Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News - Minerals Deal, Trump Compromised
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Table of Contents 📖
"Ukraine, do not give us to Russia. Trump, bad conversation."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:31⏩
- Jonathan welcomes the team to another ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War News Update, part two for 23rd February 2025.
- He mentions a separate "extra" video just released about Elon Musk's egregious comments on Ukraine, which was initially intended for this video but made it too long.
- Jonathan anticipates this video will also be lengthy due to the amount of news to cover.
- He proposes to start with news from Slovakia.
Slovakian PM Robert Fico's Pro-Russian Stance
🎦 00:32-01:55⏩
- Jonathan discusses Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico's recent statements regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- Fico acknowledges Russia's actions as a violation of international law but attempts to justify them by citing "serious security reasons" and NATO enlargement.
- Jonathan refutes Fico's claims, highlighting that Putin's 2020 essay barely mentions NATO enlargement as a primary concern, suggesting it's not the main issue for Russia.
- Fico also criticised the EU's involvement in peace negotiations, despite the EU's support for Ukraine and Ukraine's own request for EU involvement.
- Jonathan finds Fico's position contradictory and "ridiculous", pointing out the illogicality of opposing EU involvement while simultaneously acknowledging the unlikelihood of a just peace for Ukraine without it.
EU Defence Ministers Meeting to Bolster Ukraine Support
🎦 01:55-02:27⏩
- France and Estonia are hosting a meeting of European defence ministers to discuss strengthening support for Ukraine.
- A potential €20 billion EU aid package for Ukraine is under discussion as a response to the "Trumpian situation".
- Slovakia and Hungary might pose challenges to this package.
- The video conference will include representatives from the UK, Germany, Italy, Poland, the EU, and NATO.
Trump Administration's Debt Ceiling and Tax Cuts for Billionaires
🎦 02:27-02:57⏩
- Jonathan discusses the Trump administration's desire to raise the debt ceiling in the US.
- This is linked to tax cuts for billionaires, which are expected to increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion.
- Government spending cuts under Trump are seen as an attempt to offset the cost of these tax cuts for the wealthy, fulfilling promises made to donors.
French National Assembly Advances Billionaire's Tax
🎦 02:57-03:38⏩
- In contrast to the US, the French National Assembly has voted to advance a billionaire's tax with a significant majority (116 in favour, 39 against).
- This tax enjoys widespread public support in France (75%).
- Jonathan suggests that the Democrats in the US should highlight how Republican policies benefit billionaires, a message that resonates with public sentiment.
Democrats' Missed Opportunity to Counter Populist Oligarchy Narrative
🎦 03:38-04:54⏩
- Jonathan argues that Democrats are failing to effectively counter the populist narrative that elites are corrupt.
- He suggests they should expose how populist leaders are replacing political elites with a "corrupt billionaire oligarchy" that does not serve the people's best interests.
- The example of rising insulin prices in the US under the Republican administration is cited as evidence of policies benefiting the wealthy at the expense of the working class.
Public Support for Billionaire's Tax in France and US
🎦 04:54-05:18⏩
- Jonathan highlights the strong public support for a billionaire's tax in France (75%) and suggests similar support would be found in the US if put to a public vote.
- He attributes opposition in the US to figures like Fox News and influential voices who mislead the public.
- Polls indicate similar levels of support for wealth taxes across various countries, including the US.
French Far-Right Leader Cancels CPAC Speech Over Steve Bannon's Nazi Salute, But Nigel Farage Attends
🎦 05:18-05:54⏩
- Jordan Bardella, leader of the French far-right Rassemblement National, cancelled his appearance at CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) due to Steve Bannon's Nazi salute.
- Jonathan finds it remarkable that the French far-right found Bannon's action too extreme.
- Nigel Farage, however, did not cancel his CPAC appearance and was seen shaking hands with Steve Bannon.
Reform UK and MAGA Parallels: Public Support for Trump and Putin
🎦 05:54-07:02⏩
- Jonathan defends his assertion that Reform UK is essentially MAGA imported into the UK, citing policy crossovers, the "Make Britain Great Again" slogan, and Nigel Farage's presence and enthusiasm at CPAC/MAGA events, even wearing MAGA-style hats in Reform colours.
- He refers to newspaper articles in the Evening Standard highlighting the MAGA influence on Reform UK.
- Polls show Reform Party supporters in the UK are overwhelmingly more likely to support Donald Trump and significantly more likely to support Vladimir Putin compared to supporters of other UK parties.
Nigel Farage's CPAC Attendance Despite Bannon's Nazi Salute Contrasted with French Far-Right's Cancellation
🎦 07:02-07:25⏩
- Jonathan reiterates Nigel Farage's participation at CPAC, including sharing the stage with Steve Bannon and photo opportunities, despite Bannon's Nazi salute causing the French far-right leader to cancel his appearance.
- This highlights the difference in tolerance for extremism between some segments of the far-right.
Sanna Marin: Finland's NATO Membership Driven by Concerns Over Trump and Putin
🎦 07:25-08:17⏩
- Former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin explained that Finland's decision to join NATO was partly due to concerns about Donald Trump's potential return to power.
- She feared a scenario where both Trump and Putin were in power simultaneously, creating global instability.
- Jonathan expresses his admiration for Sanna Marin as a leader and regrets her loss to the resurgent right-wing in Finland.
Sanna Marin's Criticisms of Trump and Warnings About Russia
🎦 08:17-08:35⏩
- Marin criticised Trump's rhetoric as alarming for smaller nations.
- She warned that Russia would not stop its invasion of Ukraine without active resistance and predicted potential Russian aggression towards Moldova, the Western Balkans, and even NATO countries.
- She also highlighted Russia's use of hybrid warfare, including cutting submarine cables.
Finland's NATO Membership as a Prescient Move Amidst US Uncertainty
🎦 08:35-09:06⏩
- Jonathan considers Finland's move to join NATO as "prescient" and "savvy" given the current geopolitical climate and the potential for the US to undermine NATO from within.
- He agrees with Marin's assessment of the threats and the importance of Finland's NATO membership.
Netherlands: Pro-Ukraine Coalition Government Faces Pro-Russia Element
🎦 09:06-10:18⏩
- The Netherlands' coalition prime minister, Dick Schoof, is praised for his strong pro-Ukraine stance and continued support.
- However, a coalition party, PVV led by Geert Wilders, is described as pro-Russia and not pro-Ukraine.
- Schoof reiterated his assurance to President Zelenskyy of continued Dutch military, financial, and political support and the importance of sanctions against Russia and Ukraine's strong negotiating position.
- In contrast, a Dutch Minister from PVV falsely claimed Zelenskyy was "not democratically elected," echoing Kremlin propaganda, and retracted the statement after backlash.
- This incident highlights the infiltration of Russian narratives even within European governments and the concerning presence of pro-Russian voices in positions of power.
Spanish Prime Minister's Kyiv Visit and European Unity Against Trump's Russia Policy
🎦 10:18-10:45⏩
- Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is planning a visit to Kyiv, condemning Russia as the aggressor in Ukraine.
- Jonathan notes the strong unity within Europe in support of Zelenskyy and against Trump's approach to Russia.
- Sanchez criticises Trump's unilateral talks with Moscow, bypassing Zelenskyy.
Macron and Starmer's Upcoming Visits to the White House and Divergent Approaches to Trump
🎦 10:45-11:30⏩
- Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer are scheduled to visit the White House.
- Starmer's approach is expected to be more conciliatory, attempting to "cozy up" to Trump, possibly through flattery.
- Jonathan questions the effectiveness of appeasement and suggests a stronger stance is necessary.
Jonathan's Recommended Strong Approach to Trump: Economic Realities and Polls
🎦 11:30-12:41⏩
- Jonathan believes a direct and forceful approach is better than appeasement.
- He suggests Starmer should emphasise the economic consequences for both the US and its allies, particularly the UK and EU, if Trump pursues isolationist policies and trade wars.
- He points out Trump's declining poll numbers, particularly on the economy, due to rising prices and job losses, as leverage.
- Jonathan suggests highlighting that working against Europe will harm Trump's polls and prevent him from achieving a Nobel Peace Prize for an unjust peace plan in Ukraine.
UK's Firm Stance on Ukraine: Starmer's Public Statements and New Sanctions
🎦 12:41-13:52⏩
- Tim White in The Sun highlights Keir Starmer's public statements reiterating that Ukraine must be at the table for discussions about its future, contrasting with Trump's position.
- Starmer emphasises that a bad peace deal would be disastrous.
- The UK is expected to unveil a significant new package of sanctions against Russia, described by Foreign Secretary David Lammy as the "largest package" since the early days of the war, aimed at eroding Russia's military capabilities.
- Jonathan welcomes this strong stance from the UK and EU.
Macron's Meeting with Trump and Starmer's Minerals Deal Negotiation
🎦 13:52-14:17⏩
- Emmanuel Macron will be the first European leader to meet Trump since his return to the White House.
- Jonathan understands that Starmer will attempt to negotiate a fairer minerals deal between Ukraine and the US during his meeting with Trump.
- This indicates a growing public pushback against the US's current stance on Ukraine.
Public Resentment Towards US and Calls for European Independence: LBC Radio Caller
🎦 14:17-16:37⏩
- Jonathan plays a clip from LBC radio featuring a caller named Peter expressing growing sentiment in the West to "turn our backs on America".
- Peter advocates for the US to leave, for Europe to create its own reserve currency (Euro), and for Europe to assert its independence.
- He argues that the US's power is contingent on Europe's consent and that Europe could easily challenge US dominance, especially given US debt and reliance on reserve currency status.
- Peter suggests that diminishing the dollar's reserve currency status could force America to "heal".
Analysis of European Currency Independence and US Promotion of Far-Right🎦 16:37-17:31⏩
- Jonathan finds the caller's point about reserve currency status "really interesting" and "true".
- He speculates that the US promotion of far-right parties in Europe might be a tactic to prevent the EU from becoming a unified competitor and challenging US economic dominance through the Euro.
- He suggests the US may fear a united Europe using the Euro as a reserve currency, especially if the US becomes more isolationist.
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Feasibility of European Unity Against a Rogue US
🎦 17:31-18:28⏩
- Jonathan discusses the feasibility of a united Europe standing up to a "rogue United States," even if supported by Putin.
- He highlights the EU's economic size, comparable to the US, and its larger consumer base.
- Brexit is mentioned as a setback to European unity, benefiting both Putin and Trump by weakening Europe's potential to become a dominant force.
Historical Context of US Dollar Dominance and the Need for European Unity
🎦 18:28-19:24⏩
- Jonathan explains the historical context of the dollar's reserve currency status, tracing it back to the Bretton Woods system in 1944 and the Federal Reserve's creation in 1914.
- He emphasizes that European unity is crucial for challenging US dominance and creating a viable alternative reserve currency.
- He notes that the special relationship between the US and UK has historically aimed to prevent Europe from becoming a dominant force, echoing historical power dynamics.
Growing Public Resentment Towards US and Cross-Party Support for Ukraine in UK
🎦 19:24-20:08⏩
- Jonathan observes increasing public resentment towards the US's actions and policies.
- He mentions a panel discussion with Paul Mason (Labour), a Lib Dem representative, and Mesa Gifford (Conservative) highlighting cross-party unity in the UK on supporting Ukraine.
- This unity contrasts with the polarisation seen in the US regarding Ukraine.
Paul Mason at Pro-Ukraine Demonstration Outside Russian Embassy
🎦 20:08-22:43⏩
- Jonathan shows a clip of Paul Mason speaking at a large pro-Ukraine demonstration outside the Russian embassy in London on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion.
- Mason highlights the large turnout and cross-section of British society supporting Ukraine.
- He criticises Trump's decision to "walk away from the Western alliance" and impose conditions on aid to Ukraine.
- Mason draws a parallel to Britain's isolation in 1939-40, but notes that Ukraine is not alone, with most of Europe and parts of the Global South standing with them.
- He emphasizes the importance of rearming and national security, even from a left-wing perspective, and urges learning from Ukrainian resistance.
Jonathan's Agreement with Paul Mason's Analysis and Sadness at US Position
🎦 22:43-24:37⏩
- Jonathan expresses strong agreement with Paul Mason's points, considering them to "nail" the current situation.
- He reiterates the need for the UK and a wider coalition of Europe, Canada, Japan, and Australia to stand firm.
- Jonathan, identifying as left-leaning, acknowledges his own shift towards a stronger stance on defence due to geopolitical realities and threats from Russia and China.
- He expresses "desperate sadness" at the US's apparent self-inflicted damage and loss of international support.
- He clarifies that his criticism is directed at the Trump administration and anti-democratic movements, not the American people in general, acknowledging his American followers.
Ed Davey (Lib Dem Leader) Calls for Increased UK Defence Spending
🎦 24:37-25:33⏩
- Jonathan discusses Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, calling for an immediate increase in UK defence spending in response to Trump's potential betrayal of Ukraine and the UK.
- Davey urges cross-party agreement to address defence spending needs, highlighting the urgency of the situation.
- Jonathan agrees with Davey's assessment and the necessity of increased defence spending.
Nigel Farage's MAGA Alignment and CPAC Appearance: Hypocrisy and Russian Narrative🎦 25:33-28:05⏩
- Despite cross-party consensus on Ukraine, Jonathan questions Nigel Farage's position, noting his continued alignment with MAGA and appearance at CPAC.
- He criticises Farage's absence from his constituency and focus on American politics.
- Jonathan highlights Farage's statements at CPAC downplaying issues in the UK and echoing MAGA talking points, including the false claim of limited free speech in the UK compared to Russia.
- He refutes this claim, pointing out the dangers of speaking out in Russia, referencing Alexei Navalny's fate, and the absurdity of Farage, who constantly speaks freely, making such claims.
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Polish President Duda's Brief and Humiliating Meeting with Trump
🎦 28:05-30:19⏩
- Jonathan discusses Polish President Andrzej Duda's visit to the White House for a meeting with Trump.
- Duda, a strong supporter of Ukraine, received only a 10-minute meeting, described as an "embarrassment" and "humiliation" for Poland, traditionally a close US ally in Europe.
- This contrasts with Trump's rhetoric and Pete Hegseth's upbeat message to Poland, suggesting a shift in US policy and priorities under Trump, sidelining Poland.
- France and the UK are positioned to take a leading role in shaping proposals on Ukraine, while Poland appears to be losing influence with the US.
- Duda's team attempted to spin the meeting as a success, but Jonathan emphasizes that "actions matter" more than "warm words".
- Trump's team is cutting Ukraine out of talks with Russia, and US support for NATO is uncertain, leaving Poland with "scraps" after relying heavily on the US alliance for its security strategy.
Japan's Warning About East Asia and Desire for Ukraine War Involvement
🎦 30:19-30:41⏩
- Former Japanese ambassador to Ukraine, Matsuda Kuninori, warned that failure to achieve a fair and lasting peace in Ukraine could lead to war in East Asia, implicitly referencing China.
- He stressed Japan's need to be involved in discussions about ending the war in Ukraine.
- This contrasts with the US position of excluding Ukraine and other allies from peace talks.
Canada Opposes Russia's G7 Return, Contrasting with Trump's Pro-Russia Stance
🎦 30:41-31:19⏩
- Canada, currently chairing the G7, opposes Russia's return to the group, contrasting with Trump's desire to reinstate Russia into the G8 and arguing against their initial expulsion.
- This further highlights the divergence in US policy under Trump, seemingly switching sides away from Ukraine and towards Russia.
US Draft UN Resolution and German Foreign Minister's Concerns
🎦 31:19-32:17⏩
- The US submitted a draft UN resolution on the Ukraine war's anniversary that significantly differs from the Ukraine/Europe-backed text and takes Russian amendments into account.
- The Russian ambassador to the UN welcomed the US draft, indicating its pro-Russian leaning.
- Jonathan expresses concern about the potential departure of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock due to ongoing elections, praising her strong support for Ukraine and Germany and hoping she remains in government.
European Pressure on US and Potential Leverage
🎦 32:17-33:09⏩
- Jonathan discusses the increasing pressure from European nations, possibly including the UK, on the US to maintain support for Ukraine and liberal democracies.
- He suggests European nations have leverage and should directly confront the US, warning of economic and political consequences if they abandon Ukraine.
- Annalena Baerbock views this as a "new turning point" requiring strong action for the sake of peace.
Putin's Order for Cabinet to Prepare for Return of Western Companies and Der Spiegel's "Betrayed" Cover
🎦 33:09-34:43⏩
- Putin has ordered his cabinet to prepare for the return of Western companies, signaling a potential "corporate renaissance" due to a US-Russia rapprochement.
- Putin intends for Russian companies to have advantages over returning Western firms as "payback" for sanctions, viewing the situation as an economic opportunity and hoping the Ukraine war will be forgotten.
- In contrast, German magazine Der Spiegel's cover features a thoughtful Zelenskyy with the headline "Betrayed," reflecting European concerns about being abandoned by the US like Ukraine.
Heritage Foundation's Influence on Trump Administration and Project 2025
🎦 34:43-37:04⏩
- Jonathan believes the Heritage Foundation is largely responsible for the current US policy shift on Ukraine.
- He views Trump as "vacuous" and easily influenced by those around him, particularly figures from the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025.
- He mentions key figures like Donald Trump Jr., Stephen Miller, and Project 2025 authors in positions of power within the administration.
- Jonathan highlights the connection between Tucker Carlson, the Heritage Foundation, and pro-Orban/pro-Russian groups, indicating a network of influence.
- He references an upcoming article detailing these connections and the Heritage Foundation's role.
Heritage Foundation Consulting Illiberal Think Tanks for EU Policy Plans
🎦 37:04-37:11⏩
- A scoop reveals that the Heritage Foundation is consulting with Polish and Hungarian illiberal think tanks, some with Kremlin ties, for EU policy plans, raising further concerns about their influence.
- Jonathan reiterates the warning to "look out for" the Heritage Foundation due to their worrying influence.
Scott Lucas Interview Excerpt: Trump's Advisors and Conflicting Factions
🎦 37:11-39:01⏩
- Jonathan presents an excerpt from an interview with Scott Lucas, praising it as insightful and aligning with his own views.
- Lucas describes the context of a mineral deal unfavourable to Ukraine and US extortion.
- He identifies two factions within the Trump administration: a pro-Ukraine group (including Keith Kellogg, potentially Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio) and a core group around Trump (Stephen Miller, Project 2025 figures, Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk) who are more Russia-aligned.
- Lucas argues that figures like Rubio and Waltz are now "towing the party line" to avoid losing influence, while Kellogg is being sidelined.
Trump's Lack of Master Plan and Desire for Photo Ops with Putin
🎦 39:01-41:11⏩
- Lucas refutes the idea that Trump has a genius plan, stating his actions are driven by advisors and personal desires.
- Jonathan emphasizes Lucas's point that Trump is not strategically brilliant but rather influenced by those around him and motivated by self-interest.
- Lucas believes Trump wants a meeting with Putin for the "photo opportunity" and to portray himself as a "peacemaker", even if it means an unjust peace that benefits Russia and secures rare earth minerals for the US.
- Jonathan agrees with Lucas's analysis.
Following Trump's Advisors and Politico Article on MAGA Targeting Republican Hawks🎦 41:11-42:44⏩
- Jonathan highlights the importance of watching Trump's advisors to understand future US policy.
- He refers to a Politico article reporting that "hardline Trump advisors" are trying to intimidate and isolate those within the administration who still support Ukraine.
- These hardliners include JD Vance, Stephen Miller, and figures around Donald Trump Jr.
- They are targeting pro-Ukraine figures like Keith Kellogg, Marco Rubio, and Mike Waltz.
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Donald Trump Jr.'s Social Media Disinformation and Targeting of Keith Kellogg🎦 42:44-44:22⏩
- Jonathan elaborates on the "nasty camp" of Trump advisors, including Donald Trump Jr., who, despite lacking an official position, is influential through social media.
- Trump Jr. recently retweeted a fake AI video depicting Zelenskyy in a comedic dance with a caption falsely claiming Zelenskyy is a CIA plant for regime change.
- This disinformation campaign targets figures like Keith Kellogg, who Jonathan believes now has "no influence" within the administration.
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Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz "Scared to Death" and Curbed by MAGA
🎦 44:22-45:32⏩
- The Politico article suggests that Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, previously seen as Ukraine supporters, are now constrained by the MAGA/Project 2025 group, including figures like Richard Grenell.
- A Trump administration official states that Rubio is "scared to death" of being targeted by this group, which has Richard Grenell, a controversial former US ambassador to Germany, ready to replace him.
- Grenell, described as "horrible" and "a handful", appeared at CPAC advocating against aid to Ukraine, indicating the MAGA group's increasing dominance and sidelining of pro-Ukraine voices like Rubio and Waltz.
Ukraine's Limited Options and Europe's Crucial Role
🎦 45:32-46:01⏩
- With pro-Ukraine voices within the Trump administration silenced, Zelenskyy's options are limited to "hold out".
- Jonathan emphasizes the critical role of Europe in diverging from the US and taking a strong stance to support Ukraine.
- He reiterates the importance of watching the rest of the Scott Lucas interview for further insights.
Trump's Firing of Generals and Admirals and Pentagon Workforce Purge
🎦 46:01-46:51⏩
- Jonathan mentions Trump's firing of generals and admirals and a Pentagon announcement of a planned purge of 5,400 employees, suggesting a further consolidation of power by Trump loyalists.
- This occurs against the backdrop of potential major cuts to the Department of Defense under Trump.
Trump's Proposed Military Cuts and Unrealistic Expectations of Putin and Xi Jinping
🎦 46:51-47:38⏩
- Trump is proposing significant cuts to the Department of Defense (8% per year for five years, roughly 35% total), while China and Russia are increasing their defence spending.
- He claimed he would "convince Xi Jinping and Putin to cut their militaries in half," a statement Jonathan dismisses as unrealistic and naive.
- Jonathan concludes that Trump is "handing power away" through these policies.
Elon Musk's Egregious Pro-Russia Stance and Disinformation
🎦 47:38-48:29⏩
- Jonathan refers back to his separate video on Elon Musk, highlighting Musk's "outrageous things" supporting Russia and attacking Ukraine.
- He cites Ilya Ponomarenko's observation that Musk and others never criticise Russia for its aggression but consistently blame Ukraine for resisting.
- Jonathan notes that Musk is central to the disinformation bubble surrounding Trump, echoing Scott Lucas's analysis about the information network influencing policy.
Trump's Dismissal of Zelenskyy's Importance in Negotiations and Scott Lucas's Call for European Divergence🎦 48:29-49:06⏩
- Jonathan highlights Trump's statement that Zelenskyy's presence is "not that important" for negotiations to end the war, which Jonathan considers "absolutely outrageous".
- This reinforces the idea that Trump intends to negotiate with Russia over Ukraine's head, likely to Ukraine's detriment.
- Jonathan reiterates Scott Lucas's point that Europe must "diverge" from the US and stand strong in support of Ukraine, as changing Trump's mind is unlikely.
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Trump's Motivation: Photo Ops, Nobel Prize, and Rare Earth Minerals Deal
🎦 49:06-50:40⏩
- Jonathan reiterates that Trump's primary motivations are likely a Nobel Peace Prize, photo opportunities with Putin, and securing a "rare earth minerals" deal with Ukraine.
- He believes Trump is driven by a desire for personal recognition and financial gain, rather than a genuine concern for a just or lasting peace in Ukraine.
- He uses a satirical analogy of Trump extorting an elderly woman (Doris) for her possessions after offering minimal help, to illustrate Trump's transactional and exploitative approach.
Trump's Interview with Brian Kilmeade: Misinformation and Putin's Talking Points🎦 50:40-52:30⏩
- Jonathan discusses Trump's interview with Brian Kilmeade, noting Kilmeade's surprisingly pro-Ukraine stance despite his broader political views.
- He highlights Trump's inaccurate and dismissive comments about Ukrainian cities being "demolished" like Gaza, reflecting misinformation and echoing Putin's talking points.
- Jonathan imagines questioning Trump directly about his perceptions of damage in Ukraine, to expose his lack of knowledge and reliance on false narratives.
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Trump's Victim-Blaming and Refusal to Acknowledge Putin's Fault
🎦 52:30-54:21⏩
- Jonathan continues discussing Trump's interview, noting Trump's refusal to acknowledge Putin's responsibility for the destruction in Ukraine and his victim-blaming of Zelenskyy.
- Brian Kilmeade tries to steer Trump towards acknowledging Putin's culpability, but Trump deflects and reiterates his desire for a deal.
- Jonathan emphasizes Trump's "horrible" moral calculations and his "sick" attitude towards Zelenskyy for advocating for his own country, highlighting Trump's lack of empathy and moral compass.
US Abandonment of War Crimes Prosecutions Against Russia
🎦 54:21-55:01⏩
- The Daily Telegraph reports that the US is now abandoning attempts to prosecute Russia for war crimes in Ukraine, further signaling a shift in US policy and a softening stance towards Russia under Trump.
- Jonathan expresses disgust at this development.
Analysis of Trump's Motivations: Ignorance, Misinformation, and Potential Compromise🎦 55:01-57:25⏩
- Jonathan returns to Sean Penn's questions about Trump's motivations: wrong advice, madness, or being owned.
- He replaces "madness" with "ignorance," arguing Trump's lack of knowledge about geopolitics and Russia/Ukraine makes him susceptible to misinformation and bad advice.
- He contrasts Trump's ignorance with his own efforts to become informed by reading extensively on the subject.
- Jonathan then discusses the possibility of Trump being "owned" or compromised by Russia, citing articles and reports detailing Trump's long-standing Russian connections, including KGB recruitment allegations and Paul Manafort's ties.
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Historical Evidence of Russian Cultivation of Trump as an Asset: KGB Agent Allegations and 1987 Visit
🎦 57:25-59:29⏩
- Jonathan presents evidence suggesting Russia has cultivated Trump as an asset for decades.
- He cites a Guardian article from 2021 referencing former KGB agent Yuri Shvets's claim that Russia has been "training Trump as its agent for 40 years."
- He mentions Trump's 1987 visit to Russia, after which he took out adverts attacking NATO.
- Another former KGB agent alleges Trump was recruited in 1987 and given the codename "Krasnov".
- Jonathan emphasizes the accumulation of evidence suggesting Trump's potential compromise by Russia is not a conspiracy theory but based on available data and information.
Unconfirmed Report of Trump Attending May 9th Victory Day Parade in Moscow
- Jonathan mentions an unconfirmed report from French magazine Le Point that Trump will attend the May 9th Victory Day parade in Moscow.
- He expresses uncertainty about the report's veracity but notes that it aligns with Scott Lucas's analysis about Trump seeking photo opportunities with Putin.
- Such an appearance would be a "coup" for the Kremlin.
Trump's Language Minimizing Russian Culpability and Blaming Ukraine
- Jonathan discusses user comment from Jane Keefe about Trump's language shifting to focus on "soldiers dying" in Ukraine, avoiding mention of civilian deaths inflicted by Russia.
- This linguistic shift minimizes Russian culpability for civilian casualties and subtly blames Zelenskyy for soldier deaths, aligning with Kremlin narratives.
- Jonathan highlights Trump's evasion of questions about Putin being a dictator after calling Zelenskyy one, further indicating his reluctance to criticise Putin.
Zelenskyy's Efforts to Salvage Relationship with Trump and Trump's Admission of Russian Attack with Victim-Blaming🎦 01:01:41-01:03:06⏩
- Zelenskyy is reportedly trying to salvage his relationship with Trump after recent public disagreements, likely related to the minerals deal.
- Trump finally "admits" that "Russia attacked" Ukraine but immediately follows it with victim-blaming: "they shouldn't have let him attack."
- Jonathan uses a satirical analogy of a mugging to illustrate the absurdity of blaming the victim (Ukraine) for being attacked by the aggressor (Russia), mirroring Trump's illogical and morally bankrupt stance.
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Trump's Extortionate Minerals Deal Demands: 100% Ownership and $500 Billion
- Jonathan transitions to discussing the minerals deal, quoting Trump at CPAC demanding "something" in return for US aid, specifically "rare earth oil and oil," essentially demanding money and resources from Ukraine.
- He continues his satirical portrayal of Trump extorting "Doris" (Ukraine), now demanding her car keys as payment, highlighting the predatory nature of the proposed minerals deal.
Summary of Trump-Ukraine Relations: Extortion and Lack of Genuine Support🎦 01:04:21-01:05:25⏩
- Jonathan summarizes the Trump-Ukraine dynamic: good conversations with Russia (giving Trump what he wants), bad conversations with Ukraine (not giving Trump everything he wants).
- He highlights the stark contrast: Trump's positive view of Putin (giving him business deals) versus his negative view of Zelenskyy (not fulfilling Trump's demands), emphasizing the transactional and self-serving nature of Trump's approach.
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Revised US Minerals Deal Demands: 100% US Financial Interest and $500 Billion Fund
- The New York Times reports on a revised US minerals deal proposal for Ukraine, showing even tougher demands.
- The new document states that revenues from Ukrainian resources would go to a fund in which the US holds 100% financial interest.
- Ukraine would have to contribute to this fund until it reaches $500 billion, a figure far exceeding Ukraine's resource revenues and US aid to date.
- Jonathan emphasizes the exorbitant and unrealistic nature of Trump's $500 billion demand, seemingly "pulled out of his arse".
Unclear Scope of $500 Billion Demand: Past or Future Aid Extortion
- It remains unclear whether the $500 billion demand is repayment for past US aid or also a precondition for future support, raising concerns about ongoing extortion.
- The revised deal suggests future aid will come at an even "higher price," with Ukraine required to contribute double the amount of any future US aid to the fund.
- Jonathan expresses disbelief at the "ridiculous" and exploitative nature of these terms.
Details of Revised Minerals Deal: Post-War Reconstruction and Occupied Territories🎦 01:07:25-01:08:26⏩
- The revised proposal mentions the US potentially investing a portion of the fund revenue in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction, including developing Ukraine's subsoil assets and infrastructure.
- It also includes provisions for revenues from territories currently occupied by Russia if they are liberated, with Ukraine contributing 66% of resource revenues from those areas to the fund.
- The fund's signatories are listed as Secretary of State Mark Rubio and Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andriy Sipihar, with a separate "fund agreement" to follow for specific details.
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Ukraine's Limited Natural Resource Economy and US "Security Guarantee" Claim
- Jonathan points out that Ukraine is not a major natural resource exporter, with its economy primarily based on agriculture, steel, and outsourcing programming.
- Natural resource revenues only comprised 2.5% of Ukraine's budget last year.
- Ukrainian experts note that developing new resource fields would take years and significant investment.
- The Trump administration bizarrely suggests that "the mere presence of American economic interests in Ukraine would be security guarantee for Kyiv," a claim Jonathan finds ludicrous.
US Pressure on Zelenskyy to Sign Deal and Extortionate Threat
- Top US cabinet members are pressuring Zelenskyy to sign the minerals deal "in recent days".
- National Security Advisor Mike Walz predicts Zelenskyy will sign "in the very short term," framing it as "good for Ukraine" due to "economic partnership with the US."
- Trump himself stated, "we're going to either sign a deal or there's going to be a lot of problems with them," which Jonathan identifies as blatant "extortion" and a "threat" from a former ally.
Jane Keane's Summary: US Demands 100% Minerals, Gas, and Oil for "Nothing in Return"
- Jane Keane succinctly summarizes the deal: Trump wants 100% of Ukraine's minerals, gas, and oil, offering "nothing in return" beyond what the US has already given.
- She describes this as "what being an American ally is now," highlighting the exploitative nature of the relationship under Trump.
- A Ukrainian infographic confirms that the new version of the agreement is "order of magnitude tougher" than the initial one.
Ukrainian Infographic Details: 100% US Ownership and Unequal Contribution Ratio
- The Ukrainian infographic reveals the revised deal proposes "100% of the ownership of the future fund for the United States."
- It also establishes an unequal contribution ratio: Ukraine contributes two-thirds of future resource revenues, while the US contributes one-third, "already provided in the form of weapons," meaning no new financial investment.
- Jonathan emphasizes the exploitative terms: the US takes all income from Ukrainian resources while contributing minimally, effectively making Ukraine finance its own exploitation.
- The fund is set at $500 billion and covers minerals, gas, and oil, but not port revenues.
Ukraine's Resistance to Deal: "More Work Needed" and "Weak Things Offered from American Side"
- Despite US claims of being "very close to signing," Christopher Miller from the Financial Times reports that the "draft on the table now needs more work," citing a person involved.
- The source states, "We see many obligations of Ukraine and very weak things offered from the American side," indicating Ukrainian resistance to the deal's unfavourable terms.
- Jonathan concludes that a deal is not imminent despite US pressure.
Parliament Speaker on US Seeking 50% Interest and Starlink Threat
- A Ukrainian parliament speaker reports that the US is "reportedly looking to obtain an interest in 50% of Ukraine's natural resources," though Jonathan notes this can be interpreted as effectively 100% US control.
- Jonathan references the previously discussed threat of the US "turning off Starlink" if Ukraine didn't sign the deal, highlighting the pressure tactics used.
Alexander Jokic: US Goal is to Leave Ukraine Without Security Guarantees and Rehabilitate Russia
- Alexander Jokic argues that the US-Ukraine "breakup" is not just about the minerals deal or Trump's ego, but about the US wanting to abandon Ukraine without security guarantees and "rehabilitate Russia completely."
- Jonathan reiterates the question of Trump's motivations: bad advice, ignorance, compromise, or a combination.
US-Russia Diplomat Meeting Denied and Victoria Spartz's Pro-Russian Shift🎦 01:12:02-01:14:14⏩
- Euronews reported a US-Russia diplomat meeting planned for February 25th, but Russia's foreign ministry denied it. Jonathan suspects the meeting may still occur.
- He discusses Victoria Spartz, a Ukrainian-born US congresswoman who has shifted to a "full-on anti-Ukraine" stance, echoing Russian propaganda and MAGA talking points to secure re-election.
- Spartz's pro-Russian statements, including echoing Elon Musk's false claims about Zelenskyy, are presented as examples of MAGA influence and the spread of Russian disinformation.
- Jonathan notes that even Republicans are acknowledging Spartz has been "lost" to MAGA extremism.
Return to top⤴️
Conclusion and Context: MAGA Aiming at Republican Hawks
- Jonathan recommends reading the Politico article "MAGA Takes Aim at the Republican Hawks" for deeper context on the internal dynamics within the Trump administration.
- He hopes the video has provided greater context for the complex and concerning situation.
- He apologizes for the video's length, attributing it to the volume of important information to cover.
Channel Update and Jiggerspaw Fundraising Appeal
- Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, especially those still present after an hour and 15 minutes.
- He reminds viewers about the Jiggerspaw fundraising campaign for thermal drones for Ukraine, with a donation link below.
- He requests that donors include "ATP for Triad" in the comment/reference field when donating to help track donations for the campaign.
- He concludes by thanking viewers and promising to speak to them again soon.
Wrap up
- Jonathan signs off, thanking viewers for watching and saying goodbye.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Everything was understood.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Your thought process
I need to summarise the provided transcript of a YouTube video by ATP Geopolitics, following the 6 tasks outlined.
First, I will tackle Task 1, extracting the Title, Date, and Part from the video title and formatting them in XML.
Then, I will move on to Task 2, splitting the transcript into topics and creating specific topic titles, ensuring to include "Hello Team" and "Wrap up" topics, and using correct spellings and British English.
For Task 3, I will identify the timestamps for each topic from the transcript and format them correctly in XML, ensuring the IDs match the topic titles.
In Task 4, I will write detailed summaries for each topic, incorporating context, Jonathan's opinions, and any relevant sources, using markdown for emphasis and maintaining British English and Ukrainian spellings.
Task 5 involves selecting a significant quote from the transcript, ensuring it's concise and understandable out of context, and formatting it in XML.
Finally, for Task 6, I will record any queries or unclear parts of the transcript or tasks in XML format, or note if everything was understood.
Throughout the process, I will double-check that the XML output is correctly structured and all instructions are followed, especially the correct use of `` tag and closing tags.
