Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: FIRMS Pt 2 - When Absence of Evidence IS Evidence of Absence
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"If you would expect there to be evidence and evidence isn't there, that is evidence of absence."
Hello Team!
Jonathan loves engaging with arguments, even from trolls, because:
- If he's wrong about something, he needs to know so he can change his position. He can't bury his head in the sand.
- In philosophy, if some of your foundational "bricks" are incorrect, your whole worldview is shaky.
- Viewers learn a lot when he debunks accusations, e.g. about how FIRMS data works.
The Accusation
A pro-Russian commenter accused Jonathan of:
- Using FIRMS data inconsistently to confirm a strike in Dnipro but not a claimed strike on a hangar in Berislav.
- Ignoring the lack of FIRMS data for a fire on a roof in Kyiv's Holosiivskyi district after a drone was shot down.
FIRMS Data for Kyiv
Looking at FIRMS data for Kyiv over a 4 week period:
- There is only 1 fire detected in the entire Kyiv oblast, despite multiple known incidents.
- This could be due to some kind of operational security blacking out FIRMS data for Kyiv, or other reasons.
The Holosiivskyi Fire
Mayor Klitschko reported that on the night of the accusation:
- 20+ drones were shot down over Kyiv
- A drone hit the roof of a 3-story building in the Holosiivskyi district, starting a fire
- An image suggests the fire was put out quickly and damage was not extensive
FIRMS Limitations
FIRMS has several limitations in detecting fires:
- It can reliably detect fires of 1000 sq m, and as small as 50 sq m under optimal conditions
- Fires can go undetected if they start and end between satellite passes
- Clouds, heavy smoke or tree cover can obscure fires
- Fires that are too small or not hot enough may not be detected
Absence of Evidence
The philosophical maxim "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" is often used incorrectly.
- If you would expect evidence of something and don't find it, that is evidence of absence
- E.g. If a huge earthquake was claimed but there was zero evidence, that's good reason to doubt the claim
- But if a small event was claimed, lack of evidence is not necessarily proof it didn't occur
Applying This to the War Claims
- For the claimed hangar strike in Berislav destroying 25 vehicles, you'd expect a large, long-lasting fire that FIRMS would likely detect. Lack of FIRMS data here is evidence it didn't happen.
- For the Holosiivskyi roof fire, it's plausible it was too small and brief to be detected by FIRMS, especially with partial cloud cover. Lack of FIRMS data is not strong evidence against it occurring, and we have visual evidence and official statements that it did occur.
Wrap up
In summary:
- We need to understand the context and limitations of evidence like FIRMS
- Absence of expected evidence can be evidence of absence
- But absence of evidence for small, brief events is not necessarily strong evidence against them
- Jonathan enjoys bringing some philosophy into analyzing the reliability of Russian vs Ukrainian claims about the war
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
The transcript was clear and I did not have any issues understanding the content or arguments made. The FIRMS data and absence of evidence concepts were well explained with relatable examples.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Understand the context and key points made in the video, including:
The importance of being open to being wrong and changing your position based on evidence
The accusation made by a pro-Russian commenter about lack of FIRMS data for certain claimed strikes
How FIRMS data works and its limitations in detecting fires
The philosophical concept of "absence of evidence" and when it can be considered evidence of absence
Organize the content into key topics, providing enough context for each
Bold key terms like FIRMS, absence of evidence, etc.
Use bullet points to break up long paragraphs and improve readability
Maintain Jonathan's voice and philosophical arguments
Select a key quote that encapsulates the main message of the video
