Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Drone use Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"if the Russians are producing that many [drones] you would see them...on the front line you're not seeing it...and here's the data to suggest that...sometimes I wonder...imposter syndrome whether i know what i'm talking about and whether my my speculations are just pulled out my posterior but actually this this is backed up by data and that that's that's really good"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War update for 4th January 2024. He explains that he's running a little late as he had a late one last night!
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russia-Ukraine War: Ukrainian General Staff report heavy Russian losses for 3rd January 2024
🎦 00:17-03:12⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses on 3rd January 2024, are 780 personnel, 12 tanks, 21 armoured personnel vehicles, and 28 artillery systems. Jonathan notes that although this is high, it is lower than the peak loss times seen previously. He goes on to explain that analysis of Dell's statistics (compiled using data from the UGS) suggest that a degradation of Russian artillery pieces is impacting their operational capacity: "And that then seems to be translating into firing 10,000 rounds a day at a fire rate...So the Russians are having to get ammunition from abroad, from North Korea...And that would suggest that they don't have the stockpiles of their own ammunition." Jonathan highlights that Russia also doesn't have the production capacity to maintain earlier fire rates.
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Ukraine War: Visually Confirmed Russian Equipment Losses - Andrew Perpetua's Data
🎦 03:12-05:56⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed Russian vehicle losses using data curated by Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua). He notes that these figures are subject to reporting bias and will likely underrepresent the true number. Of note is the destruction of a Russian Zoopark 1M counter battery radar system in December 2023 and a Zala KYB launch vehicle which Jonathan describes as a "high value hit".
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Ukraine War: Analysis of Drone Warfare (FPV and Lancet) by Daniel
🎦 06:55-19:43⏩
Jonathan analyses data on drone warfare in Ukraine. He uses data from August-December 2023 that has been collected and analysed by Daniel using figures from Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua). Daniel's analysis focuses on First Person View (FPV) drones and Lancet loitering munitions used by both the Ukrainians and Russians. Jonathan reminds viewers that this data is subject to drone selection bias: "as you as you can see here the ratios are still very much in favor of the Ukrainians that's about three to one Russian to Ukrainian loss there although obviously it would be nicer if the ratio was even higher in terms of sort of as high as five to one would be preferable obviously if you're pro-Ukraine right" Key findings from the analysis are:
- From August to December 2023 the Ukrainians have used FPV drones against Russian infantry more than the Russians have against Ukrainian infantry, although this changed in December when Russian use of FPVs against Ukrainian infantry spiked. Jonathan suggests this spike may coincide with increased Russian offensives in the Donbas.
- The Ukrainians are far better at targeting vehicles than the Russians: "ukrainians hold a position of complete dominance over their russian adversary in this area". Jonathan suggests this may be because the Ukrainians have more drones, use drones more frequently, have better trained drone operators and because the Russians have more vehicles close to the front lines that can be targeted.
- Between August-December 2023, Russians used 1,485 FPV drones compared to 2,874 by the Ukrainians.
- Despite widespread speculation in the Spring of 2023 that Russia would dominate drone warfare, this has not come to pass. Jonathan comments that he did not believe Russian claims they were producing 300,000 FPVs per month at a rate 6 times that of the Ukrainians. "if the Russians are producing that many you would see them you would see that production reflected on the front line you're not seeing it reflected on the front line and here's the data to suggest that so I'm really happy that because sometimes I wonder you know imposter syndrome whether i know what i'm talking about and whether my my speculations are just pulled out my posterior but actually this this is backed up by data and that that's that's really good um"
- Jonathan concludes that Ukraine needs more FPV drones to preserve artillery shells for future offensives and to counter the growing threat posed by cheap FPVs. He adds that Ukrainian training of FPV drone operators is helping them stay ahead of the Russians: "This will likely lead to the retention of such dominance thanks to the advantage built and the lower likelihood of losing experienced drone operators who are now also being hunted down by ukraine drone operators"
- Finally, Jonathan highlights a user comment in the chat who echoes his earlier comments about Russian drone production: “My suspicion is analysts took Russian claims about ramping up drone production at face value, and they should know better.”
Russia-Ukraine War: Female Russian prisoners being sent to front lines
🎦 19:43-20:25⏩
Jonathan shares a picture of what appears to be female Russian prisoners who have been sent to fight on the front lines in exchange for their freedom. A user in the chat, Jane Keeves, comments “Putin likely really is going to kill everyone in Russia before this is over”
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Russia-Ukraine War: Russian soldier surrenders increasing, 12 surrender after calling 'I Want to Live' hotline
🎦 20:26-24:30⏩
Jonathan discusses an article published in the Financial Times which reveals that increasing numbers of Russian soldiers are surrendering to Ukrainian forces, many of whom are calling the 'I want to live' hotline, set up by Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) in September 2022. Key points from the article:
- 12 Russian soldiers recently surrendered to Ukrainian forces after calling the hotline. Their surrender (codenamed Operation Berenya by GUR) provided Ukraine with valuable battlefield intelligence.
- As of December 2023, 220 Russian soldiers have surrendered via the hotline, with more than 1,000 cases pending.
- The hotline has received 26,000 calls with 46 million visits to the accompanying website (blocked in Russia but accessible via VPN).
- The hotline is staffed 24/7 by military psychologists, analysts trained to de-escalate and gather intelligence from Russian soldiers.
- Surrendering Russian soldiers often fear being killed by their own comrades as well as facing reprisals upon their return to Russia.
- Ukrainian authorities have promised to treat Russian POWs in accordance with the Geneva Conventions, offering them medical care, food and the possibility of a prisoner exchange.
- The article also notes that morale amongst Russian troops is low and many Russian soldiers are deserting due to poor treatment by their commanders.
- Jonathan concludes by sharing that Ukraine's military intelligence has reported that Russia has stopped granting leave to injured soldiers for fear of desertion and that medical facilities in occupied Ukraine are overrun, resulting in lightly wounded soldiers being refused treatment.
Ukraine War: Overnight Strikes and explosions in Belgorod and Kursk
🎦 24:30-36:21⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian Su-34 fighter jet was destroyed on 4th January 2024 at the Chagall airfield in Chelyabinsk, Russia. Ukrainska Pravda, citing sources in the Ukrainian security services, reported that the attack was carried out by Ukraine's Defence Ministry's GUR. Jonathan also mentions an unconfirmed rumour that a Russian plane was shot down in Belgorod (potentially by Russian air defences), but this cannot be verified. He adds that Russian Telegram channels were quick to share images of missile fragments which damaged civilian property in Belgorod before hastily deleting the posts when it emerged the fragments came from a Russian Pantsir S-1 air defence system. Images also emerged from Belgorod of an unexploded Russian FAB-500 bomb. Jonathan comments sardonically: "Maybe they ran out of washing machines...But, yeah, so this is a guide kit on a Russian bomb. Didn't explode, but it's, yeah, landed in Russia in a field." In occupied Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia, loud explosions were heard on the morning of 4th January and several Russian cities including Zheleznogorsk, Kursk, experienced power outages after Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure facilities.
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Ukraine War: Ammunition shortages impacting Ukrainian forces on the front lines
🎦 36:21-37:50⏩
Jonathan shares a message he received from a Ukrainian/Estonian source on the front lines in Ukraine: "I have an artillery, a unit who just told me that they have been holding their positions for half a year nearly and now have to start falling back because the lack of ammunition, it’s dropped 80 to 90 percent from six months ago...the west needs to effing wake up, you’re costing lives." Jonathan goes on to say that Ukrainian forces on the front lines are desperately short of artillery ammunition which is impacting their fire rate which currently stands at 2,000 rounds per day. This is in stark contrast to six months ago when the Ukrainians were firing 8,000 rounds per day, surpassing the Russian rate.
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Ukraine War: 230 Ukrainian POWs return home after prisoner swap
🎦 37:50-38:41⏩
Jonathan shares the good news that 230 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) have been freed from Russian captivity following a prisoner swap, including Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence. Jonathan believes that there will be further prisoner exchanges to come.
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Ukraine War: Russian hackers suspected of disrupting Kyivstar mobile network
🎦 38:41-39:21⏩
The recent disruption to Ukrainian mobile network Kyivstar is believed to have been caused by Russian hackers. The SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) suspect that a group linked to Russian intelligence (Sandworm) were behind the cyberattack and had been in the system for months beforehand.
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Ukraine War: John Kirby's assessment of the current situation
🎦 39:21-41:37⏩
Jonathan plays a clip from a recent press briefing by John Kirby, United States National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications. In the clip, Kirby gives his assessment of the current military capabilities of Russia. Key points:
- Russia is reliant on other countries to replenish its stockpiles of artillery shells, missiles and drones.
- Kirby acknowledges that the war has taken a toll on Russia's war-making capabilities but points out that they still have a sizable air force and ground capability.
- Russia has an advantage over Ukraine when it comes to manpower. Unlike Zelenskyy, Putin is not accountable to the Russian people and is free to mobilise prisoners and throw manpower at the situation in Ukraine.
- The Russian military is still plagued by issues with low morale and poor leadership.
- Russia has had little success on the ground and has yet to launch their much anticipated counteroffensive.
Jonathan concludes by saying "so that's a really damning indictment in the end there of where the russians are at anyway"
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Wrap up
🎦 41:37-41:41⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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