Ukraine War Update: Kursk Attack News & Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"A non-existent plan is one of the KGB's specialities."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:11⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers back from his holiday in Mexico, sharing pictures of swimming with dolphins with his sons.
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Eastern Front Challenges
🎦 00:11-01:05⏩
Jonathan highlights the serious challenges faced by Ukrainians on the Eastern Front, particularly in Novodarivka and Toretsk, where Russian attacks are intensifying. He observes that Russian reserves, mainly conscripts, are being deployed to both the Eastern Front and to counter the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk.
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Kursk/oblast Update: River Crossings & Bridge Attacks
🎦 01:05-02:02⏩
Jonathan discusses the river running through the Kursk Oblast, noting reports of Russian troops withdrawing across it. He also mentions the destruction of three bridges - at Karizj, Glushkovo and Kvanoia - which may disrupt Russian logistics. A pontoon bridge is also mentioned, but its status is uncertain.
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Ukrainian Gains & Russian Resistance
🎦 02:02-03:22⏩
Reviewing the latest maps from Andrew Perpetua, Jonathan observes that Ukrainian territorial gains appear to be slowing. He speculates that this is due to increasing Russian resistance, the Ukrainians' forces becoming more spread out and the need for consolidation. Jonathan questions if it's cost-effective for Ukraine to continue pushing or if they should focus on fortifying their current positions.
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Specific Locations in Kursk/oblast
🎦 03:22-04:09⏩
Jonathan points out specific locations on the map:
- Vishnevka, Apanosovka, and Komorovka: These areas are likely under Ukrainian control, but their status is not completely certain.
- Ukrainian forces are also advancing north of Sudzha and around Sojia.
- Russians are counterattacking from the east, particularly in the southern part of the salient.
Military Equipment & Losses: Tanks & MRAPS
🎦 04:09-05:21⏩
Jonathan details equipment losses and captures based on reports:
- Ukrainians have captured a T-62M tank.
- Russians captured a couple of Ukrainian MRAPs (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles) and APCs (Armoured Personnel Carriers). Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians primarily employ these for maneuver warfare.
- Ukrainians also captured a T-90M, Russia's most advanced breakthrough tank. This is the second T-90M captured in the Kursk region, and it's reportedly in good condition, ready to be used by Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian AASM Hammer Strike
🎦 05:21-05:54⏩
Jonathan discusses a Ukrainian fighter jet strike using a French-supplied AASM Hammer guided glide bomb. The target was supposedly an underground command post, but the footage, showing only burning grass, leaves Jonathan questioning the claim.
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Russian Claims & Propaganda
🎦 05:54-06:46⏩
Jonathan mentions Russian figures like Apti Aladnov and Ramzan Kadyrov making unsubstantiated claims. He also addresses Russian reports about Ukrainian forces present in Raskoia and Prokhorovka, highlighting discrepancies in the information and delays in Russian reporting.
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The Economist: Western Allies & Kursk Incursion
🎦 06:46-08:33⏩
Jonathan cites a report from The Economist stating that Western allies were deliberately kept in the dark about the Kursk incursion plans. This was likely a strategic move by General Syrsky to maintain operational security and prevent leaks to Russia. Jonathan explains how even informing allies could compromise a surprise attack due to the risk of information spreading. He suggests that Ukraine might have masked the build-up of troops and equipment in the Sumy Oblast by framing it as a defensive measure against a potential Russian attack. This deception would have allowed Ukraine to achieve the element of surprise, which has been crucial to their success in Kursk.
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Lithuanian Ambassador: Russian Forces in Trouble
🎦 08:33-09:12⏩
Jonathan shares the optimistic perspective of Lithuania's ambassador and former defence minister, Linas Linkevicius, who believes Russian forces in Kursk are facing significant difficulties. Linkevicius states that thousands of Russian conscripts have surrendered to survive, and regular troops are on the verge of being encircled. He dismisses Russia's claims of the situation being under control as propaganda, highlighting the lack of a real plan. Jonathan acknowledges these are dynamic events and the information is a day old. He notes a humorous response from Euromaidan Press, stating "a non-existent plan is one of the KGB's specialities."
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Ukrainian Offensive: Just the Beginning?
🎦 09:12-10:18⏩
Jonathan cites Ukrainian officials who claim the offensive in the Kursk region is merely the first stage of a larger operation. They emphasize that this offensive is distinct from previous raids in the Belgorod region. However, the specific details of the plan and the number of troops Ukraine is willing to commit remain unclear. Some analysts believe resources would be better allocated to countering Russian advances in the Donetsk region. However, according to The Economist, Ukrainian President Zelensky is determined to achieve maximum progress in Kursk, aiming to strengthen Ukraine's position in future negotiations.
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John Halian's Counter-Analysis of Kursk Offensive
🎦 10:18-13:10⏩
Jonathan presents a counter-analysis by John Halian, who offers a more cautious perspective on the Kursk offensive, challenging the overly optimistic assessment of an unnamed analyst. Halian criticises the unnamed analyst's analysis for several reasons:
- It focuses solely on the initial tactical successes of the Ukrainians, ignoring the long-term strategic picture.
- It doesn't consider the risks involved in the operation, nor does it question the clarity of its objectives.
- It overlooks Russia's ability to slow down and, in some cases, halt the Ukrainian advance using limited resources.
- It fails to acknowledge the potential negative consequences, such as the redeployment of experienced Ukrainian units from the front line, which may have contributed to the rapid Russian advance in Prokovsk.
- It ignores the fact that Russia's advance toward Prokovsk brings them closer to their strategic objective of capturing the entire Donbas region.
While acknowledging the initial Ukrainian tactical success, Halian argues it was likely due to superior force rather than strategic brilliance. He doesn't completely dismiss the benefits of the offensive, citing boosts to Ukrainian morale, prisoner exchanges, potential easing of restrictions on weapons supplies (specifically mentioning JASM cruise missiles), and the effectiveness of operational secrecy. However, he questions the long-term strategic value of the offensive and believes more time is needed to assess its impact fully.
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Jonathan's Assessment & Speculation
🎦 13:10-14:52⏩
Jonathan provides his own perspective on the Kursk offensive, acknowledging the uncertainties and speculation surrounding its objectives. He questions whether the offensive has successfully established a buffer zone between Kursk and Sumy. While Ukrainian advances have created some distance, Russian artillery could still potentially reach Sumy. He highlights the area south of the Seim River as potentially significant in the coming days and speculates whether Ukraine will attempt to link up forces across the border. He concludes by acknowledging the contrasting analyses of Tendar (optimistic) and John Halian (cautious), leaving viewers to form their own conclusions.
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Pro-Russian Bloggers & Civilian Evacuation
🎦 14:52-16:51⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to pro-Russian war bloggers who are encouraging civilians in the districts of Rilsk and Lugov to evacuate. While these areas are likely out of reach for Ukrainian forces, pro-Russian sources are increasingly concerned about the situation. Jonathan points out the vulnerability of the road connecting these two towns, which falls within the range of Ukrainian drones. He cites Tendar's assessment that the situation is becoming increasingly chaotic, particularly in the districts of Sudzha and Kshukovo. According to Tendar, Russian units, especially those from the Akhmat group, have resorted to looting, pillaging, and even committing acts of sexual violence against the local Russian population in these areas.
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Concluding Remarks & Kursk Offensive Trajectory
🎦 16:51-17:43⏩
Jonathan concludes his analysis by reiterating that while the Kursk offensive has been advantageous for Ukraine so far, maintaining momentum will become increasingly difficult. He anticipates that the Russians will fortify their defenses and deploy more troops, making further Ukrainian advances more challenging. He emphasizes the importance of monitoring the situation south of the Seim River, hinting at its potential significance.
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Wrap Up
🎦 17:43-18:54⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and explains his recent absence, attributing it to a two-week holiday in Mexico. He shares anecdotes and photos from his trip, including swimming with dolphins with his sons.
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