Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"I am an aggregator. Make of this what you will. I'm not saying this is gospel truth but I am fairly sure in my own mind that the things I claim are true and when I am not 100% sure I will let you know."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is back on his ATP Geopolitics channel after a week-long suspension. He reminds viewers to take everything he says with a pinch of salt, check sources, and that he is an aggregator relaying information from other sources. Not everything can be verified as 100% true but he believes most of what he shares to be accurate, and will indicate when unsure.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
According to Ukrainian figures, Russian losses for the previous day included 715 personnel, 2 tanks, 20 APCs, 5 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 3 drones and 7 vehicles. The higher number of APCs lost aligns with video footage and claims of them being taken out around Avdiivka in the Kremlin area and Vukodar.
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Long-Range Missiles
- Explosions were reported near Bakhchisarai in Crimea, about 230km from the front line. The impact suggests a significant warhead was used, not a drone.
- Ukraine is using guided rockets called Vilka-M with more range (110km) and a much larger 300mm/485lb warhead compared to HIMARS. About 100 units have been produced so far, first used in May 2022.
- Plans are underway to modify the Vilka-M to boost range to 150km. The new variants will be tested in combat, likely in time for the widely anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south towards Mariupol and the Azov Sea.
- The extended range Vilka-M would have similar range to the US GLSDB but with a much larger warhead and higher kinetic punch, useful against bridges, large structures and heavy fortifications.
Mariupol Attacks
The occupied city of Mariupol was hit on successive nights last week, about 50 miles from nearest Ukrainian units. While GLSDB was suspected, it's possible the Vilka-M missiles were used in these attacks. Ukraine may be using these to shape the battlefield around Mariupol in advance of the anticipated southern counter-offensive.
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Belarusian A-50 AWACS
The Belarusian MOD published an undated video showing an A-50 AWACS at the Machulishchy airbase, in response to claims by a Belarusian partisan group that they damaged one with drones. Satellite imagery shows potential damage but is inconclusive so far. The attack remains unconfirmed.
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Strikes and Attacks
- A strike, thought to be on Russian occupiers, took place in Polohy between Zaporizhzhia and Mariupol with fuel burning.
- Ukrainian commandos destroyed 6 Russian tanks in one night in the Luhansk region after drone strikes.
- S-300 missiles were used in a ground attack on Zaporizhzhia overnight, killing 3 and injuring 11 civilians. Elderly people were pulled from damaged residential buildings. Using the inaccurate S-300 this way is arguably a war crime.
Military Aid
- Slovakia is considering sending 10 of its 11 retired MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine after a direct request from Zelenskyy.
- The elected Czech president, former NATO commander Petr Pavel, said Ukraine should get fighter jets within 6 months as part of a long-term aviation transfer.
- Unconfirmed reports claim the French Air Force is ready to train Ukrainian pilots on Mirage 2000C jets in Poland and possibly sell 12 of them.
- Ukraine received 2 more H125 helicopters as part of a pre-war order.
- Ukrainian troops are undergoing artillery training in Estonia on 155mm and 122mm howitzers to reconstitute depleted forces.
- Spain is completing repairs on Leopard 2A4 tanks for Ukraine.
- France is increasing shell purchases for CAESAR howitzers it is transferring to Ukraine. Large orders will also be placed for 155mm shells, anti-tank systems and Mistral missiles.
- Germany is boosting ammunition production and repair capacity to support Ukraine.
- Serbia delivered 3,500 missiles for Grad MLRS to Ukraine.
- Sweden provided 4 boats and 14 pontoon sections for river crossings, important for moving tanks and equipment.
Kerch Bridge Repairs
Significant repairs are underway on the Kerch Bridge connecting Russia and Crimea after the October explosion. The road bridge reopened last month but a damaged rail span has now been removed, likely to replace the underlying expanded polystyrene layer and rubber bearings between the girders and piers. Repairs could take until July. In the meantime, ferry traffic has increased. Jonathan speculates if Ukraine's new longer-range Vilka-M missiles might be able to hit the bridge in the future.
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South Korean Weapons
South Korea, a growing arms exporter, remains reluctant to provide Ukraine with weapons according to the Ukrainian ambassador in Seoul. South Korea can produce good quality weapons cheaply at scale and allows buyers to manufacture under license. However, they have not yet agreed to arm Ukraine, possibly due to existing order commitments to countries like Poland.
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Geopolitics - Left and Right Appeasement
In the UK, former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn maintains his anti-war stance, saying as PM he would not have sent materiel to Ukraine and would have insisted on finding a peaceful end to the conflict. In the US, Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene expressed similar views, claiming "America is driving the war" and "needs to stop pushing it." Jonathan argues appeasing Russia like this is dangerous geopolitically. With the US withdrawal from Afghanistan creating a power vacuum, China and Russia are expanding influence in Eurasia and Central Asia. If the US pursues isolationism as the far-left and right seem to advocate, it will enable a significant global power shift that China can exploit. He believes the West needs to remain strong and consistent in backing Ukraine, or it will embolden China's ambitions. The US is notifying allies about possible sanctions on China if it provides military support to Russia, reflecting the wider geopolitical stakes beyond Ukraine itself. China is watching the outcome closely.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and well-wishes on his return to the ATP Geopolitics channel. He appreciates several individuals who have been consistently supportive.
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