Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News - Debunking the Myths, EU Aid Package

"They want to force Hungary to pay 500 million euros a year, but this is out of the question."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:16⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the second part of his Ukraine War Update. Today's video is about military aid and he highlights the importance of the video by mentioning the unrealistic expectations about EU aid and Zelensky and Von der Leyen publicly refuting US claims about the levels of aid provided to Ukraine.

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EU refutes US claims about the value of military aid given to Ukraine

🎦 00:16-01:13⏩
Jonathan reports that Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission met with US Special Envoy to Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg. Von der Leyen highlighted that the EU had matched the US's commitment of $52bn in military aid to Ukraine and that in total the EU had committed €135bn to Ukraine's financial stability and defence. The EU also intends to scale up defence production. This is a public response to recent US claims that the US had provided more aid than Europe and that Europe needs to do more.

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Jonathan discusses the challenges faced by European countries in military procurement

🎦 01:13-02:28⏩
Jonathan discusses a viewer comment that highlights that whilst Europe is more than capable of providing for its own defence, a lack of cooperation and wasteful spending due to nationalistic tendencies means that money is wasted (Eurofighter vs Rafaele, Leclerc vs Challenger vs Leopard) and that the same quantity of scale as the US is not possible. As a result, tank orders are split three ways and US defence companies benefit from economies of scale, cheaper production costs making US products more competitive. Jonathan agrees and uses Airbus as an example of what can be achieved through cooperation between European countries.

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European defence stocks are outperforming their US counterparts - is this the Trump effect?

🎦 02:28-04:56⏩
Jonathan notes that US defence stocks have fallen recently (e.g. Lockheed Martin -16.4%, Northrop Grumman -13%, General Dynamics -11%). In contrast, European defence stocks have been rising (e.g. Rheinmetall +36.4%, Thales +23%, BAE Systems +10%). Jonathan suggests that the fall in US defence stocks may be related to the US Department of Defence's preparations for cuts ahead of the audit being led by Doge (Elon Musk). The rise in European defence stocks is likely due to investor confidence in increased defence spending by European countries. He speculates that this is in part due to the isolationist stance taken by The White House forcing Europe to become more self-reliant and as a result, European countries will buy defence equipment from within the EU. Jonathan expresses his dislike of the fact that the military industrial complex and the pursuit of profit may be the saving grace for Ukraine. He speculates that the Trump administration will be coming under increasing pressure from the US defence industry as a result of its policies and the potential impact this will have on profits. He concludes by saying that if the EU imposed tariffs on US military equipment, this would increase the pressure on the Trump administration to change course.

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EU prepares a €10bn military aid package for Ukraine

🎦 04:56-06:02⏩
Jonathan notes that whilst the €700bn aid package mentioned recently was unrealistic, a €6.2bn aid package (potentially rising to €10bn) is being prepared by the EU. This will include 1.5m artillery shells, air defence systems and is due to be unveiled on 24th February (after the German elections).

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Politico: EU to unveil €10bn military aid package for Ukraine

🎦 06:02-08:11⏩
Jonathan reports that Politico are reporting that the EU will unveil a €10bn military aid package which will include 1.5m artillery shells and air defence systems. Countries will be able to contribute money or equipment. The article goes on to mention that there is some consternation within the EU and Kyiv about the EU being sidelined from peace talks taking place between the US and Russia. The article concludes by noting that Hungarian support is unlikely.

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Hungary unlikely to support EU Military Aid package

🎦 08:11-09:06⏩
Jonathan notes that Hungary is unlikely to support the EU aid package and quotes Viktor Orban (Hungarian Prime Minister) who has said that the EU is discussing how much each member state should pay towards Ukrainian reconstruction after the US stops providing financial support. Orban dismissed the suggestion that Hungary should pay €500m per year.

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Ben Wallace: The White House is peddling fake news about US aid to Ukraine

🎦 09:06-10:59⏩
Jonathan discusses comments made by former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace who has criticised the White House for peddling fake news about the value of US Aid to Ukraine.

• The White House claims the US has given double what Europe has given - This is not true says Wallace, Europe has given more.
• Zelensky doesn't know where half of the aid money has gone so it must be corrupt - a large proportion of aid money has been spent by donor nations replacing equipment that has already been gifted to Ukraine (e.g. The US has only sent $100bn out of $175bn as direct aid with the remaining $75bn being spent on replenishing US stocks).
• Ukraine started the war - Wallace points out that this is what the Kremlin says and that Russia invaded in 2014 and 2022.

Jonathan concludes by saying that what is most interesting about these comments are that they are coming from a Conservative politician and reflect the mood amongst those countries that support Ukraine towards the US.

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Lithuania provides $80m military aid package to Ukraine

🎦 11:00-11:13⏩
Jonathan reports that Lithuania has sent an $80m military aid package to Ukraine which includes trucks, thermal imaging equipment and other essential items.

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Latvia to send 12,000 drones to Ukraine

🎦 11:13-11:22⏩
Jonathan reports that Latvia is to send 12,000 drones to Ukraine, most of them FPV (first person view) drones.

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UK may send Typhoon fighter jets and peacekeepers to Ukraine

🎦 11:22-12:10⏩
Jonathan reports that the UK may send Typhoon fighter jets to patrol Ukrainian airspace as part of a peacekeeping force which may also include UK troops. A defence analyst Shashank Joshi has said that the UK armed forces, and in particular the RAF are already overstretched and that this could have an adverse impact on the UK's ability to meet its NATO and other commitments. Jonathan agrees and notes that the UK armed forces have been overstretched for decades.

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The UK is ready to deploy troops to Ukraine

🎦 12:10-12:47⏩
Jonathan ponders whether the deployment of a UK peacekeeping force to Ukraine would be welcomed by British troops - many of whom may relish the opportunity to put their training to use. Jonathan encourages serving members of the armed forces to comment and share their views.

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UK MOD: Greyhawk Air Defence System

🎦 12:47-15:35⏩
Jonathan plays a video from the UK Ministry of Defence about the Greyhawk Air Defence system. The Greyhawk is a ground based anti-drone system that is highly effective at shooting down drones and has been supplied to Ukraine. The Greyhawk is a bespoke system that utilises existing Soviet-era R-73 (AA-11 Archer) air-to-air missiles. The missiles are mounted on a firing platform housed within a standard 20ft shipping container. Two systems have already been delivered to Ukraine with a further 15 to be supplied within the next year.

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Ukrainian Defence Industry is attracting investment

🎦 15:35-16:25⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian defence start-ups are seeing an influx of investment from Western investors. He speculates that this is part of a change in strategy (similar to that used by Denmark) where Western nations are investing directly in the Ukrainian Defence industry.

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Ukraine develops a cardboard drone

🎦 16:25-17:34⏩
Jonathan reports that a cardboard drone - the Desert - has been developed in Ukraine. The drone is very cheap (less than $200), has a range of 15km and can carry a 1lb warhead.

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Dutch Parliament supports sending a peacekeeping force to Ukraine

🎦 17:34-18:21⏩
Jonathan reports that the Dutch Parliament has backed sending a peacekeeping force to Ukraine and that Prime Minister Dick Schoof is open to the idea. The motion passed despite opposition from Geert Wilder's PVV party (Party for Freedom). The US has ruled out NATO involvement.

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UK may send up to 10,000 troops to Ukraine

🎦 18:21-18:49⏩
Jonathan reports that The Sun newspaper are reporting that the UK may send up to 10,000 troops (two brigades) to Ukraine. This would leave the UK vulnerable due to the small size of the British Army which, at just 71,300 is the smallest it has been in 200 years.

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UK Ministry of Defence: The British army is ready to deploy to Ukraine

🎦 18:49-20:08⏩
Jonathan reports that The Ministry of Defence has said that the British Army would be ready if it was ordered to deploy to Ukraine.

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Former Estonian PM Kaja Kallas: Europeans will be asked to secure peace in Ukraine

🎦 20:08-21:04⏩
Jonathan discusses an interview with former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas who has said that she believes that European countries will be the ones asked to secure any peace deal in Ukraine. Kallas goes on to say that the recent meeting in Paris failed to produce any concrete plans for a peacekeeping force.

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Kaja Kallas: Russia will try to use peace talks to undermine European security

🎦 21:04-23:15⏩
Kallas was asked what assurances had been given by the US that Russia wouldn't use the peace talks to undermine European security. Kallas said that she had met with various US officials and that it was clear that they didn't have a plan. This is a fascinating response as it gives an insight into the chaotic way the US is approaching negotiations. Kallas had also been told that the US would agree to anything in the peace talks but she doubts this is the case.

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Kaja Kallas: It is frustrating that the West has had 3 years to prepare Ukraine

🎦 23:15-24:19⏩
When asked about whether enough had been done to prepare Ukraine for war, Kallas says that she finds it incredibly frustrating that the West has had three years to prepare Ukraine but that it is nonetheless optimistic that lessons have been learned.

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Over 10,000 Ukrainians have applied to join new military programme

🎦 24:19-26:56⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has announced that over 10,000 Ukrainians have applied to join a new military programme - Contract 18-24 - in just one week. The programme is open to 18-24 year olds who are currently exempt from conscription (due to education). Jonathan explains that neither Russia nor Ukraine wants to introduce full mobilisation due to the social and economic impacts this would cause.

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Contract 18-24: A new programme to attract young Ukrainians to join the military

🎦 26:56-27:10⏩
Jonathan reports that Contract 18-24 offers incentives such as good pay, training to NATO standard, social benefits, university tuition and other benefits in order to encourage young people to join the military.

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Estonia: Russia is expanding its armed forces and preparing for a potential war with NATO

🎦 27:10-28:19⏩
Jonathan reports that Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) has concluded that Russia is expanding its armed forces in preparation for a potential war with NATO. Their annual report states that Russia aims to have an army of 1.5m personnel by 2026. The report also highlights Russian efforts to increase drone production and become self-sufficient in arms production. Jonathan notes that China is supplying Russia with up to 80% of the dual-use technology it needs.

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Russia is rearming and its defence industry is expanding

🎦 28:19-31:31⏩
Jonathan talks about the debate about whether Russia has the capability to invade anywhere else given the losses it has suffered in Ukraine. He says that whilst the consensus is that Russia would be too depleted, Russia could be rearming and building up its forces in other areas. He highlights research from open source intelligence group _Tuchny_ which has concluded that Russia's defence industry is expanding and is being supported by an axis of tyranny - Russia, Iran, China and North Korea. Jonathan highlights some of the key points:

• Russia's defence industry is not just surviving, it's expanding.
• Iran is supplying drones, North Korea munitions and China dual use technology.
• Ukraine is limited in its ability to strike key Russian defence infrastructure due to a lack of long-range weapons and the proximity of some facilities to Moscow (and air defences).

Jonathan goes on to highlight some of the findings about specific plants and facilities that are expanding:

• Tambov Powder Plant - production up 34% since 2022, is hiring 3,000 workers and is now under the control of Rostec (a state-owned defence conglomerate).
• Bryansk Chemical Plant - increased activity despite being hit by a Ukrainian strike. Produces propellants for Grad, Uragan, Tormelio, Es and Tosman, Buratino systems.
• Alexinsky Chemical Plant - hit by 13 drones in November 2024.
• Murom Instrument Making Plant - produces ignition systems for missiles and is expanding.
• Kazan Plant of Precision Engineering - produces optical and aiming systems.
• MPO Iskra Plant in Perm - produces components for ballistic and intercontinental missiles. The plant is located near the Perm Powder Plant (which is also expanding).

Jonathan concludes by saying that Russia is preparing for a larger conflict - not with Ukraine, but with a weakened Europe.

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Zelensky refutes US claims about the value of aid to Ukraine

🎦 31:31-33:45⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelensky has responded to Trump's comments about the value of aid to Ukraine. Zelensky said that $120bn has been spent by Ukraine on weapons with a further $200bn being provided by the US and Europe. Of this $200bn, the US has provided $67bn in weapons and $31.5bn in direct budget assistance. Zelensky also criticised Trump's comments about security guarantees and said that the only thing Trump is interested in is gaining access to 50% or Ukraine's rare earth metals.

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Wrap up

🎦 33:45-35:23⏩
Jonathan says that he will be supporting upcoming fundraising campaigns for Ukraine including a drone campaign with Jigas Paul and Jonathan Fink, a NAFO campaign and a "Car for Ukraine" Easter campaign. He acknowledges that people may be suffering from fundraiser fatigue but that it is incumbent on him to use his channel to help Ukraine.

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