Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Biden, as if Biden's recruiting Prigozhin. I mean, seriously, come on."
Hello Team!
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the Ukraine War news update for 29th June 2023, noting there is a lot of news to cover.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 680 liquidated Russian personnel, which is fairly high
- Lower troop losses but higher equipment losses compared to the previous day
- 2 tanks, 10 APVs taken out (possibly due to lack of tanks left in Russian defences)
- 27 artillery systems destroyed, a significant blow given recent low numbers
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, possibly an S300 targeted in Tokmak
- 1 aircraft damaged by an Igla MANPADS, managed to return to base
- 14 drones, 6 vehicles and fuel tanks, 6 pieces of special equipment lost
Igla Takes Out Su-25
Footage shown of a 9K38 Igla MANPADS hitting a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft near Bakhmut. The aircraft was damaged but may have survived and returned to base, as has happened before.
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Russian General Injured
Interior Ministry General Alexander Travnikov was involved in a serious all-terrain vehicle "accident" and is in critical condition in hospital. Jonathan questions whether it was indeed an accident, comparing it to the recent spate of Russians falling out of windows.
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Downed IL-22 Crew Expertise
The 10 airmen killed when Wagner shot down a Russian IL-22 aircraft during the recent mutiny had a combined 17,600 flight hours, representing a huge loss of expertise for Russia.
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Strikes on Tokmak
- 6 explosions heard in Tokmak, possibly from a pod of HIMARS rockets
- Separate unconfirmed reports of a strike on a Russian S300 air defence site in the city
- Destroying enemy air defences will be crucial for Ukraine going forward
Russian Base Struck
Footage shown of a Russian base hit by what are claimed to be Ukrainian glide bombs (likely JDAM kits), with significant damage and personnel casualties. The explosions look consistent with JDAM munitions, which haven't been used extensively so far, possibly due to Russian GPS jamming.
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Other Strikes
- An oil and fat processing plant is on fire in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
- The Russian who directed artillery fire on Kramatorsk, killing civilians at a pizza restaurant, has been arrested by Ukraine's SBU
- The attack is considered a war crime by Jonathan, with the Russian excuses of the presence of some military personnel insufficient justification for targeting a civilian eatery
Prigozhin's Mutiny Plans
- US intelligence leaks suggest Prigozhin planned to capture Russian Defence Minister Shoigu and Chief of Staff Gerasimov during the mutiny
- The plot was rushed and ultimately failed after the FSB learned of it 48 hours in advance
- Gerasimov was in Rostov-on-Don when Wagner captured the city but managed to escape
- The plan then changed to kidnapping Shoigu near Moscow before the deal to end the mutiny was made
Missing General Surovikin
- General Sergei Surovikin's whereabouts are unknown amidst rumours of his arrest for Wagner links
- He is an honorary Wagner member, having been given a PMC badge in 2017 according to Mikhail Khodorkovsky's Dossier Centre
- The organisation claims it will expose other senior Russians with Wagner ties, potentially causing issues in the Kremlin
Zelensky Meets 47th Brigade Soldier
- Zelensky met with a soldier from the 47th Mechanised Brigade famed for his frontline updates
- The President said it was important to get first-hand information on troop morale and spirit, especially given the brigade's active role in current operations
- The soldier took a selfie with Zelensky, who made a hand gesture, conveying a youthful vibe that contrasts with Putin's image
Putin's Dagestan Visit
- Putin visited Dagestan and was seen closely interacting with people, shaking hands, embracing and taking selfies
- This contrasts with his germaphobe reputation and typical isolation behind long tables
- Some are questioning if it is a body double, given the change in behaviour and appearance
- Even Russian military blogger Igor Girkin suggested it was a doppelgänger who does not require the usual two-week quarantine to meet Putin
Frontline Advances
- Ukrainian forces have seized the initiative and are advancing on broad front near Bakhmut and in Donetsk & Zaporizhzhia oblasts
- Gains of 1200-1500m made south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka
- Advances of 1300m towards Berdyansk in Zaporizhzhia
- Russians are retreating in northern Bakhmut, which is now fully controlled by Ukraine from the air according to Commander Yaroslavsky
- Capture of Klishchiivka and Berdyansk would put Bakhmut in an operational encirclement
- Heavy fighting reported in Klishchiivka, which Ukraine is "practically in"
- A Russian VDV company surrendered near Kurdyumivka
- Wagner claims Ukraine has expanded the grey zone around Orikhiv and entrenched in new positions near Pryiutne and Rivnopil
- Russian counterattacks failed near Rivnopil
- Ukraine has cleared a minefield at the entrance to Robotyne and advanced near Zaliznyanske north of Bakhmut
Military Aid
- US public support for sending weapons to Ukraine has risen sharply from 46% in May to 65% now according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll (81% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans, 57% of Independents)
- Senator Risch says there is a high possibility of sending ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine
- Israel is blocking the US from giving Iron Dome air defence systems to Ukraine, fearing the technology could reach Iran via Russia
- Lithuania is donating 10 more M113 APCs and ammunition to Ukraine
Opinions on Crossing Dnieper
Military analyst Trent Telenko believes Ukraine can successfully cross the Dnipro River at the Kakhovka Reservoir, dismissing sceptics who say it is too difficult. He argues the cracked dry ground is suitable for the BV206 all-terrain vehicles Ukraine has received, which have lower ground pressure than a human. Helicopters could also be used.
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Naval Strike Missiles for Ukraine
Ukraine is negotiating with Poland to purchase a coastal defence system with NSM anti-ship missiles. With a 250km range, they could potentially hit the Russian naval base in Sevastopol from Kherson oblast. Storm Shadow missiles have not been used for this, possibly due to strong Russian air defences in Crimea or UK restrictions.
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Other News
- Switzerland has blocked the re-export of 96 Leopard 1 tanks from Germany to Ukraine due to its neutrality laws, in a move that harms both Ukraine and Swiss arms manufacturers
- Ukraine will sign bilateral security agreements with the US, UK, Germany and France covering long-term funding, weapons supplies, training and intelligence sharing
- The presidents of Poland and Lithuania made separate surprise visits to Kyiv to meet Zelensky on Ukrainian Constitution Day
- Croatia has become the 13th country to recognise the 1930s Soviet Holodomor famine as a genocide against Ukrainians
- Putin's admission that Russia gave Wagner $1 billion in the last year alone could see Russia designated a state sponsor of terrorism for funding the mercenary group
Far Right Surge in Greece
Jonathan discusses his recent article on the rise of the far right in the Greek elections. Three parties with neo-fascist elements (Spartans, Greek Solution and Niki) won a combined 13% of the vote on a platform of anti-immigration, Orthodox Christianity, Euroscepticism and pro-Russian views. He sees this as part of a disturbing resurgence of the extreme right in Europe and wonders how it might impact Greece's limited support for Ukraine so far.
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China's Renewable Energy Push
China is on track to reach its 2030 wind and solar energy goals five years early, with 1200 GW of capacity expected by 2025. It already has more solar power than the rest of the world combined, with huge projects under construction. Jonathan believes this is part of a long-term strategy to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and achieve energy independence, even as China buys discounted oil and gas in the short term.
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Wrap up
Jonathan hopes the 42-minute news summary was interesting and coherent. He is amazed he can speak for so long without a break and jokes that his brain must still be working okay. He asks viewers to like, subscribe and share the video, expressing appreciation for their support.
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