Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"Germany should be ready to do even more if others weaken. Damn straight. Absolutely. And brilliant. And thank you for saying that."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for Part 2 of the Ukraine War Update for 10/12/2023. Today's video will cover military aid updates and other geopolitical news.
Return to top⤴️
UK: BAE Systems artillery shell production update
🎦 00:14-01:48⏩
Jonathan shares an update from Jakub Janowski from Oryx about UK Artillery shell production. BAE systems will be able to produce 1.5 million large calibre artillery shells each year. This is a significant increase and is good news for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine: Ukraine ramps up indigenous weapons production with US and Italian Support.
🎦 01:48-06:50⏩
The US and Ukraine are working together to increase Ukraine's weapons manufacturing ability. The US-Ukraine conference on Mutual Defence took place on 6-7th December. The conference was attended by 350 representatives from the US, Ukraine and European defence industries. Oleksandr Komyshin (Ukraine's Minister of Strategic Industries) believes that Ukraine has an opportunity to shorten the innovation cycle. Jonathan highlights how Western nations can all benefit from the R&D in Ukraine in terms of their own defence needs, citing trench warfare, artillery, drones and the innovation driven by the conflict. He provides some examples of this in practice e.g. BAE Systems working with Ukraine will benefit the UK, US and NATO. Ukraine's strategy is to reduce it's reliance on external sources for essential equipment. Ukraine and Italian defence companies are collaborating to advance the Ukrainian defence industry. Jonathan reports that five Italian companies have already joined the Defence Industries Alliance which comprises 74 companies from over 20 countries.
Return to top⤴️
Argentina: Zelensky meets with new Argentinian President. Argentina to transfer Mil Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine.
🎦 06:50-07:51⏩
Zelensky visits Argentina for the inauguration of the new Argentinian president. Argentina will transfer Mil Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Military Aid Update: F-18, Gripen and UAV/UGV Updates
🎦 07:51-11:40⏩
Update on potential F-18 transfer from Australia (41 aircraft) - 14 might be ready within 4-6 months but Jonathan is unsure as to how far discussions have progressed. Update on Gripen fighter jet. Yuri Ihnat (spokesman for the Ukrainian airforce) has stated that whilst Gripens are "being considered", F-16s remain the main combat aircraft for Ukraine. Jonathan provides his analysis, concluding that discussion about Gripens are further along than has been formally disclosed and is sceptical given previous comments by Ihnat about not wanting more than 2 airframes to manage the logistics. Jonathan observes an increase in the use of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) by Russia for tasks such as medevac and the transportation of ammunition.
Return to top⤴️
Poland: Polish KTO Rosomak Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs) now in Ukraine
🎦 11:40-13:27⏩
Jonathan reports the first sighting of a Polish KTO Rosomak APC. Jonathan reminds viewers that Ukraine has not deployed a lot the equipment provided by Western nations. He reminds viewers that the situation in Ukraine is not as bad as some are reporting - highlighting the fact that Challenger 2 tanks, Abrams tanks and Leopard 1 and 2 tanks are yet to be deployed. Jonathan provides further information about the Rosomak, describing it as an armoured personnel carrier that can be fitted with various weapons systems.
Return to top⤴️
Military Aid: US - Analysis of arguments against US Military Aid to Ukraine.
🎦 13:27-17:31⏩
Jonathan shares Randy Mott's (Republican) tweet highlighting the arguments for continuing to provide Military Aid to Ukraine. Jonathan examines each point, agreeing with Mott and provides further analysis:
- Budget: Existing Equipment that has already been paid for.
- New Equipment: If new equipment is sent it will be an upgraded version so the US benefits.
- NATO: If the West does not support Ukraine now, will they support other weaker NATO members in the future?
- European Aid: European aid is almost double that of the US. What happens to US influence in Europe if aid is stopped?
- China/Russia: How will cutting aid be perceived by Russia and China, particularly in terms of deterrence.
- Strong Russia: Does the US want a stronger Russia and future attacks?
- Cost/Benefit: Military aid equates to 0.06% of the US Federal Budget. Is this really the best place to cut spending?
- Ukraine can win: What evidence is there that Ukraine cannot win and restore it's borders?
- Russian victory: What does the US gain from a Russian victory?
Jonathan is frustrated by the lack of support from some quarters in the US given the current climate with Putin feeling emboldened.
Return to top⤴️
Finland/Russia: Russia recruiting migrants on Finnish Border
🎦 17:31-22:07⏩
Russia is recruiting migrants on the Finnish border to fight in Ukraine (Source BBC News). This is part of a pattern of coercion with Russia targeting those in pre-deportation detention centres. Finland temporarily closed it's border with Russia after joining NATO. Jonathan addresses Bertold's comments about whether this is disinformation. He gives examples of Finnish Intelligence, Finnish Foreign Minister statements and includes evidence from interviews with migrants who claim to have been coerced/paid by Russian police to travel to the border. Some migrants were told they would be forced to join the army if they didn't pay to be taken to the border. Analysis of court cases in regions bordering Finland show that large numbers of people are being arrested for visa violations. This then leads to the "Crypto Mobilization" that Jonathan has previously talked about - i.e. forcing prisoners and migrants to sign up.
Return to top⤴️
Iran: Russia upgrades Iranian Shahed drones
🎦 22:07-22:56⏩
Iranian Shahed drones have been upgraded and fitted with jet engines. This has increased the speed (up to 800km per hour), payload (7-8kg) and navigation according to a Russian pilot. Jonathan advises viewers to take this with a pinch of salt.
Return to top⤴️
Germany: Olaf Scholz pledges more support for Ukraine
🎦 22:56-28:42⏩
Jonathan praises Olaf Scholz for his speech at the SPD party conference, highlighting his strong rhetoric. Jonathan believes that this is what the world needs to hear right now. Germany needs to step up and support Ukraine, particularly if the US reduces it's support. Jonathan believes that Scholz has had a "lightbulb moment" and is now taking the lead in terms of standing up to Russia. He plays a two minute extract from Scholz's speech. Key points include:
- Germany will continue to support Ukraine with financial aid and weapons.
- Germany will step up to fill the void if other countries weaken their resolve.
- The world needs to send a clear message to Putin.
- The war will not be over quickly and support is needed this year, next year and beyond.
Jonathan is impressed by the positive reception Scholz receives and feels that he is saying and doing all of the right things.
Return to top⤴️
US/Russia: Tucker Carlson spreads Russian Disinformation
🎦 28:42-36:23⏩
Jonathan is angered by Tucker Carlson who has misrepresented comments made by Lloyd Austin (US Secretary of Defence) about the need for NATO to put boots on the ground in the event of an attack on a NATO country. Jonathan is particularly annoyed because Carlson's comments are being used by Russian State TV to push the false narrative that the US is threatening to send troops to fight in Ukraine. Carlson has also given a platform to Gonzalo Lira (described as a "Putin Puppet"). Carlson claims that Lira is an American Citizen imprisoned in Ukraine for criticising Zelensky. This is untrue. Sean Pinner has confirmed that Lira was arrested for attempting to skip bail after he was arrested for filming the location of Ukrainian troops. Jonathan criticises Elon Musk for echoing the same disinformation. Jonathan suspects that Carlson is being paid by Russia (via Hungary) through the Heritage Foundation and has written an article: "Carson, Heritage, Russia - Follow the Money". Jonathan provides further detail about how this works, highlighting the link between the Heritage Foundation, The Danube Institute, The Pathanik Foundation, The Hungarian State, Russia and Viktor Orban. Jonathan is concerned about the impact disinformation is having on public opinion and cites a recent poll suggesting that 30% of Americans think that the US is giving too much aid to Ukraine. Jonathan shares comments made by Pekka Kalilanaimi - highlighting how both Carlson and Musk are happy to criticise Ukraine but fail to mention Russia - because they are both dependant on the country. Jonathan provides further detail about why this is the case - alleging that Carlson (potentially Trump's next VP) needs Russia for "domestic propaganda" and Musk needs Russia for raw materials for his companies (Tesla and SpaceX). Jonathan finds it galling that Carlson is happy to platform someone like Alex Jones - a conspiracy theorist who claimed that the Sandy Hook massacre was a false flag. Jonathan concludes that both Musk and Carlson are content to "throw a nation under a bus" for money, power and attention.
Return to top⤴️
EU: Strengthening EU Security and the Ukrainian Army.
🎦 36:23-36:34⏩
The next meeting of the EU council of Foreign Affairs will focus on strengthening EU Security and the Ukrainian Army. (Source: Josep Borrell - Head of EU Diplomacy)
Return to top⤴️
North Korea: US, South Korea and Japan to step up pressure on North Korea.
🎦 36:34-37:15⏩
The US, South Korea and Japan will increase cooperation to create a united front against North Korea (Source: Jake Sullivan - US National Security Advisor). North Korea is using cyber attacks to fund it's nuclear weapons programme. Jonathan highlights the importance of Japan and South Korea to the US.
Return to top⤴️
Cape Verde: Zelensky meets with Prime Minister of Cape Verde.
🎦 37:15-38:16⏩
Zelensky met with the Prime Minister of Cape Verde on his way to Argentina. Although Cape Verde is a relatively insignificant nation geopolitically, Zelensky recognises the importance of securing votes at the UN.
Return to top⤴️
Hungary/Ukraine: Hungarian truckers are preparing to strike.
🎦 38:16-38:39⏩
Hungarian truck drivers are preparing to strike (in solidarity with Polish and Slovakian truck drivers). It is hoped that they will not block military aid to Ukraine, although similar promises were made in Poland.
Return to top⤴️
South China Sea: China increases it's presence in the South China Sea.
🎦 38:39-39:42⏩
100 Chinese maritime militia ships have blockaded the Whitsun Reef in the Philippines. This is preventing Filipino fishermen from accessing an area they have worked in for decades. Jonathan believes that China is flexing its muscles, emboldened by events in Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Russia/China: Analysis of Russia and China's economic fragility
🎦 39:42-47:24⏩
Jonathan shares Nakmail's more positive outlook. Russia is weaker than ever and China is dependant on US investment. Jonathan acknowledges that this could change if the US were to pursue an isolationist agenda. Jonathan shares data from Joe Blogs (Twitter) showing how the price of Russian Urals crude oil has fallen. He provides context, explaining that when the war started the price of oil increased. When the G7 oil cap was introduced this caused the price to fall. Russia found other ways to sell its oil and the price went back up. More recently, the price has fallen again and is now at a level that is causing problems for Russia. Jonathan analyses the reasons for this - highlighting Putin's recent trips to the UAE and Saudi Arabia to persuade them to cut oil production. OPEC+ (which includes Russia) agreed to cut output in June 2023. Whilst this has a short term impact on revenue, it generally leads to an increase in price. However, the US has been able to counter this by increasing supply. Jonathan explains why a US, Canada and Brazil OPEC cartel is unlikely (it would mean that they would control the price). The US has capitalised on Russia's reduced output by increasing its own to record levels - 13.2 million barrels per day (a new high). Jonathan believes that this is a really positive development.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 47:24-47:40⏩
Jonathan thanks everyone for watching.
Return to top⤴️
