Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update (+added rant)
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"If they aren't on one they have spent eight nine months doing what like what the russians been doing since before uh the kherson and khakiv the khakiv lightning offensive when was the last time they seriously took land what they've been doing for eight months why are they in ukraine if they are not on an offensive?"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides a frontline update for the war in Ukraine on 1st April 2023. He notes there will be no April Fools in this video.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Frontline activity
Using maps from DeepStateMap, Jonathan shows there is very little frontline activity, with only some around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. He notes this is surprising if Russia is meant to be on an offensive. The frontline is very quiet in comparison to previous weeks.
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Rant about Russian offensive claims
Jonathan addresses claims from pro-Russian voices that Russia is not on an offensive because they haven't officially announced one. He argues this makes no sense - if Russia is not on an offensive, it means they have spent 8-9 months doing very little and are getting "their asses whooped" by Ukraine who are on the defensive. There has been a huge uptick in Russian equipment losses in the last 3 months which can only be explained by an offensive.
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Bakhmut
- Russian forces have made some gains in central Bakhmut, with geolocated footage showing a Wagner Group flag near the city administration building.
- However, a prominent Russian military blogger noted Wagner is failing to make significant progress and attacks around the city are unsuccessful.
- Theories suggest Ukraine is rotating troops in Bakhmut to maintain an optimal level. There are also claims of tunnels being used to resupply the city.
- The situation remains fluid with different mappers showing conflicting information about Russian and Ukrainian positions in parts of Bakhmut.
Avdiivka area
- Geolocated footage indicates Ukraine has conducted a successful counterattack southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske, regaining lost positions.
- There are various Russian claims of assaults and battles around settlements west and northwest of Avdiivka, like Pervomaiske, Nevelske and Krasnohorivka.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported unsuccessful Russian offensive operations in several of these areas.
- In Marinka, Syriac Map claims Ukraine has ceded a few blocks but this is unconfirmed by other sources.
Southern Ukraine
- The ISW claims Russian reserves (not naval infantry/marines) are fighting in the Vuhledar area, possibly because their best troops have been decimated.
- Ukraine's Southern Command says Russian forces are dispersing troops and equipment in southern Ukraine to avoid being targeted by Ukrainian strikes. Geolocated footage shows a Ukrainian strike against a Russian electronic warfare system in Novokakhovka.
- Russia is heavily fortifying and building defenses along the coast in occupied Crimea, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, as if anticipating a "D-Day" style offensive. While these can be overcome, they will make any potential Ukrainian offensive in these areas more difficult.
Wrap up
Jonathan signs off by asking viewers to like, subscribe, share the video and to keep an eye out for extra video(s) he will release later.
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