Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"Ukrainians are bleeding and dying on the battlefield to preserve their democracy and freedom, and we will be bleeding and dying with our troops on the battlefield in Europe if we fail to give Ukraine what it needs, because Putin will keep going."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:15⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of the Ukraine War Update for 14 March 2024. Today's video will focus on military aid. Jonathan explains that he will be keeping the video concise as he has an orthotics appointment to attend.

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Pro-Ukrainian Russian Units Using US Bradleys

🎦 00:15-01:05⏩

Jonathan discusses further details about the use of Western equipment by Pro-Ukrainian Russian units operating within Russia, reporting the use of Bradley Fighting Vehicles by these groups in the Kursk region of Russia. He notes that there has been some debate surrounding the use of such equipment, but that he does not personally consider it to be controversial.

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US Discharge Petitions - Update

🎦 01:05-03:07⏩

Jonathan provides an update on the situation regarding the proposed US discharge petition, which is intended to force a vote on the $106 billion National Security Supplemental bill. He highlights that there are now two competing petitions: one led by the Democrats and one by the Republicans. The Democrat-led petition has encountered difficulties as 36 progressives within the party have withdrawn their support in protest of the inclusion of aid for Israel in the bill. Jonathan explains that 40 Republican signatures will now be required, something which is looking challenging. He notes that the Republican petition is even less favourable towards Ukraine and also includes aid for Israel. Jonathan expresses his frustration that, despite there being clear majority support for Ukraine in the House, the bill has yet to be put to a vote due to the actions of House Speaker Mike Johnson.

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US House Democrats Plead with Speaker to Put Ukraine Bill to Vote

🎦 03:07-06:06⏩

Jonathan reports that House Democrats have pleaded with House Speaker Mike Johnson to permit a vote on the Senate's foreign aid bill, which includes the aid package for Ukraine. He highlights the urgency of the situation in Ukraine, with lawmakers arguing that failure to provide adequate support will only embolden Putin and could even lead to the eventual deployment of US troops to Europe. He goes on to say that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also called on Johnson to allow the vote to proceed. Importantly, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has added his voice to those calling for a vote on the bill - a significant intervention given McConnell's influence. Jonathan reiterates his view that there is unquestionably a majority in the House in favour of supporting Ukraine, and expresses his frustration that a vote is not being allowed to take place. He briefly mentions that Republican Brian Fitzpatrick has put forward his own version of the bill, but expresses doubt that this will be successful.

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Impact on US Artillery Production

🎦 06:06-08:13⏩

Jonathan reports that, due to the failure to pass the $106 billion National Security Supplemental, the US Army will be forced to reduce its artillery production target by over 25%. He notes that the Army's target was to reach 100,000 artillery rounds per month by the end of 2025, but that this will be impossible to achieve without the bill being passed. Jonathan explains that $3 billion of the Supplemental was earmarked for the procurement of 155mm artillery shells and the construction of new production facilities, both domestically and abroad. He goes on to describe the impact this is having on Ukraine's ability to sustain its defence, noting that the Ukrainians are now down to firing less than 2,000 artillery rounds per day (compared with 6,000 per day last summer), while researchers estimate that they need to fire at least 75,000 rounds per month to maintain their defensive operations. Jonathan concludes by highlighting the fact that Russia is out-producing both the US and the EU when it comes to artillery ammunition, thereby posing a serious challenge to Ukraine and its allies.

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Impact on US Military Aid to Ukraine

🎦 08:13-09:32⏩

Jonathan reports that the hold-up with the US aid bill is also having other serious consequences, such as the Ukrainians being forced to resort to "cannibalising" their existing equipment for spare parts. He states that, due to a lack of components and maintenance support, Ukrainians are now having to cannibalise eight damaged M777 howitzers in order to repair a single one. This is compounded by the fact that Ukraine's own domestic production is unable to meet the shortfall, meaning that the Ukrainians are becoming increasingly reliant on the trickle of equipment and munitions being supplied by the West. Jonathan cites a study which argues that the current front line is likely not stable and that a Russian breakthrough is possible. This is partly due to the fact that Ukraine has been forced to ration ammunition - particularly artillery shells - and prioritise its allocation based on operational necessity.

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Lithuania Considers Sending Troops to Ukraine

🎦 09:32-11:04⏩

Jonathan reports that Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has backed calls for a debate on the potential deployment of troops to Ukraine. Although Nausėda stresses the need for this to be a unanimous decision, the statement represents a significant development given that, to date, only non-combat troops have been deployed to Ukraine by NATO states. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has also waded into the debate, refusing to guarantee that Estonia will not send troops to Ukraine at some point in the future. While she clarifies that there have never been any discussions about deploying ground combat forces to Ukraine, she also states that the situation is fluid and that Russia's actions represent a direct threat to Estonia. Kallas concludes by saying that Estonia has made it's position on the conflict very clear, reiterating the point that the country views Russia as a direct threat.

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ATACMS Update

🎦 11:04-14:17⏩

Jonathan provides an update on the delivery of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, following rumours that they would be included in the latest $300 million aid package from the US. He clarifies that, although this latest package is separate from the $6 billion package announced previously, ATACMS do not appear to have been included, although shorter-range variants may have been supplied. Jonathan reiterates his previous assertion that Biden is unlikely to have played a personal role in blocking the transfer of ATACMS, suggesting instead that military considerations are behind the delay. He speculates that the US military's impending switch to the new Precision Strike Missile (PRISM) may be a factor, arguing that, prior to PRISM coming online, the US may have been reluctant to part with its existing stocks of ATACMS in case it needed them for a crisis elsewhere in the world, such as Taiwan. Now that PRISM is entering production, however, he believes it is more likely that ATACMS will be provided to Ukraine. In support of this view, Jonathan cites a recent Wall Street Journal article which suggests that the US is now ready to transfer longer-range ATACMS to Ukraine.

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German Military Aid

🎦 14:17-15:57⏩

Jonathan praises Germany for the significant contribution it is making to Ukraine’s war effort, both in terms of military equipment and financial aid. He cites a Twitter thread which highlights the range of German equipment being used by the Ukrainians, including DM-121 40mm fragmentation grenades, HKG and W grenades, and Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks, amongst others. Jonathan points out that Germany has already delivered 26 VIesel 1 mine-clearing tanks to Ukraine, with a further 16 pledged, as well as 18 Leopard 2A6 tanks. He concludes by saying that, although Germany has faced criticism in recent times for its perceived hesitancy over the provision of Taurus missiles, it is important to remember the significant contribution the country is making to Ukraine's defence.

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Ukraine Prisoner Parole Bill

🎦 15:57-17:09⏩

Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian parliament has introduced a bill which would see prisoners granted parole in exchange for military service. He acknowledges that, while this may seem like a challenging prospect at first glance, it is important to remember that not all prisoners are guilty of violent crimes. He points out that many prisoners will have been convicted of white collar offences, such as fraud or tax evasion, and could be suitable for frontline service. Furthermore, Jonathan argues that many serving soldiers will have spent time in prison prior to joining the military, suggesting that integration of former prisoners should not pose a significant challenge.

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New Russian Glide Bomb

🎦 17:09-17:38⏩

Jonathan reports that Russia appears to have deployed a new, small-diameter, glide bomb to Ukraine. This weapon is reported to be capable of both air and ground launch, and is said to pose a potential challenge to Ukraine. Jonathan acknowledges that he does not yet have detailed information on this new weapon, but says that it is something to watch out for in the coming days and weeks.

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Wrap Up

🎦 17:38-18:16⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support, and expresses his gratitude to his members and his community for their contributions. He encourages viewers to like, subscribe and share the video to help the channel grow, before signing off.

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