Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"He [Putin] also says that Russia is not going to attack NATO and calls stupid... those who are claiming otherwise. You are stupid... if you think that we're going to attack NATO."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-01:28⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He reminds viewers, and himself, that he will be giving a talk on the 15th of June in the Andover area of North Hampshire. He encourages viewers in that area of the UK to attend, noting that it's for a good cause: raising money for drones for Ukraine. Details can be found by emailing the address provided below.

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France to provide $700m in critical infrastructure support for Ukraine

🎦 01:28-01:45⏩

France will provide $700 million to support critical infrastructure projects in Ukraine. The focus will be on transportation and energy sectors, which have suffered significant damage from Russian attacks.

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US Democrats call for removal of restrictions on use of US weapons in Ukraine, including in Crimea

🎦 01:45-02:29⏩

Democrats in the US Congress are advocating for the removal of any limitations on Ukraine's use of American weapons, particularly concerning Crimea. Jonathan highlights that while ATACMS missiles are already being used in Crimea, the change signifies a shift in US restrictions. He then pivots to a discussion on the changing stance of Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who initially hindered the timely delivery of aid to Ukraine. Jonathan speculates that Johnson's recent expressions of support for Ukraine stem from a growing understanding of the situation and its implications for US interests.

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Jonathan's Political Analysis: Republicans should have gone "hard Reagan" on Ukraine Support

🎦 02:29-05:23⏩

Jonathan provides an analysis of the Republican party's stance on Ukraine, suggesting they missed an opportunity by not adopting a stronger pro-Ukraine stance, similar to Reagan's approach, which he argues could have helped them win the center ground and potentially the November elections. He believes that by criticizing the Biden administration for not being tough enough on Russia and providing more support to Ukraine, the Republicans could have swayed some voters who are unhappy with Trump's stance on the issue. He thinks it was a strategic miscalculation on the Republicans' part because Trump's stance on Ukraine is likely to alienate moderate Republicans and those who understand the geopolitical situation, while his core supporters will follow him regardless of his position.

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Ukraine urges US and Europe to accelerate F-16 pilot training program

🎦 05:23-06:51⏩

Ukraine is urging the US and Europe to expedite the F-16 fighter jet pilot training program. Citing a shortage of qualified pilots to operate the jets pledged by its allies, Ukraine claims it has 30 pilots ready for immediate training in the US. However, the US program, based in Arizona, currently only has the capacity for 12 trainees at a time, according to sources familiar with the matter. Similar capacity constraints exist in training facilities in Denmark and Romania. While acknowledging the US commitment to existing trainees, Jonathan emphasizes the urgency of expanding the program to accommodate Ukraine's needs.

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Estonia leads the way by passing a law to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's reconstruction, setting a precedent for other EU nations

🎦 06:51-09:56⏩

Estonia's parliament passed a law on 15th May allowing the use of frozen Russian assets to compensate Ukraine for damages caused by the war. While Estonia itself only holds an estimated €38 million ($41.3 million) in frozen Russian assets, the move is seen as symbolic and sets a precedent for other countries to follow. Jonathan lauds Estonia for its leadership, noting its commitment to supporting Ukraine extends to 3.5% of its GDP as of January 2023.

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EU's artillery ammunition production to surpass 1.7 million rounds by the end of 2024

🎦 09:56-11:53⏩

The EU is significantly increasing its artillery ammunition production, with a target of exceeding 1.7 million large-caliber rounds by the end of 2024, and aiming for 2.5 million in 2025. Jonathan acknowledges that the ramp-up has been slower than desired but emphasizes the complexity of rapidly scaling up such production. He highlights the various mechanisms for supplying these shells to Ukraine, including the European Peace Facility, bilateral donations from individual countries, and direct purchases from the EU's defense industry by Ukraine, with Spain being one example.

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Roshel, a Canadian armored vehicle manufacturer, to open a plant in Ukraine

🎦 11:53-13:22⏩

Roshel, a Canadian manufacturer of armored vehicles, is planning to establish a production plant in Ukraine. Jonathan notes the company's strong support for Ukraine, including the donation or provision of over a thousand Senator armored vehicles. He highlights that the company, run by an individual of Israeli descent whose wife is Ukrainian, employs many Ukrainian refugees in its Canadian facilities.

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First appearance of Dutch Cheetah SPAAG in Ukraine

🎦 13:22-15:36⏩

The Dutch Cheetah SPAAG (self-propelled anti-aircraft gun), an upgraded version of the German Gepard, has been spotted in Ukraine for the first time. The US purchased 60 Cheetahs from Jordan for Ukrainian use. Jonathan notes that the arrival of Cheetahs, alongside other air defense systems like Gepards, Manpads, Avengers, Stingers, and Stormers, significantly enhances Ukraine's air defense capabilities. He observes that Ukraine's air defense network is becoming more robust and integrated, effectively countering Russian threats. However, he emphasizes the ongoing challenge posed by ballistic missiles, such as the S-300, S-400, Iskander, and Kinzhal. Countering these threats requires advanced systems like Patriots and SAMP/Ts, which Ukraine possesses in limited quantities, highlighting a vulnerability in their defense.

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Ukraine could recruit up to 120,000 new personnel this year

🎦 15:36-16:36⏩

Ukraine is projected to recruit between 100,000 and 120,000 new military personnel this year, according to Ruslan Holbenko, deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Human Rights. This equates to approximately 10,000 new recruits per month, a figure that could potentially offset Ukrainian losses. While the exact number of Ukrainian casualties remains unknown, Jonathan emphasizes the significance of these recruitment figures in sustaining Ukraine's defense capabilities.

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French Prime Minister dismisses sending military instructors to Ukraine as a "taboo" and reiterates support for Ukraine

🎦 16:36-17:13⏩

French Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne has stated that deploying French military instructors to Ukraine is not a taboo subject. She emphasized that Russia's withdrawal of troops from Ukrainian territory is the only path to ending the war, Borne underscored France's unwavering support for Ukraine, citing the shared values of freedom and democracy as the driving force behind their assistance.

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Viktor Orbán: Hungary will not participate in NATO operations against Russia in Ukraine

🎦 17:13-18:07⏩

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has declared that Hungary will not partake in any NATO military operations against Russia in Ukraine. This statement, while expected given Hungary's stance, raises further questions about the country's commitment to its NATO and EU memberships. Jonathan questions whether a more assertive stance from both organizations, perhaps even implying potential consequences for Hungary's membership, might compel Orbán to reconsider his position.

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Putin's Press Conference: Nuclear Threats, Weapon Supply to Other Actors, and Accusations of Western Imperialism

🎦 18:07-22:13⏩

In a recent press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin made several noteworthy statements. Firstly, he suggested Russia might supply weapons to actors in other parts of the world, enabling them to strike countries providing military aid to Ukraine. Jonathan finds this threat hollow, especially given Russia's reliance on Iranian and North Korean weapons for use in Ukraine. Secondly, Putin claimed Russia would bolster its air defense systems in response to Ukraine's use of high-precision Western weapons. Jonathan expresses skepticism about Russia's ability to do so effectively. Thirdly, while accusing the West of exaggerating Russia's nuclear threats, Putin issued another veiled threat, stating that Russia would use "any measures we have" if its sovereignty or territorial integrity were threatened. He downplayed the significance of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, despite their yield of 70-75 kilotons. He went on to accuse the US of hypocrisy, claiming there's more theft in the US Army than in the Russian Army. He also stated that the US spends heavily on defense to maintain its "empire," a claim he contrasted with Russia's supposed lack of imperial ambitions. This is a point Jonathan strongly refutes, citing Putin's own pre-war essay which outlines his desire to emulate Peter the Great. Putin also asserted that Russia would not attack NATO, dismissing those who suggest otherwise as "stupid." He concluded his remarks with claims that Ukraine was suffering five times the casualties of Russia, suggesting Ukrainian monthly losses of 50,000. This, however, contradicts his earlier statement that Russia is losing 10,000 troops a month. Jonathan finds this discrepancy telling, as it suggests Russia's losses are far higher than previously acknowledged.

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Wrap up

🎦 22:13-22:57⏩

Jonathan encourages viewers to share their opinions on the topics discussed and reminds them to email if interested in attending his talk in Andover. He stresses the importance of supporting the cause of providing drones to Ukraine. Jonathan wraps up the video by thanking his viewers and bidding them farewell.

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