Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Electric power is possibly the only thing that Russians actually care about in this world. Everything else they don't seem to care about. Their children dying - don't care, extreme inflation - don't care, losing your job - don't care. Electric power? Time to rebel."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:23⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video, acknowledging the recent release of Andrew Perpetua's weekend loss figures and expressing gratitude for his work. He muses that military intelligence services should be paying close attention to open-source intelligence (OSINT) work.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Figures for 25/08/2024
🎦 01:24-05:18⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's reported Russian losses, noting:
- Personnel: 1,140 (above average).
- Tanks: 4 (below average).
- AFVs: 17 (average).
- Artillery Systems: 47 (over double the average).
Jonathan highlights the discrepancy between reported artillery losses and visually confirmed losses, attributing it to limitations in satellite imagery analysis. He emphasizes that artillery is often targeted through counter-battery fire, which is not as visually engaging for open-source documentation.
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Andrew Perpetua's Overall Loss Statistics
🎦 05:18-11:05⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's compiled loss figures, noting the near one-to-one loss ratio between Ukrainian and Russian forces. He reiterates that for Ukraine to gain a decisive advantage, the loss ratio should ideally be three to one in their favor. Jonathan examines visually confirmed losses, including a damaged Russian ST-68U radar, a Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicle (UGV), three Ukrainian Bradleys, a Russian Mi-8 helicopter (valued at $14 million), and a Russian BM-21 Grad multiple-launch rocket system.
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Ukrainian Capture of Russian Soldiers
🎦 11:05-12:39⏩
Jonathan cites the Kyiv Independent's report, based on a Washington Post analysis, that at least 247 Russian soldiers have been captured since Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast began. He emphasizes this figure represents a minimum confirmed by visual evidence and that the actual number is likely higher. Jonathan references previous analyses suggesting a higher figure, potentially exceeding 2,000 captured soldiers.
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Andrew Perpetua's Tracking of Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 12:39-15:38⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's new initiative to track visually confirmed Russian personnel losses, acknowledging the sensitivity of the task but highlighting its statistical importance. He notes that Perpetua recorded 99 confirmed deaths in the past 24 hours and 388 over six days. Jonathan contemplates the potential of this data for identifying trends in Russian losses, particularly spikes coinciding with significant Ukrainian offensives. He ponders whether such analysis could help assess the accuracy of the Ukrainian General Staff's reported figures.
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Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade Activity & Kursk Incursions
🎦 15:38-17:07⏩
Jonathan mentions official footage from Ukraine's 82nd Air Assault Brigade depicting ambushes on Russian vehicles involving US-supplied M1128 Strykers, British Challenger 2 tanks, and other equipment. The operation reportedly resulted in over 20 Russian soldiers captured and several vehicles destroyed. He highlights the capture of a Russian ammo warehouse in Kursk Oblast, emphasizing the strategic value of such seizures.
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US M1 Abrams Tanks & New Ukrainian Drone Tactics
🎦 17:07-20:32⏩
Jonathan discusses the reported effectiveness of US-donated M1 Abrams tanks in the Pokrovsk direction and addresses rumors of additional, undisclosed shipments of military equipment. He details a new tactic employed by Ukrainian drone units, which involves tracking Russian drones back to their operators to identify and potentially target high-value assets and personnel. Jonathan draws parallels to counter-sniper tactics and the importance of eliminating enemy drone teams. He mentions a report of Ukrainian saboteurs killing 18 Russian soldiers in their sleep in Crimea, expressing hope that there will be no repercussions for local populations.
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Zelensky's Criticism of Russian Air Defense Priorities & Fires in Crimea
🎦 20:32-22:35⏩
Jonathan relays Zelensky's observation that while Putin has heavily fortified his residences with air defense systems, civilians in some areas are left vulnerable. He highlights the irony of this disparity in protection. He then shifts to reports of widespread fires in Crimea, including a 15-hectare fire near Sudak, attributing them to Russia's actions, whether intentional or accidental.
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Potential Collapse of the Russian Rail Network?
🎦 22:35-24:21⏩
Jonathan discusses Igor Sushko's report of leaked audio featuring Sergey Kobzev, the deputy managing director of Russian Railways, threatening subordinates with execution if they fail to prevent a complete network shutdown. Kobzev warns of a potential collapse within days. Jonathan acknowledges that these warnings were issued weeks ago and have not yet materialized but emphasizes the potential significance of such a collapse. He speculates that Ukraine may be targeting Russia's rail infrastructure based on intelligence gathered from captured territories.
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Massive Russian Missile and Drone Attack
🎦 24:21-33:05⏩
Jonathan reports a significant overnight attack on Ukraine involving over 100 drones and 60 missiles, acknowledging it as one of the largest assaults. He points out that this attack likely represents the maximum capacity of Russia's current missile and drone capabilities, suggesting potential limitations in production and stockpiles. Jonathan highlights the attack's impact on various cities, including Odessa, Kyiv, Poltava, Kropyvnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Dnipro, Khmelnytskyi, and Lviv. He notes widespread air raid sirens, the use of subways as shelters, and disruptions to power infrastructure. Jonathan observes that despite the attack's scale, there's relatively little footage of the aftermath, indicating Ukraine's efforts to maintain operational security.
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Andrew Perpetua's Call for Strikes on Russian Infrastructure & Morality of Targeting Civilian Infrastructure
🎦 33:05-36:36⏩
Jonathan shares Andrew Perpetua's view that Ukraine should launch a full-scale assault on Russia's electrical grid, arguing that such a move would cripple Russia's capacity to wage war and potentially spark a revolution. He delves into the ethical complexities of targeting civilian infrastructure, acknowledging the potential for civilian harm but also pondering whether such actions could ultimately lead to a swifter end to the conflict and a greater good. Jonathan invites viewers to share their perspectives on this morally challenging issue.
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Ukrainian Air Defense in Zakarpattia & Missile Strikes Analysis
🎦 36:36-39:10⏩
Jonathan revisits footage of a Ukrainian soldier seemingly shooting down a drone, initially claimed to be with a heavy machine gun but later confirmed to have been downed by a surface-to-air missile (SAM). He highlights that the incident occurred in Zakarpattia Oblast, near the Hungarian border, suggesting that Russia might be targeting sensitive infrastructure or military production facilities located far from the front lines. He analyzes footage of a missile striking an apartment building in Lutsk and another landing in water, speculating on potential causes, including targeting errors (CEP), electronic warfare, and interceptions.
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Ukrainian Strike on Gazprom Neft Oil Refinery in Omsk
🎦 39:10-39:58⏩
Jonathan reports a powerful explosion at the Gazprom Neft oil refinery in Omsk, Russia, emphasizing its significance as the largest refinery in the country. He speculates that this could be a retaliatory strike by Ukraine in response to Russia's overnight attacks, potentially signifying a shift in strategy.
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Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Territory & Information Warfare
🎦 39:58-53:30⏩
Jonathan examines drone attacks on Saratov (location of the Engels-2 air base) and Yaroslavl, analyzing footage of a drone striking a residential building in Saratov. He questions whether this was intentional or a result of inaccuracy, electronic warfare, or interception. He emphasizes the strategic importance of the Engels-2 air base and highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian information warfare, as Russian authorities claimed to have shot down all drones. Jonathan notes similar drone attacks in the Volgograd region, where debris from downed drones reportedly damaged buildings. He expresses skepticism towards Russian claims and analyzes footage of a Pantsir-S1 air defense system engaging a target in the Moscow region. He transitions to discussing the ongoing fire at the Proletarsk oil depot, which has been burning for nine days. Finally, he covers the Russian strike on Kramatorsk, which targeted a hotel housing journalists. He mourns the death of British journalist Ryan Evans and questions the international response to attacks on media personnel.
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Belarusian Troop Movements and Potential Threat
🎦 46:46-50:39⏩
Jonathan shares Konrad Muzica's (Rochan Consulting) analysis of Belarusian troop movements near the Ukrainian border. While acknowledging the concerning concentration of forces, Muzica assesses that a full-scale Belarusian offensive is unlikely due to equipment limitations, Ukrainian fortifications, and potential internal resistance within Belarus. Muzica suggests that a more plausible scenario involves limited incursions to divert Ukrainian resources, though he emphasizes the low probability of such actions. Jonathan notes the precarious position of Belarusian President Lukashenko, caught between pressure from Putin and potential backlash from his own population.
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Ukrainian Treatment of Civilians in Occupied Kursk
🎦 50:39-53:30⏩
Jonathan presents footage of Ukrainian soldiers interacting with local residents in occupied Sudzha (Kursk Oblast). He highlights the soldiers' humane treatment of civilians, contrasting it with Russian soldiers' looting and mistreatment of Ukrainians. He underscores the strategic importance of this approach, aiming to foster positive perceptions of Ukrainian forces among the local population and counteract Russian propaganda.
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Ukrainian Advance in Kursk & Russian Z-Blogger's Warning
🎦 53:30-54:34⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian troops have occupied two more settlements in the Kursk region, advancing approximately three kilometers. He then cites a warning issued by prominent Russian milblogger Roman Alekin, who advises residents of four Kursk districts to evacuate or risk being caught in the crossfire of a future Russian counteroffensive. Jonathan expresses astonishment at Alekin's stark warning.
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Propaganda vs. Reality: A Striking Image
🎦 54:34-55:08⏩
Jonathan shares a photo of a billboard featuring Putin with the slogan "Stability," juxtaposed against a backdrop of a massive fire, presumably at an oil depot. He remarks on the image's powerful message and the stark contrast it presents between propaganda and reality.
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Power Struggle Within the Kremlin?
🎦 55:08-55:40⏩
Jonathan cites a Finnish newspaper report suggesting a power struggle within the Kremlin between former FSB director Nikolai Patrushev and oligarch Sergei Chemezov. He acknowledges the potential for this to be disinformation but finds the report noteworthy nonetheless.
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Wrap up
🎦 55:40-55:42⏩
Jonathan acknowledges the lengthy video and thanks viewers for their time.
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