Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is a game of military chicken where I think the ukrainians have done this to see if the russians crumble but there's a chance that the ukrainians could crumble in in kursk because of the advances that the russians are making into prokofsk"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:38⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers back after his holiday and explains that this geopolitical update will be the last one for a couple of days as he'll be travelling. He may be able to squeeze out a hits and losses video tomorrow morning but just in case, today's will be a bit longer to make up for it.
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Kim Dotcom to be extradited to the US from New Zealand
🎦 00:38-04:55⏩
Jonathan begins by discussing the case of Kim Dotcom, describing him as a conspiracy theorist and pro-Russian disinformation spreader. He welcomes the news that Dotcom will be extradited from New Zealand to the US to face charges related to copyright infringement and racketeering. He expresses hope that this will reduce the spread of misinformation.
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Georgian Dream and the Pro-Russian Disinformation Machine
🎦 04:55-16:02⏩
Jonathan highlights the sophisticated disinformation machine operated by Georgian Dream, the ruling party in Georgia, with support from Russia. This network utilises fake accounts, fictitious news websites, and manipulation of social media to spread pro-Russian propaganda and discredit pro-Western voices. Jonathan expresses his frustration that the West doesn't have similar troll farms or information propagation systems to counter disinformation. He argues for fighting disinformation with positive information about the benefits of democracy. He notes that Russia understands the power of information warfare and invests heavily in it for a significant return on investment. He delves into a specific case where a Russian YouTube channel spread misinformation about riots in Southport, UK, highlighting how fake news can escalate and gain international attention. He explains how seemingly independent YouTube channels can originate from Russia, disseminate false information, and then this information gets picked up by local and international news, eventually being fed back into Russia as "proof" of their narrative. Jonathan emphasises the threat disinformation poses to democracy, using Georgia as a case study where it's used to influence elections and undermine pro-Western sentiment. He encourages viewers to stay informed, be vigilant, and promote transparency to combat such campaigns.
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Twitter's Role in Disinformation and Elon Musk's Challenges
🎦 16:02-20:30⏩
Jonathan discusses how Twitter (now X) has become problematic for its role in facilitating the spread of disinformation, especially since Elon Musk's takeover. He critiques Musk's inaction against bots and fake accounts despite initial pledges to address the issue. He expresses concern about the mass advertiser boycott that's led to a considerable revenue collapse for Twitter and Musk's admission of a potential bankruptcy risk. Jonathan also mentions the dilemma Musk faces in balancing his investments in Twitter and Tesla. Despite acknowledging Twitter's problems and users' concerns, Jonathan admits to still using the platform due to its value as an aggregator of information from various sources including mainstream media, individuals on the ground in Ukraine and Russia, and the OSINT community. He expresses his wish for a change in Twitter's management to curb the spread of disinformation.
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SLB (Schlumberger) Expands Operations in Russia Despite Sanctions
🎦 20:30-22:09⏩
Jonathan reports on Texas-based oil field services company SLB (formerly Schlumberger) expanding its operations in Russia despite sanctions. He notes SLB's continued presence in Russia even after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, signing new contracts and advertising numerous job openings, while other oil giants ceased operations. He criticises SLB for seemingly circumventing sanctions by halting direct imports from its facilities abroad but continuing to import equipment and technology from alternative sources to support the Russian oil industry. Jonathan deems SLB's actions morally dubious.
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Rosatom, Russia's Nuclear Giant, Uses Dutch Subsidiary to Move Profits
🎦 22:09-22:40⏩
Jonathan brings to light Russian nuclear energy company, Rosatom, utilising a Dutch subsidiary to move hundreds of millions of dollars in profits, effectively circumventing sanctions. He expresses his approval of media outlets exposing these companies and hopes for consequences to follow.
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Russia Extends Ban on Gasoline Exports Due to Ukraine's Attacks
🎦 22:40-23:35⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has extended its ban on gasoline exports, citing Ukraine's successful attacks on refineries and oil depots. This extension signifies the ongoing challenges Russia faces in maintaining its fossil fuel industry.
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Ukraine's Labour Crunch, Gas Transit, and Arson Suspects in Croatia
🎦 23:35-26:34⏩
Jonathan discusses the labour crunch affecting Ukraine's economy due to men joining the military and people fleeing the country. He notes that despite this challenge and the incursion into Kursk, both Ukraine and Russia plan to continue gas transit to Europe, indicating its importance to both countries. He also reports on the arrest of three Ukrainians suspected of arson in Croatia, involving the destruction of 22 vessels. While the motive remains unclear, Jonathan speculates that the arson could have been targeting a Russian oligarch's boat.
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New Information on the Nord Stream Pipeline Destruction and Its Implications
🎦 26:34-34:08⏩
Jonathan dives into the recently revealed information about the Nord Stream pipeline destruction, citing a report from the Wall Street Journal. The report suggests that Ukrainian President Zelensky initially approved a plan to destroy the pipeline, but later attempted to halt it after pressure from the CIA. However, General Valery Zaluzhny, then Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, allegedly disregarded the order and proceeded with a modified plan. This revelation has caused tension between Ukraine and Germany, potentially explaining Germany's recent reluctance to provide further military aid to Ukraine. Jonathan acknowledges the moral dilemma surrounding the incident, as the outcome, while beneficial to Europe and Ukraine in weakening Russia's energy leverage, involved an attack on critical infrastructure. He discusses the potential for this to further strain relations between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, who have had public disagreements in the past. Jonathan also questions the thoroughness of the investigation, pointing out inconsistencies in the Polish authorities' handling of evidence. He concludes by acknowledging the strategic success of the pipeline's destruction for Ukraine but reiterates the moral complexities involved and the potential ramifications for international support.
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Lithuania, Belarus, Russia and Guatemala Updates
🎦 34:08-35:38⏩
Jonathan shares updates on several countries:
- Lithuania plans to formally end customs cooperation agreements with Belarus and Russia, further isolating the two countries.
- Ukraine has initiated free trade agreement talks with Guatemala, strengthening ties with a country that has been vocally supportive of Ukraine since the war began. Jonathan praises Guatemala's previous strong stance against Russia at the UN.
US Senator Supports Ukraine's Incursion into Kursk and Lifting Targeting Restrictions
🎦 35:38-38:15⏩
Jonathan discusses US Senator Mark Kelly's (Democrat, Arizona) statement that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk could be a turning point in the war. Kelly believes this bold move by Ukraine has put Russia on the back foot. He also expresses his support for Ukraine using US-provided weapons in Kursk. Jonathan also highlights Republican Representative Mike Turner's call for President Biden to lift targeting restrictions on Ukraine, allowing them to strike Russian military targets within Russia. This signifies growing bipartisan support in the US for Ukraine to take a more offensive approach. Jonathan expresses his hope that a potential Harris administration would take a stronger stance on supporting Ukraine.
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Russia Denies Negotiations with Ukraine over Energy Infrastructure
🎦 38:15-39:46⏩
Jonathan reports on Russia's denial of engaging in indirect negotiations with Ukraine in Qatar, aiming to halt strikes on energy infrastructure. Russia claims these reports are baseless. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the validity of these alleged negotiations and their disruption due to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk. He points out that the incursion into Kursk is a significant development, potentially a risky gamble by Ukraine. He sees it as a game of "chicken" to test Russia's resolve, acknowledging the potential for both sides to face serious consequences.
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Ukraine's Incursion into Kursk: A High-Stakes Gamble
🎦 39:46-41:43⏩
Jonathan analyses the Ukraine's incursion into Kursk and refers to a meme depicting both Ukraine invading Russia and Russia invading Ukraine with Russia telling Ukraine off. He believes that the Ukrainians are using this as a way of testing Russia’s resolve and seeing if they will crumble, although it is a risky strategy as the Ukrainian’s could crumble in Kursk as the Russians are making advances into Kupiansk. He summarises by saying that this is a very interesting time in the war, and he is unsure what each side will do next.
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Wrap Up
🎦 41:43-41:50⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, acknowledges the longer than usual length of the video, and signs off.
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