Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"You can't be pro-Kremlin and come out of it looking good. You're either paid up to be pro-Kremlin or you've got to that conclusion yourself, in which case you're a moral monster."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:40⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the Ukraine War News Update for 15th December 2023, mentioning Christmas is close and his decision to refrain from ranting today in favour of a more positive outlook regarding Ukraine.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Heavy Russian Losses
🎦 00:40-05:19⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses, noting significant figures: over 1,090 personnel, 14 tanks, and 38 APVs, suggesting ongoing Russian attacks in various locations, including Kupyansk and Svatove. He analyses the reported equipment losses, pointing out the absence of BMP-1s, indicating their depletion and replacement with newer variants. He observes an overall favourable loss ratio for Ukraine based on Andrew Perpetua's data.
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Putin Admits to Heavy Russian Losses in Telethon Gaffe
🎦 05:19-07:46⏩
Jonathan highlights Putin's accidental admission during a recent telethon that the Russian Army has suffered 360,000 casualties, a figure higher than Ukrainian reports. Putin's statement, revealing 617,000 troops currently at the front while acknowledging the deployment of 244,000 mobilized personnel, 486,000 volunteers, and a pre-existing army of 250,000, inadvertently confirms the scale of Russian losses, potentially exceeding even Ukrainian estimates.
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Ukraine Claims Responsibility for Voronezh Oil Depot Explosion
🎦 07:46-09:12⏩
Jonathan discusses the explosion at a Rosneft oil depot in Voronezh, Russia. Initially attributed to an accident, the Liberty of Russia Legion has claimed responsibility. Despite Russian authorities attempting to downplay the incident as a training exercise, Jonathan highlights its significance as a potential act of sabotage within Russia and its potential to challenge Russian stability if such incidents escalate.
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Fire at Russian Insulation Plant
🎦 09:12-09:58⏩
Jonathan reports a large fire at an insulation plant in Borovsky, Russia, covering 1,300 square meters. Although the fire was contained, Jonathan emphasises the regularity of such incidents in Russia, posing a continuous challenge for the authorities.
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Ukraine Downs 14 Iranian Shahed Drones
🎦 09:58-10:58⏩
Jonathan commends Ukraine's successful interception of all 14 Shahed drones launched by Russia. He attributes this success to Ukraine's increasing use of cost-effective, low-tech solutions like Gepards, MANPADS, and Avenger systems mounted on vehicles for drone defence, reserving higher-end systems for other threats.
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Conflicting Reports: Ukraine Hit by Russian Kinzhal Missiles
🎦 10:58-14:10⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent Kinzhal missile attacks on Ukraine, noting discrepancies between Ukrainian reports claiming the interception of three missiles and other sources suggesting a higher number of strikes. Citing sources, he reveals that the airbase at Starokostantiniv, potentially targeted due to its role in Ukrainian cruise missile launches, may have been hit multiple times by Kinzhal missiles, with the extent of the damage, particularly to aircraft, remaining unclear. Jonathan expresses concern over potential damage to aircraft and emphasises the need for Ukraine to protect these assets, highlighting that infrastructure damage is less critical as it can be repaired.
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Ukraine Retaliates: Explosions Reported in Mariupol and Crimea
🎦 14:10-15:33⏩
Jonathan covers Ukrainian strikes on Mariupol, particularly a concrete factory suspected of housing Russian troops. He also mentions potential Ukrainian activity in Crimea. Additionally, he notes reports of a Russian Shahed drone crashing in Romania, marking another incident where Russian actions have encroached on Romanian territory, though he acknowledges Romania's reluctance for direct escalation with Russia.
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BBC Exposes Massive Russian Disinformation Network on TikTok
🎦 15:33-21:37⏩
Jonathan praises the BBC for its investigative work in uncovering a vast Russian disinformation operation on TikTok. This operation, involving over 12,800 fake accounts, spreads disinformation about the war in Ukraine, particularly targeting Western support. Jonathan expresses his concerns about the impact of disinformation and misinformation, drawing parallels with individuals like Elon Musk, who he believes has been influenced by such narratives.
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Jonathan Addresses Pro-Kremlin Commenter "POMG"
🎦 21:37-25:16⏩
Jonathan addresses a pro-Kremlin commenter identified as "POMG", highlighting the futility of defending the Kremlin's actions and the inherent moral dilemma faced by those who support Russia. He argues that such individuals are either paid trolls or have independently reached a morally reprehensible stance by justifying Russia's war crimes. He cites POMG's attempts to deflect criticism by accusing Jonathan of "juvenile name-calling" and spreading misinformation about Zelensky's alleged lavish spending, which Jonathan dismisses as baseless claims propagated by Russian propaganda.
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Seymour Hersh and the Spread of Disinformation
🎦 25:16-32:17⏩
Jonathan delves into the dangers of disinformation by analysing a recent article by journalist Seymour Hersh, known for his controversial claims about the Nord Stream pipeline explosion. He dissects Hersh's writing style and use of language, specifically the informal way he refers to Putin compared to Biden, and an anonymous "American intelligence official" who makes claims supporting the Russian narrative. Jonathan scrutinises the official's language, which includes pro-Russian terminology and conspiracy theories about Hunter Biden, concluding that these are indicators of a Russian plant feeding disinformation to Hersh. He criticises Hersh for not questioning his source and warns about the wider implications of such disinformation influencing public opinion.
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Russian Military Video Shows Near Miss Between Su-25 and Grad Rockets
🎦 32:17-32:46⏩
Jonathan shares a Russian military video showcasing a near collision between a Russian Su-25 fighter jet and rockets fired from a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher, highlighting the dangers of operating in a combat zone.
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Putin Denies Using Body Doubles During Student Telethon
🎦 32:46-34:37⏩
Jonathan revisits Putin's recent telethon, where the Russian President denied using body doubles, despite evidence to the contrary. Jonathan presents a series of images highlighting the physical differences in Putin's appearance over time, suggesting the use of at least one, if not multiple, body doubles. He references analyses using artificial intelligence that support this theory.
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Putin Demands Ukraine's "Total Capitulation" as Precondition for Peace
🎦 34:37-36:21⏩
Jonathan addresses those advocating for peace negotiations, pointing out the futility of such efforts given Putin's recent statements demanding Ukraine's unconditional surrender. This demand, encompassing demilitarization, neutral status, and "denazification", essentially equates to a complete capitulation of Ukrainian sovereignty and a dismantling of its current government. Jonathan stresses the importance of recognizing Putin's stance when engaging in discussions about peace negotiations.
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Russia's "Door-to-Door Terror" in Occupied Ukraine
🎦 36:21-39:45⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of Russian forces conducting house-to-house raids in occupied Zaporizhzhia, forcing Ukrainian citizens to adopt Russian citizenship and confiscating property from those who refuse. He criticises Russia's crackdown on basic freedoms, including the prohibition of unauthorized gatherings and arrests for displaying signs critical of Putin's regime. Jonathan draws parallels between these actions and the earlier discussion about disinformation, urging viewers to reflect on the realities of life under Russian occupation and the erosion of fundamental rights.
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Wrap up
🎦 39:45-39:54⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his viewers for their continued support. He reiterates that he was aiming for a more polite and less ranty tone in this update.
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