Ukraine War Update NEWS
Table of Contents 📖
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"If you can have this destructive firepower rain down on a place like Novopropivka, then that will allow your troops to overrun that much more easily."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war news for 16th October 2023. He mentions that he did a video the previous night covering most of what he will discuss. He also contacted JR who was still updating the map as Jonathan was recording his frontline update.
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Ukrainian General Staff Figures for Russian Losses
- 860 Russian personnel losses, which is a very high number
- 17 tanks lost in one day, which would be devastating for most armies
- 23 armoured personnel vehicles lost
- 44 artillery systems lost
- 1 aircraft and 1 helicopter shot down
- 11 drones, 22 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 5 pieces of special equipment lost
Andrew Perpetua's Mapping of Losses
Andrew Perpetua, a mapper who looks at video feeds to identify losses, shows a 4 to 1 loss ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses. For the Russians, he identified the loss of:
- 1 Mi-8 helicopter
- 1 electronic warfare system
- Some artillery pieces including multiple launch rocket systems
- 7 tanks (1 T-90, a couple T-80s and some unknown)
- 2 IFVs
- Some trucks and civilian vehicles
For the Ukrainians, the losses were much lower: 1 tank, 1 MT-LB APC, and 1 Humvee.
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Mi-8 Helicopter Shot Down
There is video footage of the Mi-8 helicopter that was shot down by the 24th Airborne Brigade of Ukraine in Ryarodka, which is in the northeastern sector near Novoherivka where the Russians had made some gains.
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Zala Unit Destroyed by HIMARS
A Zala drone unit was identified and then destroyed by a HIMARS strike. The video shows the drone operators retrieving the drone, and then the building they are in is targeted and destroyed by the HIMARS. Jonathan discusses whether the cost of the HIMARS missile was worth it to take out this drone unit.
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Russian Shelling of Zaporizhzhia Region
The Russians are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, with 134 strikes reported at 23 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region according to the head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration.
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Ukrainian Air Defence
Last night, Ukrainian air defence forces destroyed 2 out of 5 Kh-59 missiles (so 3 got through) and 11 out of 12 Shahed drones. The Russians also launched an Onyx missile which was not shot down. So while the Ukrainians had some success, there were still 4 missiles that likely struck their targets and caused issues.
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Significant Explosion in Novopropivka
There was a significant explosion in Novopropivka, which the Ukrainian Air Force claims was from them dropping 8-10 500lb GBU-38 JDAMs or GBU-39 250lb small diameter bombs. Jonathan discusses how this kind of concentrated destructive firepower is exactly what the Ukrainians need to be doing to win the attritional war and allow their troops to overrun Russian positions more easily. He compares it to the Russians using their own FAB-500 or FAB-1500 bombs. Some commenters suggest it could have been an MLRS strike or TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS instead.
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Frontline Update
- Small Russian gain in the northeastern sector in a tree line
- Some Russian gains north of Bakhmut around Mykolaivka according to pro-Russian mapper Syriac Maps
- Pretty significant Ukrainian gains east of the railway south of Bakhmut
- Possible back and forth around Kodema
- Ukrainian gains in the northern Avdiivka sector towards Oleksandropil according to Andrew Perpetua and Syriac Maps
- Small Russian gains along railway north of Krasnohorivka and west of Donetsk airport
- Claims of Ukrainian pushback east of Novopropivka and around Vuhledar
- Radu Hosu claims Ukrainians are widening the salient towards Novopropivka and Polohy, with advances towards Kopani and west of Robotyne
Avdiivka Offensive Analysis
Andrew Perpetua analyzed the shelling around Avdiivka and found it was not as heavy as would be expected if the scale of Russian assaults claimed were true. He suggests the main Russian effort may actually have been around Novomykhailivka instead. Radu Hosu believes the Avdiivka sector will turn into a "Russian shredding machine" like Bakhmut was for the Ukrainians. The Russian offensive seems more like a political objective than a sound military one and is devastating for their forces.
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South of Bakhmut Update
According to Dmitry from War Translators, Ukrainian forces are pushing Russian defensive positions south of Bakhmut and establishing themselves behind the railway line near Andriivka and Klishchivka. Russian command in the area is said to be poor. The former commander, Lt. Gen. Andrei Suchevoi, allegedly lost 1500 men killed and wounded just in September before being removed from his position.
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Budanov Forces Russian Surrenders
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence, reportedly forced 19 Russians to surrender as prisoners of war just by talking to them on the radio during a special operation. A Ukrainian special forces commander said the Russian assault group realized they could no longer resist and tried to leave the area, but Budanov convinced them to surrender. He is becoming a legendary figure for Ukrainians.
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Wrap up
Jonathan will try to get a second video out soon. He also plans to start a series on his philosophical channel looking at the Israel-Hamas conflict from a nuanced perspective, as he sees valid concerns on both sides but a lot of people taking hardline stances. He thinks it's a complex issue that shouldn't be oversimplified.
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