Ukraine Conflict: (Yesterday's) Full Frontline Update

"If they're [Russia] relying on some random dude on the south coast of UK ... for their military strategies then they really are in trouble"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:50⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the latest frontline update, warning viewers it's a little late at night. He lets everyone know that he'll be busy with his son's football and rugby this weekend so content may be limited and at unusual times.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Frontline Update

🎦 00:50-02:14⏩

Jonathan begins with the northeastern axis of the frontline, from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna. He observes that there are a number of Russian advances in the area, particularly around the settlements of Kizlivka and Kotelyarivka. Jonathan notes that Suret Maps (a pro-Russian source) is a little more "charitable" in its assessment than other sources. He concludes that it has been a tough week for the Ukrainians in this sector and that things are "not looking too promising".

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Bilohorivka (Svatove Frontline) Update

🎦 02:14-04:52⏩

Moving south to Bilohorivka on the Svatove front, Jonathan describes the topography of the area. He shares information from Tatarogami, who reported that Ukrainian forces in the area have successfully repelled Russian assaults despite the difficult situation. He observes differences between the maps produced by different sources, including DeepState map, Andrew Perpetua and Suret maps. He notes some Ukrainian gains east of Yampolivka but suggests that Suret Maps is inaccurate in showing Russian control west of the chalk pit, an area which Jonathan believes is more likely a 'grey zone'. He highlights further discrepancies between different sources' mapping along the Svierodonetsk front. Jonathan reiterates his view that it's useful to see the different interpretations, as it helps viewers to assess the likely reality. He closes this section by noting that there have been no significant changes in the Chaviv Yar area but that Andrew Perpetua's map shows some small Russian advances just south of Ivanivske, north of Klishchiivka.

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Avdiivka-Donetsk Frontline Update

🎦 04:52-12:08⏩

Jonathan now moves to the area where "it's all happening", the zone between Ocheretyne and Novokalynove. He notes that all of the sources agree that Russia is making significant gains in the area. He suggests that some Ukrainian troops may be trapped in a salient near Keramik. Jonathan believes that Ocheretyne and the surrounding area are now under Russian control, with Russian troops pushing north. He speculates that their objectives may be to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines, potentially pushing towards Kostiantynivka. Turning to the area south of Pervomaiske, Jonathan observes that Andrew Perpetua's map now aligns with other sources, showing that the area southeast of the settlement is likely under Russian control. He notes a small adjustment to the frontline, northwest of Netailove. Next, Jonathan reports that there is no news from Krasnohorivka and Marinka, describing this as "good news" as the situation has been worrying there recently. He notes, however, considerable differences between the maps produced by different sources, with Suret Maps showing Russian forces deep inside Krasnohorivka whilst other sources show a "rough grey zone" of urban fighting. Returning to the Avdiivka salient, Jonathan cites a report from Suret Maps indicating new Russian advances between Keramik and Arkhanhelske, claiming Russian troops now control 60% of the area. Clashes are reported to the north and northwest of Ocheretyne. Suret Maps also reports that Russian forces have taken control of trenches north of Keramik, claiming that the Ukrainian army has withdrawn from the northern part of Arkhanhelske and adjacent trench systems. Jonathan concludes this section with a brief update on Novomlynsk, noting a small but as yet unconfirmed advance northeast of the settlement, towards Pervomaiske. He also notes a visually confirmed Russian gain in the northwest of Novomlynsk, which may simply be confirmation of existing control rather than a new advance.

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Velyka Novosilka Update

🎦 12:08-13:12⏩

Moving south past Vuhledar to the Velyka Novosilka sector, Jonathan observes that Syriac Maps shows Ukrainian forces being pushed back into the northern part of Urozhaine, a development now corroborated by Suret Maps. However, Andrew Perpetua's map continues to show the Russian control line along the Mokri Yaly River. Jonathan reports that there has been serious fighting in the area over the past week. He cites a Suret Maps report which claims that Russian forces are continuing to advance south of Urozhaine, having taken control of most of the warehouses there and secured part of the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly.

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Wider Frontline and Analysis

🎦 13:12-17:54⏩

Jonathan concludes his frontline update by stating there are no changes in Robotyne or along the Dnipro River. He speculates that Russian forces will continue to push in the Ocheretyne area and will have their eyes on capturing both Krasnohorivka and Kostiantynivka. He wonders what reserves Russia has at its disposal, referring to reports that they are currently refurbishing and stockpiling equipment, training soldiers and amassing troops. He questions why Russia would choose to hold back these reserves, rather than deploying them now, given that Ukraine will likely be much stronger by the summer when it has taken delivery of more western aid, including F-16s. He suggests this could be a similar error to that made by Ukraine, when it waited to launch its counteroffensive in 2023, allowing Russia to strengthen its defences in the meantime. Jonathan offers his personal opinion, which is that Russia should be throwing everything it has at the Ukrainian lines now. He cites a report that Russia senses weakness in the Ukrainian position and are opportunistically taking advantage, but believes this is more likely a case of Russia using up its remaining resources and that this strategy will eventually backfire. Jonathan jokes that the Russians are very unlikely to be taking military advice from a "random dude" on the south coast of England.

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Wrap Up

🎦 17:54-17:59⏩

Jonathan signs off, thanking viewers and reminding them that content may be online at unusual times over the weekend.

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