Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"We don't have another Ukraine we can move to."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is on holiday and forgot his laptop charger and webcam. He apologizes that this update may be one of his last as his laptop battery is low. Despite the delay, he will cover the latest news.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
The Ukrainian General Staff reported the following Russian losses for the previous day:
- 620 killed in action
- 4 tanks, 2 APVs (low numbers)
- 32 artillery systems (another massive day)
- 12 drones
- 30 vehicles and fuel tanks (logistics hit hard)
- 6 pieces of special equipment (significant)
Russia is losing large numbers of artillery and the logistics to support them (ammunition, fuel). This hampers their defensive capabilities.
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Strikes and Incidents
- Explosion reported at an Iskander missile plant in Russia. Unclear if sabotage or accident. Awaiting details on damage.
- Footage of a Russian T-90M tank, one of their most modern tanks, being destroyed. More of these high-quality tanks are being lost recently as Russia is forced to use them due to losses of other tanks.
- The Financial Times reports the systematic erosion of Russian artillery has been a turning point, allowing Ukrainian howitzers to deliver sustained fire and reducing Russia's ability to kill infantry emerging from minefields.
- Ukrainian maritime drone strikes continue to be the focus:
- The landing ship Oleg Gorsky was struck and seen being towed to Novorossiysk port in bad shape. It is being supported by naval and civilian rescue ships but likely out of action for some time.
- Footage released of the maritime drone strike on the Russian SIG oil tanker. The video shows the Ukrainians knew exactly what ship they were targeting. The SIG has a history as a sanctions violator and supporting Russian military efforts in Syria according to the US Treasury. OSINT research shows it making regular trips to Baniyas, Syria to deliver jet fuel.
- The SIG has not spilled oil and is being towed by rescue ships who are trying to patch the hole. The crew are uninjured.
- Russians reacted to the Black Sea incidents, claiming the only way to stop them is to capture Odessa and Mykolaiv, which is impossible. They accuse NATO of involvement.
- Ukraine declared 6 Russian Black Sea ports (Taman, Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi) as areas of war risk effective immediately. This will likely impact the ability of ships to get insurance to trade at those ports, affecting Russia's international trade. China may step in to insure the ships.
- Claims of strikes on the Crimean bridge but unclear if confirmed.
Military Aid
- The first group of 8 Ukrainian pilots fluent in English has been formed to begin F-16 training. Another 20 pilots will take English courses in the UK before starting F-16 training. No start date announced yet.
- Lithuania is providing Ukraine with NASAMS launchers (surface-to-air missile systems), counter-drones, logistics equipment and more.
- Bulgaria officially approved the delivery of about 100 armored personnel carriers (older Soviet-era BTR-60s) to Ukraine. Bulgaria will likely be backfilled with more modern vehicles.
- Ukraine received 2 mine-clearing tanks (Wisent 1), 11 mine plows for T-72s from Germany last week. Germany also plans to send 40 Marder IFVs and 6 Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicles. However, there are reports Germany is slowing down weapon deliveries (more on this later).
- Ukraine received British ASRAAM IR anti-aircraft missiles mounted on trucks. These have a 25km range, allowing Ukraine to hit Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters that were previously able to stay out of range of MANPADs. It will be interesting to see if more Ka-52s are downed with these.
Other News
- Russia seems to have flown almost all of its helicopters out of Belarus back to Russia, leaving only 1 chopper in Belarus. This may indicate Russia needs those airframes in Ukraine as they run low.
- A Ukrainian special forces kayak was shown fitted with an 18kg automatic grenade launcher. The silent kayaks are useful for clandestine operations around the Dnipro River delta.
- Russia doubled its defense spending to over $100B in 2023, a third of all government spending. Combined with economic problems, it's a "big hot mess".
- Leaked communications show the extent of Russian infiltration in Germany's far-right AfD party. Their active measures included a plan to use frivolous lawsuits to slow Germany's delivery of tanks to Ukraine. AfD has espoused pro-Putin, anti-NATO views and filed a lawsuit on July 5 to hinder the government's ability to send Leopard 2s, using a pretext that the deliveries were not agreed with the Bundestag. AfD members allegedly received instructions and speech texts from the Kremlin aimed at reducing support for Ukraine.
- Russian court sentenced opposition leader Alexei Navalny to a further 19 years in prison on likely politically motivated charges. He has been given cumulative sentences of 3 decades, which will keep him behind bars and out of politics as long as Putin is alive.
- Wagner head Prigozhin said he supports the coup in Niger. Unconfirmed reports that Niger's new military government signed contracts for Wagner militia from Mali to deploy to the capital in case of intervention by ECOWAS states.
- Talks began in Saudi Arabia with Zelensky on ending the war. No Russians are present but Chinese diplomats are. It's an opportunity for Ukraine and allies to present evidence of Russian actions to neutral nations to try to sway them to support Ukraine. The Saudis are positioning themselves as power brokers for influence in the post-hydrocarbon world.
Wrap up
Jonathan hopes he has enough battery to do several more updates. He apologizes again and asks viewers to like, subscribe and share. He thanks them for their support.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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