Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"It blows my mind that in this supposed shining beacon of democracy, one Nedwell can dictate what happens in US politics."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:17⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. This is Part 2 of the Ukraine War News Update for 29/02/2024. This part will focus on equipment, military and other aid.

Return to top⤴️

USA's $4 Billion Ukraine Funding Announcement

🎦 00:17-05:51⏩

Jonathan discusses the Biden Administration's announcement that the Pentagon is considering using the remaining $4 billion of Presidential Drawdown Authority for Ukraine. Jonathan explains how the Presidential Drawdown Authority works, highlighting the complexities of this type of funding. He hypothesises that the funding could be used for older items from US stockpiles without requiring immediate funding for their replacement. He also questions the timing of the release of these funds, suggesting the Biden administration may have been trying to use the situation to pressure Republicans in Congress to approve the $60 billion aid package. He expresses his disappointment with House Speaker Mike Johnson's stance on the aid package.

Return to top⤴️

Finland's Unrestricted Arms Aid

🎦 05:51-07:06⏩

Jonathan reports that Finland has not placed restrictions on the use of its weapons in Ukraine, meaning Ukraine could potentially use them on Russian soil. He emphasises the significance of this decision and expresses hope that other nations will follow suit. Jonathan also notes that Finland has remained secretive about the specific military aid it has provided.

Return to top⤴️

Debate over Western Troops and Macron's Comments

🎦 07:06-09:15⏩

Jonathan discusses comments by Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, who stated that the deployment of Western troops to Ukraine should not be ruled out. Jonathan expresses his agreement with Kallas and Macron's stance, arguing that it's crucial to keep all options open and send a strong signal to Russia. He criticises the misinterpretation and negative reactions to Macron's comments by some European leaders and the media. Jonathan argues that Western military personnel could assist with logistics, maintenance, and humanitarian efforts, allowing more Ukrainians to engage in combat roles. He cites Hamish DeBretton-Gordon, a former tank commander and military analyst, who shares this view.

Return to top⤴️

Czech Republic's Initiative to Supply Artillery Rounds

🎦 09:15-11:02⏩

Jonathan highlights the Czech Republic's initiative to supply Ukraine with 800,000 artillery rounds, requiring significant funding to procure them from countries like Turkey, South Africa, and India. He welcomes Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo's announcement of a €200 million contribution to this initiative, joining other countries like the UK, Netherlands, Denmark, Canada, and Sweden. Jonathan commends Belgium's support for Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

US and European Ammunition Production

🎦 11:02-14:20⏩

Jonathan cites a tweet thread from Shashank Joshi, referencing Paul McCleary, discussing Czech Defence Policy Chief, Jand Jireš's comments that the European defence industry is now outperforming the US in certain areas. Jireš states that Rheinmetall in Germany is producing more 155mm artillery shells than the entire US defence industry. Whilst acknowledging Rheinmetall's increased production, Jonathan questions the accuracy of this statement, suggesting that the US has also significantly ramped up its production of artillery shells. A comment from a viewer (not named) argues that by April 2024, US production of 155mm shells will reach 432,000 per year, increasing to 720,000 by the year's end, surpassing Rheinmetall's projected output. Jonathan uses this discussion to highlight the advantages of state-run defence industries in terms of their ability to rapidly increase production in response to urgent needs, contrasting this with the private sector's reliance on long-term contracts and profitability.

Return to top⤴️

Rheinmetall's Plans for an Ammunition Factory in Ukraine

🎦 14:20-14:49⏩

Jonathan reports that Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer, is actively searching for a location to establish a 155mm artillery shell factory in Ukraine. He states that once a location is secured and construction begins, production of artillery shells is expected to start within 12 to 15 months. Jonathan views this as a positive step towards boosting Ukraine's indigenous ammunition production capacity in the long term.

Return to top⤴️

Germany's Supply of Caracal Air Mobile Platforms

🎦 14:49-15:54⏩

Germany will be financing a further 20 Caracal air-mobile platforms to Ukraine, according to a report by ES&T. These jeep-like vehicles can be transported by helicopter and are expected to be used by Ukrainian special forces. This follows the financing of five Caracals by Germany in November 2023. Jonathan notes that it can sometimes be difficult to ascertain who is ultimately financing equipment being sent to Ukraine, as it may be financed directly by Ukraine but with funds provided by other countries.

Return to top⤴️

Delivery of F-16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine

🎦 15:54-17:22⏩

Jonathan discusses the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. He notes that the arrival of these aircraft will be gradual and dependent on several factors, including the availability of replacement aircraft for NATO countries transitioning to the more modern F-35. Jonathan cites Bloomberg, reporting that Ukraine aims to hold its front lines until the second half of the year, when they expect to receive F-16s and benefit from increased Western ammunition production. This strategy suggests that Ukraine may be planning another counteroffensive in 2025. Jonathan reiterates his belief that Ukraine's long-term position is stronger than Russia's in terms of equipment and support, prompting Russia to try and undermine democracies that support Ukraine and potentially install more sympathetic regimes. He argues that this reinforces the urgency for Russia to achieve its objectives on the battlefield.

Return to top⤴️

UK to Send Demining Equipment

🎦 17:22-18:45⏩

Jonathan announces that the UK will be sending a new type of demining equipment to Ukraine: an armoured mine and route clearance vehicle known as the MW370 or Mine Wolf.

Return to top⤴️

Capabilities of F-16s Provided to Ukraine

🎦 18:45-19:40⏩

Jonathan discusses the capabilities of the F-16 fighter jets that will be provided to Ukraine. Quoting a tweet thread by Shashank Joshi, who references a report by the Royal United Services Institute, Jonathan reveals that the Ukrainians will receive older variants of the F-16. While these aircraft will be upgraded with improved radar capabilities, they will lack advanced avionics software, sensors, and the most advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, which will not be supplied until 2026. Jonathan expresses disappointment that the West often provides Ukraine with older, less capable equipment and advocates for providing Ukraine with the best possible resources to hasten the war's end.

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine's Ambassador to Australia Appeals for Increased Aid

🎦 19:40-20:16⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine's Ambassador to Australia, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, made a presentation to Australian Ministry of Defence representatives. Myroshnychenko appealed for more military aid for Ukraine, including tanks, Typhan helicopters, Bushmaster infantry mobility vehicles, and a reassessment of how Australia delivers aid to Ukraine. Jonathan expresses hope that Australia will respond positively to Ukraine's request.

Return to top⤴️

Financial Aid for Ukraine

🎦 20:16-20:37⏩

Jonathan provides an update on financial aid to Ukraine:

• Ukraine has received $760 million in grants from Norway and Japan to support the state budget and social payments.
• Lithuania has allocated €300,000 to assist Ukrainian refugees.

Jonathan expresses his gratitude for the support shown by Norway, Japan, and Lithuania.

Return to top⤴️

Russia Deploys Su-57 Fighter Jet in Ukraine

🎦 20:37-22:11⏩

Jonathan reports that Russia has deployed its latest Su-57 fighter jet, considered a fifth-generation aircraft, in combat operations in eastern Ukraine. He notes that this marks a rare instance of Russia using this advanced jet in the conflict. On February 18th, an Su-57, escorted by two Su-35 jets, launched a missile strike on Ukrainian positions. Sources suggest the Su-57 may have used the Kh-69 stealthy cruise missile, specifically designed for this aircraft type. However, Jonathan mentions that the missile missed its target due to a technical malfunction and crashed in a field. Jonathan expresses concern over the location of the Russian airbase, suggesting it's within range of ATACMS missiles and questions why it hasn't been targeted.

Return to top⤴️

Russian Forces Using Starlink Systems

🎦 22:11-23:05⏩

Jonathan discusses the issue of Russian forces using Starlink satellite internet systems in Ukraine. He acknowledges that Russia is using Starlink, but questions how they are accessing it, given that it is supposed to be geo-fenced in certain areas. Jonathan notes that while Starlink can be geo-fenced off near the front lines, preventing both Ukrainian and Russian forces from using it, it remains accessible in areas like Crimea and Luhansk. This raises concerns about potential sanctions violations and the implications of Elon Musk's control over Starlink's accessibility. Jonathan expresses astonishment at the situation.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap up

🎦 23:05-23:21⏩

Jonathan concludes the video by announcing that he will be recording a separate video on the geopolitical aspects of the war. He teases an upcoming discussion on Australian TV featuring Malcolm Turnbull, the former Prime Minister of Australia, which includes some interesting quotes that he plans to share with his viewers.

Return to top⤴️