Ukraine War Live Stream Geopolitical News Update
Table of Contents 📖
"This has been an absolute learning experience for us all. And I think well done to us for engaging in what I think is incredibly important for us all, for the future of the world and obviously for the future of Ukraine."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-03:07⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Friday night live stream, explaining his partner's absence (work Christmas do) and his recent trip to Lidl for Ukrainian white wine (and Georgian Saperavi as they were out of Ukrainian red). He apologises for the high volume of content posted that day.
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Zaporizhzhia missile strike
🎦 03:07-04:56⏩
News of a terrible Russian missile strike on Zaporizhzhia with civilian casualties (burning cars, severed limbs, children covered in blood). Jonathan juxtaposes this with Tucker Carlson's platforming of Russian terrorists (including an interview with Sergey Lavrov) and expresses his disgust at the spread of Russian myths and lies.
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Norway approves sale of Russian stocks
🎦 04:56-06:12⏩
Norway's $1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund (funded by North Sea oil) has been granted permission to sell off its Russian stocks, provided transactions comply with international sanctions. Jonathan notes the sensible approach Norway took to oil revenue compared to the UK.
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Zelenskyy and Meloni discuss military aid and air defence
🎦 06:12-06:41⏩
Zelenskyy and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni discussed the battlefield situation, military support, and agreed to increase the supply of air defence systems to Ukraine.
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Serbia to extend gas contract with Russia
🎦 06:41-07:08⏩
Serbia is negotiating with Russia to extend its gas supply contract (expiring in March). Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin stated they aim for similar volumes as the current Gazprom agreement and will fulfil all agreed payments. Jonathan expresses sarcasm about Serbia's "strong ties" with Moscow.
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Orbán on US role in war and Trump's potential impact
🎦 07:08-08:10⏩
Viktor Orbán stated that the US plays a decisive role in the war, suggesting it would have ended long ago without US involvement. He implies a change with Trump taking office, indicating his belief that Ukraine should have lost. Jonathan criticises Orbán's stance and its implications for future US aid.
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Trump administration and Ukraine policy
🎦 08:10-09:51⏩
Jonathan discusses the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's Ukraine policy. He speculates they are currently being briefed on the situation, given their previous negative opinions (influenced by figures like Donald Trump Jr., Elon Musk, and Marjorie Taylor Greene). He notes Trump's silence on the matter and suggests a possible shift in their approach.
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Hungary: Alleged spying on EU officials and potential loss of funding
🎦 09:51-11:19⏩
Reports suggest Hungarian intelligence agencies spied on EU anti-fraud officials (following, wiretapping, hacking laptops). Jonathan notes Hungary's unpopularity within the EU and this will likely exacerbate calls for reprimands/expulsion. Hungary is also on the brink of losing €1 billion in EU funding due to Orbán's rule of law breaches unless 17 measures are implemented by 31/12. Jonathan approves of the EU's stance.
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Hungary: Orbán's blackmailing tactics regarding EU budget
🎦 11:19-12:56⏩
Orbán plans to block the next EU budget unless Hungary receives previously blocked funds (frozen over rule of law and corruption concerns). Jonathan sees this as further evidence of Orbán's detrimental influence within the EU and hopes opposition leader Péter Márki-Zay gains support.
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EU fails to approve 15th sanctions package against Russia
🎦 12:56-14:31⏩
The EU failed to approve the 15th sanctions package (including an extension for Czechia's Russian oil imports via Slovakia). Two member states (potentially Hungary and Slovakia) blocked it over disagreements about investment withdrawal deadlines. The package may still be revised and implemented by 24/02/2025.
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Hungary: Political messaging in mobile apps
🎦 14:31-17:14⏩
A user comment describes pervasive political ads in mobile apps in Hungary, all starting with the same anti-Zelenskyy/anti-Péter Márki-Zay message. The ads are linked to a pro-Fidesz Facebook page, highlighting the use of taxpayer money for propaganda. Jonathan discusses the importance of social media and advertising regulations (comparing UK regulations).
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UK political advertising regulations and social media
🎦 17:14-19:48⏩
Jonathan discusses Elon Musk's potential $100m investment in Reform UK (suggested by his father). He contrasts TV advertising regulations in the UK with the lack of social media regulation and expresses concern over Musk's right-wing populist leanings and attempts to influence elections globally.
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Poland: Threat to close Russian consulates
🎦 19:48-21:31⏩
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated he will close remaining Russian consulates in Poland if Russian sabotage/terrorist acts continue. Jonathan praises Sikorski's rhetoric and strong stance. He recommends Anne Applebaum's book Autocracy, Inc., noting its relevance to his recent discussions on democratic backsliding.
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Malta's position at the OSCE conference
🎦 21:31-23:16⏩
A user comment prompted Jonathan to acknowledge Malta's role in the recent OSCE conference where several nations walked out during Lavrov's speech. The user expressed pride in Malta's foreign minister, Ian Borg, for telling the Russians to leave Ukraine.
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Community comments and thanks
🎦 23:16-25:08⏩
Jonathan engages with comments, thanking users (Chris, Ronnie Brankin, HBG of Politics for an Atheist, Johnny, Benny Pye, JR, Richard Demme, Ozzy T), responding to jokes about ranting, and mentioning Andrew Perpetua's map updates. A comment from Pantalones Grandes suggests doubling down on Ukraine support would finish Russia.
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Biden's "accidental" degradation of Russia
🎦 25:08-29:27⏩
Jonathan discusses Biden's drip-feeding of aid to Ukraine, speculating it was unintentional (due to fear of escalation) rather than a deliberate strategy to degrade Russia. However, the protracted war has significantly weakened Russia (militarily, economically, demographically), albeit at the cost of Ukrainian lives and societal damage. He emphasizes Russia is now at a precipice.
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Concerns about Trump administration's potential actions
🎦 29:27-30:53⏩
Jonathan reiterates the crucial moment to double down on Ukraine support, fearing the Trump administration might lift sanctions and allow Russia to recover. He believes Trump's decisions are motivated by self-interest rather than political understanding, though he acknowledges Trump might make the right decision accidentally.
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Hungary: Information black hole
🎦 30:53-31:35⏩
A comment highlights Hungary's role as an information black hole, with shared intelligence ending up in the Kremlin. Jonathan confirms NATO and other nations have restricted information sharing with Hungary and Slovakia due to this.
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Trump's potential reaction to Putin criticism
🎦 31:35-33:36⏩
A comment suggests Trump might sense Putin's weakness. Jonathan hopes criticism of Trump's perceived closeness to Putin might provoke a stronger reaction against Russia due to Trump's thin skin and sensitivity to criticism. He illustrates this with a Trump rally quote about preferring praise over criticism.
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Syria: Assad regime's potential fall and Russian involvement
🎦 33:36-38:31⏩
Jonathan discusses the rebel advances in Syria, including the capture of Aleppo, Hama, and the approach to Homs, noting Russian propagandist Kots admitted Russia's limited support for Assad (primarily airstrikes). The rapid rebel movement hinders Russian airstrike effectiveness. Reports indicate Assad and family have fled to Moscow, his chief propagandist to Dubai, and the Russian embassy advised nationals to leave Syria. Jonathan discusses the implications of Russia losing influence in Syria, highlighting the potential for redeployed resources to Ukraine, while acknowledging Russia also loses money and equipment there.
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Georgia: Protests and potential interview with Marika Mikhiashvili
🎦 38:31-40:02⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Georgia, expressing a desire to interview Marika Mikhiashvili about the situation. He mentions Ukraine's sanctioning of Georgian Dream and Tbilisi mayor Kakha Kaladze losing two Kyiv apartments.
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Romania: Anti-Georgiescu protests
🎦 40:02-40:10⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions anti-Georgiescu sentiment in Romania (pre-election annulment) but acknowledges this is off-topic.
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Georgia: Protests and government crackdown
🎦 40:10-46:40⏩
Activists disrupted the public service hall in Georgia, demanding a strike. Jonathan discusses the need for stronger action than peaceful protest, recalling his own student strike experience. He analyses the potential outcomes of escalating protests in Georgia (brutal crackdown vs. tipping point). Reports suggest dissent within the police, including resignations. A list of riot police involved in cracking down on pro-EU protests was leaked, leading to officers checking their phones. Jonathan notes rising anger over arrests and beatings of high-profile figures. Jane Keough's comment highlights a "bad week for Putin" with setbacks in Syria and Georgia alongside the ongoing Ukraine war. Jonathan expresses concern over potential government restrictions on protests.
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Trump's nominees and their implications
- Potential Zelenskyy-Trump meeting in Paris at the opening of Notre Dame Cathedral.
- Concerns over Trump nominee Pete Hegseth for the Department of Defence, given his anti-Ukraine stance, sexual misconduct allegations, and financial mismanagement of previous veterans' organisations. Jonathan questions Hegseth's suitability for managing a $900bn budget.
- Julia Davis reported that Putin's allies believe Tucker Carlson is acting as a back channel to Trump.
- Concern over Tulsi Gabbard's nomination for director of national intelligence, given reports of her consuming and sharing Kremlin propaganda (RT articles) even after being advised of its unreliability. Nearly 100 former US diplomats and officials urged Senate hearings on Gabbard's appointment, questioning her impartiality.
Starlink, David Sachs and Crypto
- Ukrainian group opposes Starlink expansion due to Musk's Russia ties. Jonathan expresses his dislike for David Sachs (appointed by Trump as White House AI and crypto czar), a fierce critic of Ukraine. He notes the "South African tech bro" connection (Thiel, Sachs, Musk).
- A user comment suggests Putin is pushing crypto bros to undermine the US dollar, but Jonathan questions this, noting Trump's pro-dollar stance and ignorance of crypto.
Wrap up
🎦 01:10:29-01:36:58⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support, acknowledges JR's help with comments, and discusses Musk's lack of relevant qualifications. He emphasizes his own epistemic humility and autodidactic approach. He responds to comments (Robert McKay) about BBC World Service, defending its role in global news dissemination and highlighting its collaboration with Mediazona on casualty counts. He responds to another Syria comment and shares Melbourne backpacking anecdotes. He closes by thanking viewers, expressing his appreciation for the community, and offering a final "Slava Ukraini."
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