Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"The West doesn't have a monopoly on such things and in any case, much of this stuff is relatively simple engineering - even the US started somewhere."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - Ukraine War News update, the third part for 1st January 2025. He's had to restart his computer as his microphone wasn't working properly.

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Rumours of downed Russian helicopter - shot down by Russian Air Defences

🎦 00:21-00:33⏩
Jonathan reports rumours that a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter has been shot down by Russian air defences.

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Three Russian helicopters downed in as many days and the impact on experienced crew

🎦 00:33-00:54⏩
If the rumours about the downed Mi-28NM are true, this means that Russia has lost three helicopters in three days, all to friendly fire. Jonathan observes that this is good news for the Ukrainians, especially the loss of experienced crew which are much harder to replace than the airframes.

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Two hundred new Ukrainian pilots to be trained to fly F-16s after training in UK and France

🎦 00:54-02:31⏩
Two hundred new Ukrainian pilots have completed basic flight and language training in the UK and will begin training on F-16s. Jonathan notes that this is good news but Ukraine won't be getting the 160 F-16s they asked for. A small number of the less than 100 they will be getting will be used for spare parts. Jonathan observes that retraining existing pilots from Soviet legacy equipment isn't easy and new pilots are preferred. The new pilots will train on the Alpha Jet (France) after completing basic flight training (UK). Training on the Mirage and F-16s will take place in Romania and the USA. Jonathan notes that this is a good start and questions how many pilots there are per aircraft.

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France doubles production of AASM Hammer Bombs (Guided Glide Bombs)

🎦 02:52-03:46⏩
Jonathan notes that France will be doubling production of AASM "hammer bombs" guided glide bombs this year. This follows on from an agreement to supply 50 AASM Hammer bombs per month (up to a total of 600). Jonathan isn't sure of the exact numbers now, but it is a lot more. He observes that the number of guided bombs Russia uses on a daily basis massively outweighs those used by Ukraine.

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US Charity Help Heroes of Ukraine donate unique "Hazard" drone and Humvee

🎦 03:46-04:56⏩
Jonathan reports that US charity "Help Heroes of Ukraine" have handed over a unique drone called "Hazard" and a Humvee. It's unclear whether this is a one-off or one of many. The drone is said to be able to evade Russian electronic warfare and is virtually silent and is launched by a catapult or sling. Jonathan presumes it to be a reconnaissance drone.

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German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern aid to Chernihiv Oblast

🎦 04:56-05:44⏩
The German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will be helping Chernihiv Oblast with the construction of shelters at five educational institutions. €250,000 has been allocated for this. A further €20,174 will be provided to improve the storage and digitisation of 100 paintings (16th-20th centuries) from the Nijin Mykola Gogol University in Chernihiv Oblast.

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Serbia to buy $335m of military equipment from Israel's Elbit Systems

🎦 05:44-07:30⏩
Jonathan notes that (according to Visegrad - so take with a pinch of salt) Serbia will buy $335m of advanced artillery systems and drones from Israel's Elbit systems. Jonathan questions what to do with Serbia. They are looking eastwards towards Putin (autocratic attraction) whilst also paying lip service to the West (EU/Europe). He believes that Serbia can be dealt with using the "carrot" or the "stick". The carrot would be to attract them with preferential deals and tie them into Western military equipment in the hope that they will eventually align to the West. The stick is to hit them in other ways but this runs the risk of them moving further into Russia's embrace. Jonathan observes that this looks like a case of "the carrot" and that this is very much a political decision.

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Ukraine modifies Soviet-era TM-62 Anti-Tank mines to be dropped by drones

🎦 07:30-08:19⏩
Jonathan describes how Ukrainian forces are modifying Soviet-era TM-62 anti-tank mines with tails so they can be dropped by drones onto Russian vehicle depots. Whilst basic, the addition of the tail may help with accuracy - shifting the mine 3-5m from the drop point which is important when precision is critical. Jonathan notes that despite the low-tech nature of the modification, these are still very destructive.

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Hexacopters/Octacopters and Wild Hornets used to deploy TM-62 mines

🎦 08:19-08:44⏩
Jonathan notes that Ukrainian forces have been using hexacopters/octacopters as well as Wild Hornets (Ukrainian drones) to drop TM-62s onto Russian targets. The mines weigh 9-10kg and Jonathan is impressed that they have been able to carry two at a time.

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Zelensky's New Year address: Ukraine now produces 30% of its military equipment

🎦 08:44-10:07⏩
In his New Year's address, Zelensky revealed that Ukraine now produces 30% of all its military equipment. Jonathan is cautious about this statistic, pointing out that "military equipment" can include anything from a single bullet to a HIMARS system, so the 30% figure is open to interpretation. It's not clear if this is by value, quantity or some other measure.

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Ukraine has produced over one million drones during 2024

🎦 10:07-10:14⏩
Zelensky has claimed that domestic defence production in Ukraine has reached unprecedented levels with over 1 million drones manufactured during 2024.

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Zelensky highlights domestically produced weapons systems

🎦 10:14-10:29⏩
As well as drones, Zelensky highlighted several other domestically produced weapons systems such as the Neptune and Sapsan missiles. Jonathan is unsure if the Sapsan has been used but mentions several Ukrainian made drone models including the Hore, Vampire, Call of Rats, Kamikaze, Lutky, Heavy Shots and Firepoint.

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Zelensky praises young Ukrainian engineers

🎦 10:29-10:53⏩
During his address, Zelensky described visiting a defence factory and asking a young engineer about what they were making. The engineer replied "Well, they're not just people, they're rockets!". Jonathan recounts that this made Zelensky reflect on how the country had failed to notice such talent since the 1990s. Zelensky finished by observing that for the first time, Ukraine is building its own missiles and producing over a million drones each year.

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Russian forces forced to learn Ukrainian

🎦 10:53-11:04⏩
Zelensky highlighted how Russian forces are having to learn Ukrainian words such as Palyanitsia, Peklo and Ruta - the names of Ukrainian-made weapons that have become familiar to them.

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Ukraine well-positioned to enhance its defensive capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign supplies

🎦 11:04-11:20⏩
Jonathan observes how the rapid development of Ukraine's domestic defence industry comes alongside significant international military aid and support packages. This will stand them in good stead for reducing reliance on foreign supplies.

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Ukraine must be able to stand on its own two feet and the importance of a sustainable domestic defence industry

🎦 11:20-12:09⏩
Jonathan believes that Ukraine's ability to produce its own military equipment is really important for its future. The war has demonstrated that reliance on other countries isn't a guarantee of support (e.g. if the US withdrew support). This would mean that Ukraine would no longer be able to rely on supplies of weapons such as HIMARS - which are desperately needed by Ukraine. Ukraine needs to make the defence of the country sustainable for the long term. Jonathan reads out a comment from a viewer who asked _"The US can just restrict exports of equipment used to make such weapons. Wouldn't this become a problem?"_ He responds to the comment, pointing out that _"The West doesn't have a monopoly on such things and in any case, much of this stuff is relatively simple engineering - even the US started somewhere."_ He gives the example of the UK in World War II. They needed to become self-sufficient in the production of military equipment and to avoid reliance on foreign powers. Ukraine is in the same position. He finishes by saying _"It's never ideal, but needs must."_

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Ukraine on track to produce its own Cruise and Ballistic Missiles by mid-2025

🎦 12:09-13:36⏩
Jonathan notes an article which highlights how Ukraine is on track to produce its own cruise and ballistic missiles by mid-2025, The Palianytsia drone has already entered mass production and the Ruta missile is undergoing trials. Jonathan is impressed with this development, observing that it takes a long time to get this right. The key takeaway here is that Ukraine is quickly becoming self-sufficient. He believes that Ukraine needs a diverse range of drones, missiles and rockets to make it difficult for the enemy to intercept them.

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Ukraine builds relationships with NATO countries

🎦 13:36-14:06⏩
Jonathan notes an article that highlights that Ukraine has fostered collaborations with NATO members such as Poland, France and Denmark to co-produce military systems, overcoming challenges such as workforce shortages and lack of modern facilities.

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Ukraine to manufacture its own APCs and Infantry Fighting Vehicles?

🎦 14:06-14:35⏩
Jonathan speculates that we may start seeing manufacturing plants in Ukraine producing military equipment such as infantry fighting vehicles and APCs. He believes that this is a good thing.

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Wrap up

🎦 14:35-17:01⏩
Jonathan thanks his members for their kind donations via Buy Me a Coffee and Paypal. He reminds viewers of the upcoming trip to Ukraine with other members of the team to deliver the trucks purchased as a result of fundraising efforts. He feels slightly uncomfortable fundraising for his own travel expenses but rationalises that this is part of reporting from and showcasing Ukraine. He reassures viewers that he will be covering his own fuel, accommodation and food and that donations to the channel will help him achieve this. He thanks viewers again for their support and wishes them a Happy New Year, reminding them to spare a thought for the Ukrainian people.

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