Ukraine Conflict: 7-Day Full Frontline Update, Loads of Pins!
Table of Contents 📖
"But it's really good to see blue pins from my point of view. And it's good to see them in multiple areas."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:05⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to the ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War Frontline Update for 23rd March 2023.
- This update covers seven days of mapping changes, the longest interval between updates.
- Expects to see numerous pins on the map indicating changes in control.
- Notes both Russian advances and Ukrainian pushbacks will be visible.
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kursk and Belgorod Border Fighting
🎦 00:29-00:41⏩
- Starting in the north around Kursk, Jonathan observes the expected tightening of Russian control around Ukrainian sectors.
- Mentions one sector has been bisected.
Russian Push into Novankiv
🎦 00:50-01:07⏩
- According to Mapa Suriname and Andrew Perpetua maps, Russians are pushing into Ukraine near Novankiv.
- Ukrainians have been pushed back south of the border in this area.
Ukrainian Incursions into Belgorod
🎦 01:19-01:31⏩
- Reports of Ukrainian attacks or incursions into Belgorod are noted.
- Information is limited, making it difficult to assess the situation.
Limited Ukrainian Gains in Belgorod Incursion
🎦 01:31-01:51⏩
- Mentions seeing footage of Ukrainian vehicles being destroyed by Russian drones in Belgorod.
- This incursion seems less extensive than the Kursk area fighting.
- Ukrainians are likely to struggle to make significant gains in Belgorod.
Motivations for Belgorod Incursion
🎦 01:51-02:38⏩
- Jonathan speculates on the rationale behind the Ukrainian Belgorod operation.
- Considers whether it is a diversionary tactic, a bargaining chip for negotiations, or to draw Russian troops away from other frontline sectors.
Conflicting Map Reports around Demidovka and Prileseye
🎦 02:38-02:50⏩
- Discusses conflicting reports regarding control of Demidovka, with some claims of ongoing fighting.
- Notes discrepancies between Suriyak Maps and Andrew Perpetua's mapping in this area.
Grey Zones and Ukrainian Advances near Demidovka and Prileseye
🎦 03:03-03:28⏩
- Andrew Perpetua's map indicates the Russian defensive line is pushed back to Demidovka, suggesting a grey zone.
- Mentions claims that Prileseye is now under Ukrainian control, with Andrew Perpetua also showing it as a grey zone.
Possible Ukrainian Push towards Hrafivka
🎦 03:37-04:01⏩
- Suggests fighting is progressing towards Hrafivka, indicating a potential Ukrainian movement in this area.
- Recaps the areas of Ukrainian activity as Kursk and along the border into Belgorod in the areas of Hrafivka, Demidovka and Prileseye.
Zelenskyy Office Confirms Military Operation (March 19th)
🎦 04:09-04:29⏩
- Reports Zelenskyy's office confirmed a military operation around March 19th, which has been ongoing for about a week.
- Notes the limited territorial changes despite the week-long operation, suggesting stiff resistance for Ukrainians.
Potential Russian Encirclement near Demodovka
🎦 04:29-04:50⏩
- Mentions Russian sources claiming up to a thousand Russian troops are at risk of encirclement near Demodovka.
- This could be a significant development if confirmed.
Uncertainty of Ukrainian Effort in Belgorod
🎦 04:50-05:29⏩
- Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the scale of Ukrainian resources committed to the Belgorod area.
- Considers the arguments for and against this operation, given Ukrainian challenges elsewhere on the front.
- Information is scarce due to operational security.
Stable Situation near Vovchansk
🎦 05:52-06:06⏩
- Briefly mentions Vovchansk, noting Suriyak Maps reports small Russian gains, but other sources indicate a stable situation.
- Jonathan believes the area is mostly stable.
Kupyansk Direction - Conflicting Reports around Oskil River
🎦 06:06-06:20⏩
- In the Kupyansk direction, around the Oskil River, Suriyak Maps shows changes, while Andrew Perpetua shows none, suggesting a dynamic situation.
Russian Claims of Crossing Oskil River and Attacks near Kamianka and Krasnopershia
🎦 06:20-06:39⏩
- Reports of Russian claims of crossing the Oskil River and attacking near Kamianka and Krasnopershia.
- Russians may be attempting to retake Fyolivka, recently regained by Ukraine.
Possible Russian Pushback near Kupyansk
🎦 06:39-06:54⏩
- Suriyak Maps, aligned with MOD reports, suggests a potential Russian pushback in this area.
Ukrainian Pushback near Vorichina and Zapadny
🎦 06:54-07:22⏩
- Conversely, Ukrainians are pushing back Russians near Vorichina and significantly around Zapadny.
- This pushback around Zapadny may have occurred towards the end of the seven-day mapping period.
Ukrainian Advances West of Zapadny
🎦 07:22-07:50⏩
- Recent reports indicate further Ukrainian advances west of Zapadny, pushing beyond the Zapadny road.
- Ukrainians likely control the area up to Zapadny, suggesting a grey zone before the town itself.
Ukrainian Gains South of Sienkiewka
🎦 07:58-08:16⏩
- Claims from Greyskull suggest Russians withdrew south of Sienkiewka.
- Grey zone now extends into Sienkiewka, with Ukrainians clearing areas to the south.
Kupyansk Area - Positive Developments for Ukraine
🎦 08:16-08:43⏩
- Suriyak Maps agrees on Ukrainian pushback but not on the grey zone extent in Sienkiewka as claimed by Greyskull.
- Overall, Kupyansk area is currently presenting better news for Ukraine with confirmed pushbacks.
Nadia Direction - Ukrainian Gains North of Pistchani and Recapture of Nadir
🎦 08:43-09:32⏩
- Moving south to Nadia, notes minor Ukrainian gains north of Pistchani near Kozliny Kivka.
Nadir Recaptured - Strategic Significance
🎦 09:32-10:02⏩
- Recalls previous intense fighting around Nadir and Novoharivka, where Russians focused significant effort and resources.
- This area was near Raya Rodka, where Russians pushed over the Zherebets River towards Borova, before being pushed back slightly by Ukrainians.
Disputed Control of Novoharivka
🎦 10:02-10:22⏩
- Control of Novoharivka remains disputed, with Andrew Perpetua indicating a grey zone and Suriyak Maps claiming Russian control.
Ukrainian Counter-offensive Reclaims Nadir
🎦 10:22-10:43⏩
- Emphasises the significant Russian effort previously expended to capture Nadir and surrounding areas.
- Mentions Russian reports of Ukrainian advances in Vishneve and Nadir areas in the last 24 hours, which is positive news for Ukraine.
Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade Recaptures Nadir
🎦 10:43-11:23⏩
- Reports confirmation and footage (unseen due to graphic content) of Ukrainian forces regaining control of Nadir.
- Ukrainian Defence Forces, specifically the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, are credited with the recapture of Nadir settlement in Luhansk region.
- Highlights the 3rd Assault Brigade as a crack Ukrainian unit.
Russian Losses in Nadir and Speed of Ukrainian Recapture
🎦 11:23-11:43⏩
- Notes that Russians destroyed two mechanised regiments and spent two months capturing Nadir, which is now back under Ukrainian control.
- Ukrainians recaptured Nadir in just 30 hours.
Limited Scale of Ukrainian Successes Compared to Russian Gains
🎦 11:43-12:05⏩
- Ukrainian brigade reclaimed 3 square kilometers of territory that took Russia two months to capture.
- Emphasises that Ukrainian successes remain small compared to Russian territorial gains over the past six months.
Russian Gains in Mariinka and Vuhledar Area
🎦 12:05-12:28⏩
- Highlights the significant Russian gains in areas like Mariinka and Vuhledar, now fully under Russian control and advancing further.
- Contrasts these large Russian gains with the smaller scale of recent Ukrainian successes.
Positive Sign of Ukrainian Blue Pins in Multiple Areas
🎦 12:28-12:42⏩
- Despite the limited scale, Jonathan expresses positive sentiment about seeing "blue pins" (indicating Ukrainian control/advances) on the map.
- Notes Ukrainian pushbacks in Kupyansk area and the "Pischani sector".
Russian Pins around Torsk-Uturni and Siversk Front - Map Differences
🎦 12:42-13:20⏩
- Notes "purple pins" indicating Russian gains, particularly around Torsk-Uturni, with Russians taking some fields.
- Further south towards Volodymyrivka and Bilohorivka, differing map interpretations are significant, especially around Siversk.
Siversk Vulnerability and Topography
🎦 13:20-13:52⏩
- If Suriyak Maps' interpretation of Russian control near Siversk is accurate, Siversk is in a precarious position.
- Acknowledges Russian pressure but highlights the defensible topography around Siversk, including chalk mine pits and a river, which offer Ukrainian defensive advantages.
Bakhmut Front - Stable North, Russian Gains South near Chasiv Yar
🎦 14:11-14:40⏩
- Bakhmut front is generally stable, especially north of the city near Hiraivka.
- South of Bakhmut, near Chasiv Yar, Suriyak Maps indicates Russian gains in an urban area.
Russian Gains near Turetsk and Possible Counterattacks
🎦 14:40-15:22⏩
- Suriyak Maps also shows Russian gains near Turetsk.
- Reports suggest potential Russian counterattacks in this area, possibly involving better-trained troops.
- Situation in Turetsk is dynamic and uncertain.
Ukrainian Advances in Turetsk City Centre
🎦 15:22-16:21⏩
- Contradictory information from a pro-Russian mapper indicates Ukrainian advances in Turetsk city centre.
- This suggests a possible Ukrainian pushback, creating a grey zone extending back towards previously held Russian lines according to this source.
- This interpretation differs significantly from both map sources previously discussed.
Possible Grey Zone Expansion in Turetsk
🎦 16:21-16:43⏩
- If the pro-Russian mapper's information is accurate, a large grey zone may have developed in Turetsk, beneficial for Ukrainians if they are indeed pushing back.
- This scenario is more favourable for Ukrainians than indicated by the main map sources.
Prokrosk Area - Minor Russian Gains and Conflicting Reports near Tarasivka
🎦 16:43-17:20⏩
- In the Prokrosk area, minor Russian gains are reported towards Novobakhmutivka.
- Conflicting reports emerge regarding Tarasivka, near Zeleny Pole.
Ukrainian Recapture of Tarasivka
🎦 17:20-17:37⏩
- Reports indicate Ukrainian forces recaptured Tarasivka, pushing Russians from the southern outskirts.
- This occurred recently, contradicting Suriyak Maps, which shows Russians advancing in this direction.
Map Discrepancies and Grey Zone Activity
🎦 17:37-18:12⏩
- Highlights the discrepancy between map sources regarding Tarasivka, with Suriyak Maps potentially showing outdated information.
- Reminds viewers that activity in grey zones may not be immediately reflected on maps until there is a shift in the Russian defensive lines.
- Ukrainian gains within grey zones might be occurring without immediate map updates.
Shevchenko - Russian Recapture Claim and Ukrainian Activity near Malinivka
🎦 18:12-18:39⏩
- Suriyak Maps indicates Shevchenko is back under full Russian control, reversing previous Ukrainian gains in the area.
- However, other sources do not confirm this.
- Reports suggest Ukrainian activity and gains further south near Malinivka.
Malinivka - Back and Forth Control and Dynamic Situation
🎦 18:39-19:29⏩
- Malinivka, located at a key junction on the T0504 highway, has seen fluctuating control.
- The area has been contested multiple times, with Russians attacking, being pushed back, retaking it, and potentially being pushed back again.
- Current situation in Malinivka is unclear and dynamic.
Shevchenko - Uncertain Situation and Ukrainian Advances South
🎦 19:29-20:07⏩
- Reiterates uncertainty about the situation in Shevchenko, with Suriyak Maps claiming Russian control while other sources suggest Ukrainian advances south of the settlement from five days prior.
- Emphasises the dynamic nature of these frontline areas where control can shift rapidly.
Zaporizhzhia - Russian Gains and Frontline Equalisation
🎦 20:07-20:33⏩
- Moving south to Zaporizhzhia, confirms continued Russian gains.
- Russians are "filling in" and equalising the front between Andreevka-Kostantinopil and the Prokrosk sector, eliminating potential Ukrainian pockets.
Kostiantynopil-Andriivka Pocket - Russian Encirclement and Ukrainian Counterattacks
🎦 20:33-21:48⏩
- Russians are closing in and taking land in the Kostiantynopil-Andriivka pocket, according to Andrew Perpetua.
- Suriyak Maps shows a more extensive Russian advance westwards.
- However, reports from sources like Tim White and Ostav Vyshninyi indicate possible Ukrainian counterattacks and advancements in Kostiantynopil and Andriivka.
Possible Ukrainian Pushback near Kostiantynopil and Andreevka
🎦 21:48-22:21⏩
- Tim White reported seven days prior that Kostiantynopil might be lost, but recent reports suggest Ukrainian counterattacks are occurring.
- Ostav Vyshninyi indicates Ukrainian advancements in both Kostiantynopil and Andriivka, which is positive news.
Ukrainian Pushback Extent - Map Discrepancies
🎦 22:21-22:47⏩
- Ukrainian pushback might be more extensive eastward than currently mapped, according to Jonathan's synthesis.
- Map discrepancies persist, with Suriyak Maps showing more pronounced Russian control compared to Andrew Perpetua, even in areas of potential Ukrainian counterattack.
Velika Novosilka Area - Continued Russian Incremental Gains
🎦 22:47-23:09⏩
- Further south towards Velika Novosilka, Russians continue to make incremental gains, which are cumulatively significant.
- Russians are steadily taking more land in this sector.
Zaporizhzhia - Russian Push towards Orekiv and Ukrainian Activity near Kamyanskoye
🎦 23:09-23:49⏩
- Confirms Russian push in Zaporizhzhia direction, possibly aiming to cut the road to Orikhiv.
- Russian gains are reported southeast of Orikhiv.
- Interestingly, Ukrainians were previously pushing near Kamyanskoye and west of Zherebyanky, but now Russians are advancing towards Malyshev-Baki.
Russian Increased Activity in Zaporizhzhia - Push towards Malyshev-Baki and Shibaki
🎦 23:49-24:29⏩
- Stanislav Osman, a Ukrainian platoon commander, reports increased Russian activity in Zaporizhzhia.
- Geolocated footage confirms Russian presence in Shibaki area, indicating Russian advances in this new sector.
- This Russian push in Zaporizhzhia has been ongoing for about six days.
Dnipro River Activity - Ukrainian Air Force Strikes with Guided Bombs
🎦 24:29-24:53⏩
- Significant activity along the Dnipro River, with increased Ukrainian Air Force operations.
- Ukrainians are using French-guided Hammer bombs (AASM) for strikes.
- Significant strikes reported around Nova Kakhovka and Dniprojany.
Ukrainian Strikes near Krinky and Antonivsky Bridge Area
🎦 24:53-25:36⏩
- Dniprojany is located near Krinky, which is close to Kherson and the Antonivsky Bridge area.
- This area is receiving attention with guided glide bomb strikes.
- Mentions the destroyed Konka Bridge and Antonivsky Bridge in the vicinity.
Increased Activity on Dnipro - Potential Ukrainian Cross-River Attack Speculation
🎦 25:36-26:11⏩
- Reports of increased activity on the Dnipro River, with speculation from sources like Gen T Politico about a potential Ukrainian cross-river attack.
- Jonathan doubts the likelihood of a major Ukrainian cross-river attack, deeming it "suicidal" without overwhelming force.
Ukrainian Air Force Strike on Russian River Crossing near Dniprojany
🎦 26:11-26:40⏩
- On March 21st, Ukrainian Air Force struck and destroyed a Russian company supporting river crossings near Dniprojany, Kherson region.
- Strike targeted watercraft, naval assets, and a utility room with technical assets.
- French-supplied AASM Hammer bombs were used in the strike.
Purpose of Dnipro Strikes - Disrupting Russian Activity
🎦 26:40-27:03⏩
- Purpose of Ukrainian strikes on the Dnipro is likely to cripple Russian capabilities in the area, potentially to prevent Russian attacks across the river.
Increased Ukrainian Guided Bomb Usage and Potential Reasons
🎦 27:03-27:31⏩
- Jonathan observes increased frequency of Ukrainian guided glide bomb usage.
- Speculates possible reasons: increased availability of French bombs or degradation of Russian air defences, allowing for freer Ukrainian air operations near the front lines.
- Concludes this is speculation.
Russian Guided Bomb Usage and Ukrainian Jamming Efforts
🎦 27:31-27:52⏩
- Russians continue their relentless use of guided glide bombs.
- Reports suggest Russians are facing increased challenges due to Ukrainian jamming of these bombs, which is positive news for Ukraine.
Wrap up
🎦 27:52-27:57⏩
- Jonathan concludes the frontline update.
- Thanks viewers for watching and promises to speak to them soon.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
- Task 2 (Topic Titles): This required reading the transcript and identifying topic shifts. I planned to read through the transcript sequentially, looking for changes in location, subject matter, or focus. I remembered the mandatory "Hello Team" and "Wrap up" topics. I prioritised granular, specific, and quantified titles as per the examples, and considered the importance of Ukrainian spellings. I decided to create a preliminary list of topics as I read, and then refine them to ensure they were concise and descriptive. I also considered the tag format `
`.
- Task 3 (Topic Timestamps): This was linked to Task 2. After identifying topics, I planned to go back through the transcript and record the timestamps immediately before and after each topic section. I noted the required `
` tag format and timestamp format (MM:SS or HH:MM:SS). I realised this task would also serve as a validation step for Task 2, as the timestamps should cover the entire transcript without significant gaps.
- Task 4 (Topic Summaries): This was the most substantial task. I planned to summarise each topic identified in Task 2. I focused on extracting key information, Jonathan's analysis, opinions, and any mentioned sources. I decided to use bullet points for clarity and consider markdown for emphasis sparingly. I made a mental note to maintain British English, use Ukrainian spellings, and adhere strictly to the transcript content, avoiding external information. I also noted the `` tag requirement.
- Task 5 (Quote): I decided to read through the transcript specifically looking for a quote that was insightful, representative of Jonathan's style, and concise enough to stand alone. I aimed for a quote that captured the essence of the video or a particularly poignant point. I considered the `
` tag.
- Task 6 (Queries): I planned to actively monitor my understanding throughout the process. If I encountered any ambiguities, misspellings that I couldn't confidently correct, or unclear sections, I would note them down for the `
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
` section. If everything was clear, I would explicitly state "None".
- Execution and Refinement (Mental Simulation): Before actually generating the output, I mentally simulated going through the transcript and performing each task. This helped me anticipate potential issues, like overlapping topics, deciding on the level of granularity for topic titles, and ensuring the timestamps aligned correctly with the topics. I also considered the order of operations: Task 1 first, then Task 2, then Task 3, then Task 4, then Task 5, and finally Task 6, as these are inherently dependent on each other.
- XML Structure Adherence: I kept the provided XML structure example firmly in mind throughout the planning and execution stages. I double-checked the tag names and the overall order of elements to ensure the final output would be valid XML and meet the specified format. I paid special attention to closing tags matching opening tags.
- British English and Ukrainian Spellings: I made a conscious effort to write in British English and to use correct Ukrainian spellings for place names. I knew this was a specific requirement and important for the project's context.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
My thought process to generate the XML response involved the following steps:
- Decomposition of the Request: I first broke down the request into its core components:
- Objective: Summarise a YouTube transcript from ATP Geopolitics.
- Format: XML output, adhering to a specific structure and tags.
- Tasks: Six distinct tasks (Title/Date/Part, Topic Titles, Topic Timestamps, Topic Summaries, Quote, Queries) with specific rules for each.
- Style: British English (EN-GB), Ukrainian spellings, concise and informative summaries.
- Task-by-Task Planning: I then planned each task individually, considering the rules and guidance provided:
- Task 1 (Title, Date, Part): This was straightforward string manipulation. I identified the elements in the provided YouTube title, applied the date format conversion (YYYYMMDD to DD/MM/YYYY), and handled the absence of a "part". I noted the XML tag requirements (`
`, `<date>`, `<part>`).</li> </ul> <ul> <li><b>Task 2 (Topic Titles):</b> This required reading the transcript and identifying topic shifts. I planned to read through the transcript sequentially, looking for changes in location, subject matter, or focus. I remembered the mandatory "Hello Team" and "Wrap up" topics. I prioritised granular, specific, and quantified titles as per the examples, and considered the importance of Ukrainian spellings. I decided to create a preliminary list of topics as I read, and then refine them to ensure they were concise and descriptive. I also considered the tag format `<h2 class="topictitle" id=X>`.</li> </ul> <ul> <li><b>Task 3 (Topic Timestamps):</b> This was linked to Task 2. After identifying topics, I planned to go back through the transcript and record the timestamps immediately before and after each topic section. I noted the required `<topicts id=X>` tag format and timestamp format (MM:SS or HH:MM:SS). I realised this task would also serve as a validation step for Task 2, as the timestamps should cover the entire transcript without significant gaps.</li> </ul> <ul> <li><b>Task 4 (Topic Summaries):</b> This was the most substantial task. I planned to summarise each topic identified in Task 2. I focused on extracting key information, Jonathan's analysis, opinions, and any mentioned sources. I decided to use bullet points for clarity and consider markdown for emphasis sparingly. I made a mental note to maintain British English, use Ukrainian spellings, and adhere strictly to the transcript content, avoiding external information. I also noted the `<div class="topicsummary" id=X>` tag requirement.</li> </ul> <ul> <li><b>Task 5 (Quote):</b> I decided to read through the transcript specifically looking for a quote that was insightful, representative of Jonathan's style, and concise enough to stand alone. I aimed for a quote that captured the essence of the video or a particularly poignant point. I considered the ` <blockquote>` tag.</li> </ul> <ul> <li><b>Task 6 (Queries):</b> I planned to actively monitor my understanding throughout the process. If I encountered any ambiguities, misspellings that I couldn't confidently correct, or unclear sections, I would note them down for the `<div class="kg-card kg-toggle-card" data-kg-toggle-state=close><div class=kg-toggle-heading><h4 class=kg-toggle-heading-text>🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand</h4><button class=kg-toggle-card-icon><svg id=Regular xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path class=cls-1 d="M23.25,7.311,12.53,18.03a.749.749,0,0,1-1.06,0L.75,7.311"/></svg></button></div><div class=kg-toggle-content><p><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"> ` section. If everything was clear, I would explicitly state "None".</li> </ul> <ol> <li><b>Execution and Refinement (Mental Simulation):</b> Before actually generating the output, I mentally simulated going through the transcript and performing each task. This helped me anticipate potential issues, like overlapping topics, deciding on the level of granularity for topic titles, and ensuring the timestamps aligned correctly with the topics. I also considered the order of operations: Task 1 first, then Task 2, then Task 3, then Task 4, then Task 5, and finally Task 6, as these are inherently dependent on each other.</li> </ol> <ol> <li><b>XML Structure Adherence:</b> I kept the provided XML structure example firmly in mind throughout the planning and execution stages. I double-checked the tag names and the overall order of elements to ensure the final output would be valid XML and meet the specified format. I paid special attention to closing tags matching opening tags.</li> </ol> <ol> <li><b>British English and Ukrainian Spellings:</b> I made a conscious effort to write in British English and to use correct Ukrainian spellings for place names. I knew this was a specific requirement and important for the project's context.</li> </ol> By following these structured steps, I aimed to methodically address each requirement of the prompt, ensuring accuracy, completeness, and adherence to the specified format and style, which led to the final XML output provided in the example. The thinking tags in the beginning were designed to explicitly document this planning stage as requested by the user. Essentially, my process was about: <b>Understand -> Plan -> Execute -> Verify</b>. The "thinking" tags were a way to make the "Plan" step explicit and transparent.</span></p></div></div></body></div> </div>