating Russian production. He criticises Sky News for reporting these figures, reminding viewers that they should expect better. Jonathan then addresses viewer comments about the differences between 152mm and 155mm howitzers and explains the historical reasons why Russia uses 152mm rather than 155mm artillery. He notes that 152mm and 155mm were both initially French and that France's subsequent adoption of the metric system led it to adopt 155mm in the late 19th Century, this then became the norm. Jonathan explains that Russia struggled with the metric system and as a result, Tsarist Russia stuck with 152mm. He concludes that there isn't much difference between the capabilities of the two calibres.

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EU to co-finance increased shell production

🎦 13:59-16:04⏩

Jonathan reports that the EU is co-financing 31 projects to increase the production of powder, explosives and shells, with the aim of reaching a production capacity of 2 million by 2025. He notes that this represents a move towards a war economy model and draws parallels with similar moves by France. He cites comments from the EU Commissioner for the Internal Market, Thierry Breton, who said that this has to be done across all sectors of the defence industry, including guns, armoured vehicles and missiles.

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Slovakia transfers MiG-29s to Ukraine

🎦 16:04-17:30⏩

Jonathan reports that Slovakia has transferred several MiG-29AS fighter jets to Ukraine. He speculates about the potential reasons for what he sees as an overly cautious approach to escalation from the United States, wondering if it stems from US Cold War military doctrine or if other factors might be at play. He refers to the book "Overreach: The Inside Story of the Afghanistan War and the Crisis it Created" by Owen Matthews and suggests that pressure from China could be a factor. He recalls the decision by Poland and Slovakia to transfer MiG-29s earlier in the war and notes that the US initially endorsed the decision but later reversed its position. The book claims this was due to pressure from China, and this leads Jonathan to wonder if China is playing a "game of chess", putting pressure on the US to limit the support it provides to Ukraine.

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Ukraine using US GBU-39 bombs

🎦 17:30-18:18⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine has been using US-supplied GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs on the recently delivered MiG-29 fighter jets, noting that several bombs have already been used and that more are on the way. He highlights the effectiveness of these bombs and their high success rate of 90%.

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Russia jamming GLSDB bombs

🎦 18:18-19:23⏩

Jonathan reports that Russia has been successfully jamming a large number of Ukraine's Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), citing a recent Reuters article. He acknowledges that this issue was reported a few days ago but notes that new details are now emerging and encourages viewers to read the article.

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Ukrainian drone companies seek opportunities abroad

🎦 19:23-22:56⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukrainian drone companies are looking for opportunities abroad as Ukraine's production capacity outpaces its funding. He notes that Ukraine has imposed strict export restrictions on military equipment to prevent it from falling into Russian hands but acknowledges that this is hampering the ability of Ukrainian companies to sell their products on international markets. Jonathan highlights recent comments from Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation, who has said there is a $10bn shortfall in funding. Jonathan goes on to read an extract from an article from the Kyiv Independent which reports that although Ukraine's drone industry is thriving - with over 200 companies now operating in Ukraine - consolidation is likely as many of the smaller companies are unlikely to survive. Jonathan compares Ukraine's drone industry with the US automotive industry in the early 1900s which experienced a period of rapid growth followed by consolidation. He quotes Isaac Flanagan, co-founder of ZeroLiner, who says that consolidation can result in higher volumes, better products and increased specialisation.

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First photos of Ukrainian prisoners joining AFU

🎦 22:56-24:33⏩

Jonathan reports that the first photos of Ukrainian prisoners joining the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have been released. He explains that prisoners have been offered parole in exchange for military service but notes that this only applies to those convicted of minor offences and who are nearing the end of their sentences. Jonathan notes that they will not all be frontline fighters and reasons that these men can replace fit Ukrainians who are currently employed in support roles behind the frontlines.

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Wrap up

🎦 24:33-24:49⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and lets them know that he might have time to produce a frontline update video later today.

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