Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"As long as Russia sits on the UNSC, this council is inherently broken and needs to be disbanded."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:15⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the second part of his Ukraine War News update for the 5th of January 2024, mentioning that there's a lot to get through.

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Ukraine: F-16 Training Update

🎦 00:15-02:35⏩

Jonathan discusses a recent announcement by the Pentagon stating that Ukrainian pilots are expected to finish F-16 training by the end of 2024. There has been some speculation around the timescale given that the initial aim was to have pilots trained by the Spring, however, this is likely to refer only to training provided by the United States. Jonathan explains that training is also underway in Europe, with Belgium confirming that they are sending two F-16Bs to Denmark, along with personnel, to assist with training. Jonathan goes on to discuss a Newsweek article claiming that the US is planning to send destroyed ATACMS to Ukraine. The Pentagon has since confirmed that this is untrue, and Jonathan reassures his viewers that the US army would not destroy valuable military equipment that could be sent to Ukraine. Jonathan explains that he was sceptical about the claims and urges caution and skepticism when reading such headlines. He humorously remarks "It's easy to get up in arms about stuff without thinking 'Hang on, chill out, let's see whether that's actually what's going on here'". He adds that often we should be "more skeptical".

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Germany: Military Aid Package for Ukraine

🎦 02:35-08:06⏩

Jonathan reports that Germany is "stepping up" their military aid provision to Ukraine. He provides details of Germany's latest military aid package which includes a Skynex air defence system, 10 Marder I1A3 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 HENSOLDT TRML-4D air surveillance radar units, an unspecified number of IRIS-T SLM missiles and Leopard 2 ammunition, 9,000 155mm artillery rounds, two Wisent mine-clearing vehicles, 10 ground surveillance radars, 30 drone detection systems, 10 Zetros trucks, three truck tractors and much more. Germany is also planning to send four more IRIS-T air defence systems, another Skynex air defence system, 8,000 anti-tank mines, 20 drone detection systems and 41 Mercedes trucks. Jonathan explains that Rheinmetall has confirmed that a "comprehensive spare parts package" for Leopard 2A6 tanks was ordered (and financed) by Germany in December 2023 to address the shortage of spare parts for the repair of damaged tanks returning from the frontline. He adds that a maintenance centre (operated by Rheinmetall and KMW) has signed a contract with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence to improve the supply of spare parts in both Ukraine and Lithuania. Jonathan observes that this is "really good" and that Germany is stepping up, adding that "they really are at the forefront of equipment provision to Ukraine" but are still yet to commit to sending Taurus missiles.

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Ukraine: Citizens To Build FPV Drones

🎦 08:06-12:25⏩

Jonathan reports that according to Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, every Ukrainian can assemble an FPV drone for the military. Jonathan explains that Fedorov's role pre-war was to oversee Ukraine's digital transformation and that he has taken on a larger role since the beginning of the war. This leads Jonathan to discuss a comment made by a viewer, Andrew Perpetua, about the amount of drone footage emerging from the Russian side, arguing that it contradicts Jonathan's previous assertion that Russia is not producing the 300,000 drones per month that they claim. Jonathan explains that this figure would equate to 600,000 drones over two months, which, he argues, is not supported by the footage being released. Perpetua went on to clarify in a subsequent thread, that whilst there is a lot of footage of Russian drones in operation, they are being used to target low-value targets, such as trenches and dugouts, which would traditionally have been targeted using artillery. Jonathan suggests that this could indicate a shortage of artillery pieces or ammunition, prompting Russia to use readily available FPV drones as a replacement. Jonathan acknowledges that he may need to revise his estimate of the number of drones in operation, but stands by his assertion that Russia is not producing drones on the scale they claim. Jonathan observes that Ukraine is seeking to "eke out every competitive advantage" in the drone war and explains that citizens can register via an online portal, receive training and then build drones which are sent to the frontline to support the war effort. He concludes by saying "That's fantastic".

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France: Financial Aid To Support Ukrainian Refugees

🎦 12:25-15:45⏩

Jonathan discusses figures released by the French Ministry of the Interior which show that the French government has spent €490 million in support of Ukrainian refugees over the past year. He goes on to highlight that the NATO defence spending target is 2% of GDP, and that 11 countries, including Poland, have met this target. Jonathan argues that in addition to military aid, financial support provided to Ukraine by NATO allies in areas such as humanitarian aid, and refugee support, should also be considered when assessing a country's overall contribution to the defence of Ukraine. He contends that it is "too simplistic" to judge a country's commitment to NATO based solely on their reported defence spending, and that this does not provide a complete picture. Jonathan acknowledges that there are disparities in the number of refugees hosted by different EU nations, and that factors, such as geographical proximity to Ukraine and the presence of a pre-existing diaspora community, have led many Ukrainians to seek refuge in neighbouring countries. Despite hosting fewer refugees than countries like Germany, Jonathan emphasises that France is making a significant financial contribution to supporting Ukrainian refugees.

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Ukraine: D-2111 Unmanned Ground Robot Being Tested

🎦 15:45-16:28⏩

Ukraine has started testing a new unmanned ground robot (D-2111), capable of conducting reconnaissance, defending positions and storming enemy positions. Jonathan explains that the D-2111 can be used to safely deliver ammunition and supplies to the frontline and describes it as a "ground drone that can drive from A to B" and that depending on requirements, supplies or a mounted gun can be added. He concludes by observing that the D-2111 is "pretty useful".

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United States: Military Aid to Ukraine May Reduce in 2024

🎦 16:28-17:05⏩

Jonathan reports that the US State Department has indicated that the US may not be able to continue supporting Ukraine at the same level as in 2022 and 2023. He explains that he believes this is because 2024 will be a challenging year for the US given the upcoming presidential election. He adds that whilst the US remains committed to supporting Ukraine "for as long as it takes" a reduction in funding will mean it will "take even longer".

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Russia: Offers Citizenship To Foreigners Joining Military

🎦 17:05-17:18⏩

Jonathan reports that Putin has signed a decree offering Russian citizenship to any foreigners signing up to fight in the Russian armed forces. The decree will also be extended to include family members of military personnel. Jonathan observes that "they really are trying to do that crypto mobilization".

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Russia: 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV Self-Propelled Howitzer Enters Serial Production

🎦 17:18-18:05⏩

Jonathan reports that Russia's state-owned defence conglomerate, Rostec, has confirmed that the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV self-propelled howitzer entered serial production in 2023 and that the first finished models have been delivered to the Russian military. Jonathan expresses some concern, observing that this is a "worry for Ukraine" as it indicates that Russia is continuing to produce new equipment. He explains that the 2S35 is a new, heavier self-propelled gun but is based on the older T-90 chassis and engine.

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Russia: Using North Korean Ballistic Missiles in Ukraine

🎦 18:05-20:03⏩

Jonathan reports that images shared by the Ukrainian Telegram channel, Colonel of the General Staff, purport to show the wreckage of a North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile, recovered from the Kharkiv region following a Russian missile strike. Jonathan states that there have been at least two confirmed instances of Russian forces using North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine, with the second occurring in the Zaporizhzhia region. Jonathan explains that in response to this development, John Kirby, spokesperson for the US National Security Council, confirmed in a press briefing that North Korea has recently supplied Russia with ballistic missile launchers and several ballistic missiles and that these missiles have a range of almost 900km. He added that Russia is providing North Korea with military assistance, including fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armoured vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment and other advanced technology.

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Russia-North Korea: Violating UN Security Council Resolutions

🎦 20:03-23:26⏩

Jonathan expresses concern about the transfer of North Korean ballistic missiles to Russia, and quotes John Kirby who condemned Russia's actions, stating that their procurement of ballistic missiles from North Korea "directly violates multiple UN Security Council Resolutions". He added that the US will be raising the issue with allies at the UN Security Council to demand that Russia is held accountable for violating its international obligations. Jonathan highlights the fact that UN Security Council Resolution 1718 specifically prohibits North Korea from both importing and exporting missiles and missile systems. He goes on to explain that the resolution, which was adopted in October 2006, was agreed upon unanimously, including by Russia, who, at the time, could not have imagined needing to source weapons and ammunition from North Korea. Jonathan cites this as an example of how the UN and UNSC have become "worthless" and argues that as long as Russia continues to hold a seat on the UNSC, it will remain "inherently broken" and "needs to be disbanded". He questions Russia's claim to the UNSC seat, arguing that it was originally held by the USSR, not Russia, and that following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the seat could have passed to any of the former Soviet Republics, including Ukraine. Jonathan questions why Russia was allowed to assume the seat and suggests that perhaps Ukraine should hold the seat. Jonathan reveals that a meeting of the UNSC has been called for the 10th of January, and questions whether this will be the start of the process to remove Russia from the UNSC. He expresses his hope that Russia will be removed, and acknowledges a comment from a viewer (W.Bin), who has been a vocal supporter of calls to remove Russia from the UNSC.

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Russia: Repeatedly Violates Agreements

🎦 23:26-24:37⏩

Jonathan opines that "more important" than the upcoming UNSC meeting is the fact that Russia habitually disregards agreements and treaties when it suits their objectives. He argues that agreements with Russia are not made in good faith, and that they use such agreements as a means of "keeping enemies at bay", before disregarding them. Jonathan cites Russia's violation of the Budapest Memorandum as a prime example of this behaviour. Jonathan quotes a comment from a viewer, who describes Russia as "a deeply uncivilised and imperial thinking country, which only understands a language of absolute violence" and believes that Putin will not change, "not even when we destroy another million Russians". The commenter goes on to say that Putin "will order [Russians] to fight until his beloved Russian empire is restored, or somebody puts a 9-millimeter bullet between his eyes, whichever comes first". Jonathan describes this comment as "interesting".

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United States: Convenes UN Security Council & Announces New Sanctions

🎦 24:37-26:16⏩

Jonathan reports that the United States has convened a meeting of the UN Security Council in response to North Korea supplying Russia with ballistic missiles. He explains that the meeting is scheduled to take place on the 10th of January. Jonathan goes on to say that the US is planning to introduce additional sanctions targeting those involved in facilitating arms transfers between Russia, North Korea and Iran. He explains that whilst Iran has not yet provided Russia with any ballistic missiles, there are concerns that they are planning to do so. Jonathan quotes John Kirby, who has said that the US will continue to "expose these arms deals" and that they will "not allow countries to aid Russia's war machine in secret".

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Jonathan: The West Needs to Step Up Support For Ukraine

🎦 26:16-27:25⏩

Jonathan expresses his view that Russia's actions justify their immediate removal from the UN Security Council. He suggests that whilst it would be unwise for the US to lead the charge, as this could be perceived as reigniting the Cold War, the remaining members of the UN Security Council should pressure the US to take action against Russia. Jonathan argues that North Korea's delivery of long-range ballistic missiles (900km range) to Russia sets a precedent and undermines the arguments of those opposed to the US and other nations supplying Ukraine with longer-range weapons, such as ATACMS, as the "ship has already left port". Jonathan observes that the emerging alliance between Russia, North Korea, Iran and potentially China, is very concerning and that all are demonstrating greater solidarity than many of Ukraine's Western allies. He concludes by stating that "we all need to step up" and stop "Russia, North Korea and Iran taking the piss".

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Russia: North Korean Missile Range

🎦 27:25-29:37⏩

Jonathan references a comment from a viewer (War Translator) who, based on publicly available information, estimates the range of the North Korean missiles fired by Russia to be 460km. Jonathan questions why the missiles, which have a maximum range of 900km, were not fired to their full range. He speculates that there may have been several reasons, including the possibility of a misfire (given that the missile landed in an empty field) or that Russia had deliberately chosen to limit the range of the missile. He goes on to suggest several possible explanations for this, including the possibility that they are experimenting with the trajectory of the missile to maximise its kinetic energy upon impact. Jonathan shares analysis from open-source intelligence analyst, Darryl Massicott, who has speculated that Russia may be, either intentionally or unintentionally, establishing a precedent for the use of shorter-range, foreign-supplied missiles, in an attempt to discourage Western allies from providing Ukraine with longer-range missiles, such as ATACMS or Taurus (500km range). Jonathan also shares a comment from open-source intelligence analyst Mick Ryan, who observes that "the arsenal of authoritarians encompassing Russia, China, Iran and North Korea takes another step forward in its development". Ryan expresses his hope that Western politicians will respond more robustly in 2024 and that efforts to date have been "limp".

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North Korea & South Korea: Shelling Incident

🎦 29:37-30:46⏩

Jonathan reports that tensions are rising between North Korea and South Korea following the firing of more than 200 artillery shells by North Korea towards the South Korean islands of Yeonpyeong and Byangyong, which are located in the Yellow Sea. Jonathan explains that the islands are situated in a "grey zone" between the two Koreas. South Korean authorities have announced the evacuation of residents from the islands, in response to the incident. It is unclear whether the shelling was in response to South Korea conducting live-fire military exercises in the area, or whether the shelling was intended as a warning. Jonathan observes that these types of incidents are not uncommon, and expresses his view that this latest incident strengthens the argument for South Korea to provide greater and more explicit support for Ukraine.

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United States: Nikki Haley & Support for Ukraine

🎦 30:46-35:09⏩

Jonathan plays a clip from an interview with a Republican voter who supports Nikki Haley in the upcoming presidential election. The voter states that he does not support Donald Trump, and that he would not vote for him "under any circumstances". The voter believes that Haley would be unlikely to accept a position as Trump's running mate given her support for Ukraine, which he describes as "the top issue of the election for me". He praises Haley's stance on Ukraine, stating that she "stands on the right side of history". Jonathan then plays a clip of Nikki Haley addressing a crowd in which she outlines why support for Ukraine is so important. She argues that Ukraine is on the frontline of a much larger struggle against authoritarianism and that it is vital to "take these thugs seriously", highlighting that both Hamas and China were very open about their intentions towards Israel and Hong Kong respectively. She warns that Russia has stated that following Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states will be next, which would result in the United States being drawn into a war with Russia as a result of its NATO membership. Haley argues that "this is about preventing war, it's always been about preventing war". Jonathan describes Haley's words as "really good messaging". He acknowledges that support for Ukraine amongst Republicans is divided and praises Haley's performance stating that "she's made the case for Ukraine out here today". Jonathan concludes by saying that the Biden administration has not done enough to get its messaging across regarding the importance of supporting Ukraine.

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Poland: Military Spending

🎦 35:09-36:05⏩

Jonathan turns his attention to Poland's military spending, which, he explains, could be as high as 4.2% of GDP. He goes on to say that Poland's military will receive US$40 billion in funding with 56% allocated for new equipment, modernization programmes, and purchases. Jonathan acknowledges that questions remain about how Poland will finance its ambitious military spending programme, but suggests that the investment could act as a stimulus for the Polish economy, creating jobs in manufacturing and licensing. He also observes that the investment represents a significant boon to the US defence industry. Jonathan concludes by stating that Poland is one of 11 NATO members to meet their 2% of GDP military spending target.

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Poland-Ukraine Border: Delays

🎦 36:05-36:22⏩

Jonathan reports that there are currently 2,000 trucks waiting to cross the border from Poland into Ukraine. Andriy Demchenko, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Border Guard Service has confirmed that four border crossings between the two countries have been blocked since that morning.

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Serbia: Political Repression & Authoritarianism

🎦 36:22-38:20⏩

Jonathan expresses his concerns about increasing authoritarianism in Serbia. He explains that Serbian intelligence services are targeting political opponents of President Vucic. He shares a comment from Ivana Stradnik, who believes that 2024 will be a decisive year for Serbia, and that it will either become "Belarus or a civilised European country". Jonathan goes on to provide details of an incident involving opposition politician Borko Stefanovic, who was recently attacked and beaten by members of the Serbian Secret Service (BIA). Following the attack, Stefanovic's house was raided by police, who claim that they are investigating allegations of "incitement to national hatred", following a visit by Stefanovic to Kosovo, during which he laid flowers on the graves of Albanians. Jonathan condemns the attack on Stefanovic, and the increasingly authoritarian actions of the Vucic regime, stating that it is "absolutely imperative for the EU and the US to categorically shift their pro-regime appeasement posture" and end their policy of appeasement. He acknowledges, however, that taking a tougher stance could backfire and drive Vucic further into the arms of Russia. Jonathan shares a comment from a viewer calling for the immediate suspension of Serbia's EU accession process and the imposition of sanctions against Vucic.

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Russia: Oil Exports Impacted by US Sanctions

🎦 38:20-41:35⏩

Jonathan reports that according to Bloomberg, Russia is experiencing problems with its oil exports as a result of sanctions imposed by the United States, which are impacting its ability to sell oil to India. Over the past month, 14 tankers transporting Russian oil to India have been either intercepted, forced to turn back, or have disabled the onboard tracking systems that log their location. Jonathan goes on to explain that Russia has been forced to reduce oil production in line with OPEC quotas in an attempt to increase the price of oil. However, the US has responded by increasing its own oil production to counter the OPEC cuts, keeping oil prices artificially low. This has created a situation where Russia is earning less from its oil, despite reducing production. To make matters worse for Russia, the US has also been pressuring India to reduce its reliance on Russian oil. As a result of this pressure, India has started turning away some shipments of Russian oil, further adding to Russia's problems.

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Russia: National Wealth Fund & The Economy

🎦 41:35-45:52⏩

Jonathan explains that Russia is facing severe economic challenges as a result of its dwindling financial reserves and the sanctions imposed on it by the West. Jonathan explains that in the past, Russia has used two sovereign wealth funds; the Reserve Fund, and the National Wealth Fund, to protect its economy. He explains that the Reserve Fund was used to cover shortfalls when oil and gas revenues fell, whilst the National Wealth Fund invests in higher-risk, higher-return investment vehicles, and was also used to fund federal budget expenditures. Jonathan goes on to explain that Russia's Reserve Fund was exhausted in 2017, leaving only the National Wealth Fund. According to official Russian figures, the National Wealth Fund is currently valued at US$150 billion. However, Jonathan explains that the true value of the fund is difficult to assess, as Russia has combined the fund with its international currency reserves, making it impossible to know how much of it is liquid. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has stated that the National Wealth Fund will be US$69 billion by the end of the year. Jonathan shares unconfirmed reports from a viewer who claims that, according to sources inside Russia, the National Wealth Fund could be as low as US$43 billion. He explains that if true, this would leave the Russian economy extremely vulnerable and would have a significant impact on the Kremlin's ability to prop up the Rouble, and to fund the war in Ukraine. Jonathan questions how long Russia will be able to sustain its current level of spending before the economy begins to collapse. Jonathan goes on to discuss a cynical conspiracy theory that has been circulating which postulates that the US is deliberately drip-feeding military aid to Ukraine to prolong the war and inflict maximum economic damage on Russia. Jonathan explains that if Ukraine had received all of the military aid it needed at the start of the war, it would have achieved a swift victory over Russia, limiting the economic damage to Russia. However, by drip-feeding aid to Ukraine, the US is deliberately prolonging the conflict to weaken Russia over the long term. Jonathan concludes by saying that there is a degree of logic to this theory, citing US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin's statement back in April 2023, in which he said that the US's objective was to "degrade" Russia's military capabilities to the point that it could never again contemplate invading a neighbour.

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Ukraine: Exports Grow by 9% in 2024

🎦 45:52-46:30⏩

Jonathan finishes by sharing some positive news from Ukraine, reporting that the country's economy minister has announced that exports have grown by 9% in 2024. He attributes this success to the recently re-established Black Sea grain corridor.

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Wrap up

🎦 46:30-46:35⏩

Jonathan signs off by asking viewers to share their thoughts in the comments below. He apologises for the length of the video.

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