Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"At some point, the endless manpower has to draw on Moscow and St Petersburg and there will be political consequences..."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:58⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for a Ukraine War Frontline Update for 5th June 2024. He begins by reflecting on the significance of the D-Day landings, drawing parallels between those historical events and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Jonathan observes that both instances involve courageous individuals fighting for freedom in demanding circumstances. He briefly ponders the motivations driving Putin's actions, suggesting there's a lack of clarity surrounding the ultimate objectives of the war. Jonathan reminds viewers about the key on the map he uses and encourages them to pause the video if needed to familiarise themselves with it.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kharkiv - Northern Frontline Update

🎦 00:58-14:25⏩

Jonathan begins by sharing an observation from fellow commentator Randy Mott, highlighting concerns about the declining quality of Russian troops over time, particularly due to high attrition rates among elite units. Jonathan explains how attrition affects troop quality, using the example of the VDV (Russian airborne troops) who were initially comprised of the most skilled soldiers but due to heavy losses, have had to be replenished with less experienced recruits. This has diluted the unit's overall effectiveness. He emphasizes this applies to both sides, noting that while Ukraine also has elite troops, their sustained deployment could lead to similar issues. Jonathan questions the narrative of Russia possessing limitless manpower. He points out that unlike the Soviet Union, Russia is not structured to sustain prolonged conflicts without experiencing internal political repercussions. He anticipates a breaking point when Russian citizens will no longer tolerate the mounting casualties, particularly when the war lacks a clear justification. He compares the situation to the Soviet-Afghan War, where domestic pressure ultimately forced a withdrawal. Jonathan questions the notion that Russia can outlast Ukraine simply due to its larger population, arguing that the nature of the conflict and Ukraine's unwavering determination will play a significant role. He reminds viewers of the substantial international economic and military aid Ukraine receives, highlighting the stark contrast with Russia's relative isolation. He suggests that these factors may lead to a quicker resolution than anticipated. Jonathan then shifts his focus to a recent report from the ISW (Institute for the Study of War). The ISW notes that some Russian military commentators are expressing concerns about the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone and electronic warfare capabilities. Jonathan supports this observation, citing a recent Nafo video in which Ukrainian soldiers emphasized their current drone advantage due to significant donations from various countries. Jonathan notes this contradicts earlier claims by some that Russia held the drone advantage and suggests a shift in the balance of power in this aspect of the conflict. Jonathan then delves into a specific area of the frontline where the ISW reports recent Russian advances near Vovchansk. However, Jonathan challenges this claim, arguing that footage of an ambush in Sturitzia, presented as evidence of a Russian advance, actually contradicts this narrative. He highlights inconsistencies between the maps provided by Deep State, Syriac Maps, and the footage itself, suggesting that the area in question is more likely a contested "grey zone" rather than under firm Russian control. Jonathan contends that the incident involved a failed Russian advance into Ukrainian-held territory, resulting in significant Russian casualties. Jonathan points out that Ukrainian forces currently control approximately 70% of Vovchansk and cites reports of Russian artillery targeting bridges and crossings over the Vovcha River in an attempt to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. He mentions a Ukrainian platoon commander's observation that Russian vehicles maintain a distance of 3-5 km from the international border to avoid Ukrainian strikes. Jonathan expresses astonishment at this revelation, highlighting the challenges it poses for supplying Russian troops operating in supposedly controlled territory. He speculates that the Russians may be relying on alternative modes of transportation, such as golf carts and motorbikes. A pro-Russian military blogger's claim that Russian forces are establishing fortifications north of Vovchansk is also mentioned, along with observations that Ukrainian drone strikes are hindering these efforts. The report emphasizes the difficulties both sides face in fortifying positions near the border due to constant threats from drones and artillery fire. Jonathan shares a significant development: the surrender of 60 Russian soldiers to Ukrainian forces. He highlights the potential impact this event could have on the morale of remaining Russian troops, suggesting it could sow seeds of doubt and potentially inspire further surrenders. He concludes the Kharkiv update with a positive outlook, noting that if Ukraine maintains its momentum, it could potentially force a complete Russian withdrawal from Vovchansk.

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Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Frontline Update

🎦 15:47-16:26⏩

Jonathan reports no significant changes on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna frontline, noting this as positive news for Ukraine. He speculates this stability could be attributed to the reported redeployment of Russian units from this sector to reinforce other areas. He also references previous reports of minor Russian successes in the area around Rosalivka, but states that the situation remains unchanged.

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Chasiv Yar Frontline Update

🎦 16:26-25:50⏩

Jonathan discusses the Chasiv Yar front, specifically the area south of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal. He explains that while the mapping data doesn't show significant changes in Russian defensive positions, there has been a notable expansion of the "grey zone" as indicated by military analyst Andrew Perpetua. This suggests a more fluid and contested situation on the ground than the static lines might imply. Jonathan acknowledges JR, a contributor who assists with map updates, for bringing this detail to his attention. He analyzes the terrain, noting the presence of a bluff, forests, culverts, and a nature reserve. This challenging topography, he suggests, limits the use of mechanized equipment and favors infantry movements. He references reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources, indicating recent Russian attempts to advance in this area, particularly around Kalinivka. Jonathan breaks down the Russian strategy, explaining their attempts to exploit the terrain, particularly the culverts and wooded areas. He explains that the Russians aimed to cut off Ukrainian supply lines to the canal district and force a retreat. However, he notes that their plans were hampered by the challenging terrain, which restricted their use of vehicles and exposed them to Ukrainian drone and artillery attacks. Jonathan cites a report from military analyst Randy Mott, who describes the situation as a "disaster" for the Russians. He highlights the Russians' apparent miscalculation in launching their attacks and their inability to effectively utilize airstrikes due to the density of the forest, which made it difficult to distinguish between their own troops and the enemy. Jonathan outlines the Ukrainian response, detailing their use of reconnaissance drones to track Russian movements and set up ambushes. He mentions Ukrainian reports claiming significant Russian casualties and the destruction of several military vehicles, including a T-90M tank. He points out the irony of these losses being inflicted upon Russia's supposedly "elite" airborne forces, further emphasizing the point made earlier about the declining quality of these units. Jonathan concludes his analysis by commending the Ukrainians for effectively exploiting the terrain and inflicting heavy losses on the attacking Russian forces.

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Donetsk - Avdiivka Frontline Update

🎦 25:50-26:27⏩

Moving south, Jonathan reports on the Avdiivka front, where he observes minor Russian gains north of the town, specifically on the outskirts of Novokalynove. He notes that all the map sources agree on this development, indicating a relatively clear advance in this area.

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Donetsk - Mariinka - Velyka Novosilka Frontline Update

🎦 26:27-29:38⏩

Jonathan acknowledges a break in his recording, humorously attributing it to a pub visit with "Del," who assists with statistical analysis for his morning updates. He expresses uncertainty about picking up his train of thought after the interruption. Resuming the update, Jonathan focuses on the area south of Mariinka. He notes significant Russian advances, with Ukrainian forces being pushed back according to all map sources. The Russians have made gains north, west, and south of Novomayorske, pushing down towards Solodka. He cites a report from "Special Kherson Kat" as evidence of fighting in the area, mentioning Russian armored vehicles being targeted by Javelin anti-tank missiles between Novomykhailivka and Vuhledar. This suggests ongoing offensive operations by the Russians in this sector. Jonathan expresses concern about the situation south of Mariinka, characterizing it as "not looking rosy" for the Ukrainians. He suggests that the Russians might be aiming to capture Novodonetske and eventually target Velyka Novosilka, which would be crucial for holding back Russian advances in this region. Moving further south past Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka, Jonathan reports no significant changes on the frontline. He does mention a slight adjustment in the mapping around the Robotyne area, bringing Deep State Maps in line with Andrew Perpetua's assessment. However, he dismisses this as a mere alignment of mapping data rather than any indication of offensive action or territorial gains.

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Dnipro River Frontline Update

🎦 29:38-32:10⏩

Shifting focus to the Dnipro River area, Jonathan simplifies the map to provide a clearer view. He notes that Ukrainian defensive lines are not displayed in this area due to the way data is derived from Perpetua's maps, which include numerous islands in the river. He then references the ISW report, which mentions limited Russian ground attacks on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River and in the delta. However, the report confirms no confirmed changes to the front line in this area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported repelling Russian attacks near Krynky on June 3rd and 4th. Russian sources claim that elite VDV and naval infantry units are attempting to clear Ukrainian troops from islands in the Dnipro River delta and prevent further Ukrainian landing attempts on the east bank. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the specifics of these operations, acknowledging a lack of detailed information. He speculates on the possible location of these engagements, considering both the Krynky area and islands further downriver near the Konka River. He acknowledges the limitations of the available information and refrains from drawing definitive conclusions about the situation in the Dnipro River delta.

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Wrap up

🎦 32:10-32:31⏩

Jonathan concludes the update, apologizing for the extended length of the video, explaining that he had to pause recording earlier in the day due to personal commitments, including his son's football presentation. He thanks viewers for their understanding and signs off.

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